2010 Oscar Predictions

Article by Terry Plucknett

Posted - 1/25/10

Many of these nominations are pretty set in stone.  The main competition will come in the second five Best Picture nominations.  With that said, let’s see what the shakedown is.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

District 9

An Education

Invictus

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Up in the Air

Projected Winner: Up in the Air

There is no way Up in the Air doesn’t win this.  If by some miracle it doesn’t, Precious is the only thing that could take it down.  District 9 seems to be the most vulnerable of the picks, but this should be where they honor this critical darling.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(500) Days of Summer

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

A Serious Man

Up

Projected Winner: Inglourious Basterds

This race is very much different than Adapted Screenplay.  It will be a shock if something else were to crack this top five, but really any of them could win.  I am picking my winner based on the idea that it is never a good idea to bet against Quentin Tarantino, and he isn’t going to win Picture or Director.  However, with The Hurt Locker being a Best Picture favorite, it is a close runner up.  Counting out the Coens at the Oscars is almost as stupid as counting out Tarantino (maybe even more so), so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if A Serious Man went home with the statue.  Pixar films have been awarded in this category before so Up is in contention too.  The only one that would be a shocker to win is (500) Days of Summer, but it is a critical darling that could be a crowd favorite underdog.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Mo’Nique – Precious

Julianne Moore – A Single Man

Projected Winner – Mo’Nique

This is Mo’Nique’s world, the other four are just living in it.  Kendrick and Farmiga are locks.  Cruz’s position is fairly strong, even though it was a weak movie.  I think the only thing that could kick her out is if the Academy considers Marion Cotillard’s performance in Nine as supporting.  If so, she outshined Cruz in the movie and could do the same at the Oscars.  Julianne Moore, Cotillard, Samantha Morton, and Maggie Gyllenhaal are battling it out for that last spot, but I chose Moore simply for her prior résumé and recognition.  It’s really a very fluid spot though.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon – Invictus

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Projected Winner – Christoph Waltz

I really don’t see how these five can be anything different.  However, this is the category where some completely out of nowhere nominees have come up in the past (William Hurt for A History of Violence and Mark Wahlberg for The Departed to name a few) so you never know.  Who have the best shot at being the random picks of this year?  Three names I would watch for to shock on nomination morning are Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker, Richard Kind for A Serious Man, and host Alec Baldwin for It’s Complicated.  It doesn’t really matter though.  Waltz has this one wrapped up.

ACTRESS

Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Projected Winner – Meryl Streep

This is a very weak year for actress.  Meryl is going to win this Oscar simply because there is not really another performance that stands out enough so give it to the actress that stands out above them all in anything.  The only thing that can stop Meryl from winning for this performance is if she is nominated for It’s Complicated instead similar to what happened to Kate Winslet last year.  If this happens, she still will probably win, but it would make the race a little more interesting.  Emily Blunt’s spot in the fab five is the only one that is not a lock.

ACTOR

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

George Clooney – Up in the Air

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

Projected Winner – Jeff Bridges

No one else is cracking this top five, just like no one is going to take this Oscar away from Jeff Bridges.  That is all there is to say.

DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

James Cameron – Avatar

Clint Eastwood – Invictus

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Projected Winner – Kathryn Bigelow

There has never been a female director that has won an Oscar, but this may be the movie that wins one for the ladies.  If not, look for James Cameron to take home another statue and be King of the World once again.  The only spot not certain in this five is Clint, but it has been a few years since he has been honored.  That either means he is due, or the Academy is sick of him.  If the latter is true, look for Lee Daniels to take that final spot for Precious.

PICTURE

Avatar

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Invictus

Nine

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

Projected Winner – Avatar

As I said before, the biggest fight for a nomination is between the second five nominees for Picture.  If you think about it, the Academy’s intent on switching the nominees to ten has worked and yet has not.  It has worked by putting some intrigue in an otherwise predictable nominee list.  However, it hasn’t worked because the reason there is a race for the bottom five picture nominees is because there aren’t ten movies with résumés worthy of being called a Best Picture nominee.  With that said, the weakest of the nominees are Nine and An Education which could be passed by the likes of The Last Station, Star Trek, The Messenger, or District 9.  As you look up and down this list, it does not necessarily scream mainstream.  The reason the Academy expanded to ten Picture nominees is to allow for more mainstream movies to make the list.  The only problem was this year many of the mainstream movies were no good.  That is why I think Avatar will win Best Picture.  In a year missing the quality in the blockbusters like we had last year, the Academy will want to justify their decision of expanding the number of nominees.  The best way to do this is award what may end up as the highest grossing movie of all time.  The race for the win at this point is really a toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, but the Academy’s desire to save face after a failed experiment at expanding the nominees will reign supreme.