2008 Oscar Predictions: October

Posted – 10/11/08

Article by Todd Plucknett

 TODD'S OSCAR TRACKER

The following thoughts are purely my opinion on what is going to happen. I have no inside knowledge or anything. I am just a movie fan who finds the whole Oscar ordeal to be fascinating, and predicting such is something that I find particularly entertaining. Here we go…

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Category Synopsis

This race is always one of the most interesting ones at the Oscars. Right now, a lot of the Best Picture frontrunners are adapted screenplays, so it is not that hard to come up with a lineup of safe picks. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button seems to be a near lock for at least this category. The Academy loves innovative storylines, and this one basically defines that characteristic. Revolutionary Road seemed to be losing steam, feeling that Sam Mendes could have been a one-hit wonder, but the newest trailer puts the film back in the race. It looks amazing. You can never really count out the box office king The Dark Knight, but a screenplay nomination could be pushing it. Slumdog Millionaire seems to be smashing the festivals, and a screenplay nomination is something that is becoming a near certainty for this Danny Boyle comedy-drama, especially with the tendency of the Academy the past five years or so to really award the independent comedies in the screenplay categories. The Road’s buzz is really building, and since it is in the Best Picture race, it should be in this category as well. Cormac McCarthy adaptations are either hit or miss though, with one being the masterpiece No Country for Old Men and the other being the somewhat unpopular All the Pretty Horses. We will see about this one, but it looks to be amazing. Doubt is a fairly sure-fire pick here. A former winner for Best Original Screenplay for Moonstruck, John Patrick Shanley is adapting his own play here with a very strong premise and a phenomenal group of actors. It will be nominated here, especially with the trailer looking as brilliant as any. Defiance is an interesting contender. It could very well be a brilliant film, with the very consistent writer-director Edward Zwick involved. I am not ready to put it into my top 5 yet, but it could possibly move in there in the near future. The Secret Life of Bees is also a solid contender with an interesting group of actors in a fantastic premise. The Reader will be nominated here. It is a reunion of nominated screenwriter in this category David Hare and nominated director Steven Daldry (who previously collaborated in the beloved The Hours). Also, Kate Winslet is on screen…Oscar gold. Frost/Nixon has about everything going for it right now, and it will most likely take a spot in the race. One other film worthy of mention is the nominee Jim Sheridan’s new film Brothers, starring Tobey Maguire, Natalie Portman, and Jake Gyllenhaal. It is a remake of a foreign film, which can either be a very good thing (The Departed). I think that it could be a contender, but not quite yet. We will have to wait for a trailer, but it looks promising.

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Doubt

Slumdog Millionaire

The Reader

Predicted winner: Frost/Nixon

Don’t count out:  The Secret Life of Bees

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Category Synopsis

This is one of my favorite categories. This is where the truly brilliant and creative minds get to shine. The discussion has to begin with Synecdoche, New York. Charlie Kaufman wrote and directed a film starring Phillip Seymour Hoffman? It will be nominated at least. Milk is a safe bet, considering its Best Picture aspirations and political premise. Rachel Getting Married could be the indie comedy in the category. Happy-Go-Lucky is very much in the race as well. Can they avoid a Mike Leigh film? Probably not. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona could also slip in there, since Allen films seemingly cannot be avoided by the Oscars either. WALL-E is a lock for a nomination, unless the lack of dialogue turns the voters away from screenplay recognition. That seems to be the only thing that can stop it at this point. The Wrestler is loved by all the festivals. We will have to wait for a wide release before putting it in this category. I get the feeling that Changeling is not going to have the wide appeal that previous Clint Eastwood movies did. Never count it out though, or Gran Torino for that matter. W. looks as if it could be the return to greatness for Oliver Stone, and I think it is very much in contention for a spot here. I was sold on the notion that the movie was bound to fail, but it has really come together. It could be great. Burn After Reading could slide in if some of the stronger contenders fail. Australia is a definite possibility, even though the trailer does not look great. I would like to think that The Visitor has a chance, but I am just not feeling it. The last film that I think is going to make a big splash is The Burning Plain. It is written and is the directorial debut for nominee Guillermo Arriaga. He has written such brilliant screenplays as Babel, Amores Perros, and Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada. This is a somewhat risky pick, but I think it is going to pan out.

The Predicted Five

The Burning Plain

W.

Milk

Synecdoche, New York

WALL-E

Predicted winner: WALL-E

Don’t count out: Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Category Synopsis

It seems to be a somewhat weak year for this category. It could turn out to be ok though. I fell that Amy Adams is the frontrunner. She looks superb in Doubt, but the only thing going against her is her costars. Viola Davis is said to be excellent in there as well. Can there really be four nominated actors from the same film in the present day? Having two in the same category doesn’t happen too often either. I think that it could very well happen here though, that is if the movie lives up to the hype. Catherine Keener will be in the race at some point for her role in The Soloist, since everyone loves her. How big is her part though? The trailer would suggest not too big, but you never know; that didn’t stop her from getting a SAG nomination for Into the Wild. Penelope Cruz is in the race as well for her crazy performance in Vicky Christina Barcelona. They just nominated her two years ago, so that could factor in negatively or positively. Elizabeth Banks has been a consistently interesting and great actress, and her role in W. could finally bring her a nomination. Charlize Theron has a few acclaimed films this year, and The Road is her best shot at another nomination. Cate Blanchett and Taraji P. Henson are going to be battling for a spot at the Oscars for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. They have given Blanchett so much recently, so I feel that it could be Henson’s turn. Former winner Marisa Tomei has received raves for The Wrestler, and she could get her third nomination here. Debra Winger has gotten great reviews for Rachel Getting Married, but the trailer would indicate that Anne Hathaway and Rosemarie DeWitt steal the show. Maybe that is just wishful thinking though. DeWitt was on one of the few television shows that I watch, Standoff, which ended up being cancelled. She was fantastic on that show, so I am hoping her performance lives up to the hype that I at least put on it. If so, she could easily get nominated. Vera Farmiga has had some very solid performances recently, most notably in the Oscar-winning The Departed, which she was ignored for. She is said to be outstanding in Nothing But the Truth, and this could be her year. Any of the actresses in The Secret Life of Bees are not out of the question, particularly Dakota Fanning, who looks excellent in it, and the Academy likes their younger performers.

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams – Doubt

Viola Davis – Doubt

Vera Farmiga – Nothing But the Truth

Charlize Theron – The Road

Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Predicted winner: Amy Adams

Don’t count out: Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Category Synopsis

This category is my favorite of all, given the fact that there are the most potential performances to be nominated, and it is the place where veteran actors or lesser known actors have the best chance to get into the spotlight. It is no secret that Heath Ledger is going to be nominated and is the frontrunner to win for The Dark Knight. Robert Downey Jr. has had a great comeback the past handful of years, and with his acclaimed performances in Tropic Thunder and The Soloist, there is a great chance that he can garner his second career nomination. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is most likely be nominated here for Doubt if he is indeed supporting. He appears to steal the show judging from the trailer. Liev Shreiber has history going for him, being the principal supporting male in an Edward Zwick film. He looks very impressive from the trailer, and his role is one that will likely give him enough scenes to truly shine in that fine cast. Kodi Smit-McPhee appears have a great chance to get nominated here for The Road. Even though he is probably technically going to be lead, he will be placed here by applying the Haley Joel Osment / Tatum O’Neal rule. I would like to think that Sam Rockwell is a contender for Frost/Nixon. He has that film, Choke, and Snow Angels, in which he gave a brilliant performance. He needs to get nominated at some point. Milk is the film that could potentially dominate this category. Josh Brolin, playing Harvey Milk’s killer, is going to live his role and be a standout in the cast. He also has W. this year was left off for No Country for Old Men last year, which always helps. That logic can also be applied to Emile Hirsch. His performance in Into the Wild was incredible and snubbed. He could slip in there also for his role in Milk. James Franco also looks excellent in Milk. With his other acclaimed performance in Pineapple Express, Franco is finally back at the top of his game. He has a good chance to get in there as well. Diego Luna also could shine in that film. Milk is really just a dream film for actors. Ralph Fiennes has a few good films this year also, those being The Reader and The Duchess. It is quite wide open this year as of right now.

The Predicted Five

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Liev Shreiber – Defiance

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

Josh Brolin – Milk

Predicted winner: Heath Ledger

Don’t count out: Robert Downey Jr. – The Soloist

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Category Synopsis

This category is one that always seems to be over long before the actual ceremony. As of right now, however, there is not really one true frontrunner. Meryl Streep’s popularity cannot be ignored. She will be nominated for Doubt, but probably not win, sadly. Nicole Kidman could get in there for Australia if the film lives up to the monumental hype put on it. After all, the last Baz Luhrmann film starred Kidman, and she and the film were nominated. Charlize Theron has a couple of performances that fit in this category, being The Burning Plain and Battle in Seattle. I do not know how the latter will be perceived, but she has a decent chance for the former, especially with The Road coming out this year also. Keira Knightley has mastered the costume period piece genre, and she could get in there this year again. Melissa Leo is a veteran actor who gave a mesmerizing performance in Frozen River. I hope she can sustain enough buzz to make it to the ceremony, but I am not feeling it. Kate Winslet has a couple hyped performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. I would bet on the latter to get her the nomination and hopefully a win finally. Sally Hawkins has dazzled the festivals for her performance in the said to be delightful Happy-Go-Lucky. Anne Hathaway has had some truly great performances in her career, and she finally now has the film that will get her a nomination, Rachel Getting Married. Kristen Scott Thomas probably should get recognized here as well for I’ve Loved You So Long. Looking at the trailer, she should be a lock. It depends on how many people see it and if they will put a foreign film actress in this category for a second straight year. I have my doubts that Angelina Jolie will get nominated for Changeling. She looks fabulous, and probably deserves a nomination, but the Academy just does not care. She should have won last year for A Mighty Heart, but they would not even nominate her. It is frustrating, but I think she will miss out this year again. Never underestimate Eastwood’s popularity though. She will have to blow everyone away to get in there, and she is very capable of doing it, especially under Eastwood’s direction.

The Predicted Five

Kristen Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky

Predicted winner: Kate Winslet

Don’t count out: Angelina Jolie - Changeling

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Category Synopsis

This is always a competitive race, but it has recently been over long before the ceremony, much like Best Actress. The leading male that sweeps the critics wins the Oscar. I do not know who that will be though. Sean Penn has to be the frontrunner for Milk. It is so within his range, and the trailer indicates that he is well on his way back to the podium. However, his Into the Wild was completely left off last year in the major categories. That may indicate a hesitancy to nominate him for some reason. Viggo Mortensen will get nominated this year most likely for The Road. Frank Langella is said to be phenomenal in Frost/Nixon, and he will earn a spot here. I think that Michael Sheen may also get nominated for that same film. Two lead actors nominated from the same film happens very few times in this category, but it is well within reason for these two actors. Benicio Del Toro should be perfect in The Argentine and Guerilla, but it may not be the Academy’s thing. Mickey Rourke is said to have blown everyone away in The Wrestler, and his comeback story should carry him to a nomination. Josh Brolin could get in there for Milk, depending on the quality of the film. Leonardo DiCaprio will win at some point, but I am holding out for The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt. His performances in Revolutionary Road and Body of Lies are likely very good, but I think that the competition will keep him out of this year. Brad Pitt has been ignored the last few years in Jesse James and Babel, and I have a horrible feeling that it may happen again. The new trailer makes him look fantastic, but he will need to have universal acclaim to get in. Phillip Seymour Hoffman has a very good chance at a double nomination this year. He will be recognized here for Synecdoche, New York. Richard Jenkins should be a contender for The Visitor, but I sense the buzz fading for him. Hugh Jackman could shine in Australia, and Will Smith could shine in Seven Pounds, but I am not so sure about either’s chances right now. Eastwood is directing himself in Gran Torino, so that could get nominated here. What happened to Churchill at War? Brendan Gleeson could be nominated if the film actually comes out this year. Colin Farrell has three acclaimed performances this year, but he is not going to get in. Some day he will though, hopefully.

The Predicted Five

Sean Penn – Milk

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

Viggo Mortensen – The Road

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Synecdoche, New York

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Predicted winner: Frank Langella

Don’t count out: Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon

BEST DIRECTOR

Category Synopsis

This category is one of the best and most admired. Typically, the votes go to the films with the Best Picture nominations with one, maybe two exceptions each year. It seems pretty safe to assume Gus Van Sant will get nominated here. Ron Howard is in the same boat. I had not really been convinced of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’s potential until the most recent trailer. David Fincher is almost certainly going to get his long-awaited nomination. Darren Aronofsky has had three films, with the third one being an absolute failure. His first two directions were Oscar-level, yet ignored. The Wrestler could finally be his chance to get a nomination, which is assuming that the Academy really goes for the film. Sam Mendes is sitting on the outside looking in for this category. His Revolutionary Road could end up being an Oscar-sweeping film, but right now it is on that second tier. The Academy could try to make up for the fact that they left Joe Wright off last year, whose direction was the best part of the overrated Best Picture nominee Atonement. The Soloist does look good on paper, but the trailer did not really impress me. Edward Zwick has never been nominated for one of his own films. He is due. Will this finally be his year? John Patrick Shanley has won before, but never in this category. It could be his year if the film is strong enough. Jonathan Demme is a former winner and has a film that could take the Academy by storm. Baz Luhrmann was not nominated for his Best Picture nominee Moulin Rouge!, and the techs look highly impressive in Australia, so he could take up a spot even if his film is not a Best Picture nominee. Danny Boyle is a solid contender for his Slumdog Millionaire. Charlie Kaufman is making his directorial debut. They already love him. Could he steal a spot? John Hillcoat’s film is highly anticipated and buzzed. He looks to be the new face at the ceremony this year. Christopher Nolan has masterminded some of the greatest thrillers of this decade (The Prestige being the exception), and his The Dark Knight is a phenomenal directorial achievement. He has never been nominated in this category; this is his chance. Stephen Daldry is a solid contender for The Reader. Finally, of course, never ever overlook Clint Eastwood.

The Predicted Five

Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant - Milk

Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Hillcoat – The Road

Predicted winner: Gus Van Sant

Don’t count out: Clint Eastwood – Changeling or Gran Torino

BEST PICTURE

Category Synopsis

Finally, we are on to the biggest category. There are several films vying for just five spots. Who will get them? Who will be left out? Here is what I think. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will need to have universal appeal, and the newest trailer proves that it can be done. If it is as good as that trailer, it will roll to a nomination here. WALL-E is an interesting contender. There is the Best Animated Feature category, which may prevent an animated film from being nominated for Best Picture, but this film’s appeal is undeniable. With all the political movies going at it, something as sweet and touching as this film could shock everyone and take up a spot. Doubt is a film that I am somewhat doubting the potential of for this category. Play adaptations normally do not fare well in the Best Picture race. The Reader is still a definite possibility. Synecdoche, New York is a potential nominee, but it really depends on how much they really love the film. Eternal Sunshine was not even nominated in any major category, and that is Kaufman’s most popular screenplay. I really do not see The Wrestler making it this far. Defiance could be a great contender if it lives up to the hype. The Secret Life of Bees could rise to the top ranks if it impresses mightily. It has a lot of things going for it, especially being directed by second time director Gina Prince-Bythewood, whose first film was the indie gem Love & Basketball. Slumdog Millionaire can easily be the indie comedy in the category if the buzz stays throughout the next few months. Milk is looking to be a sure-fire pick for this race, as is Frost/Nixon. Revolutionary Road is right up there with the most buzzed films, and it very well could happen again for the brilliant Sam Mendes. Australia has all the technical and artistic votes. Will that be enough? The Road could very well be a dark horse in this race. Rachel Getting Married could be that indie comedy in the category as well. The trailer indicates that it is right up the Academy’s ally. However, I get the feeling that it will be a bit more of a The Squid and the Whale or The Savages than a Lost in Translation or Sideways. A screenplay and acting nod may be all it gets. Happy-Go-Lucky is essentially an underdog that could surprise as well, especially because the Academy adores Mike Leigh so much. Of course, never count out the giant that is The Dark Knight or the giant who is Clint Eastwood. Either of his films could easily take a spot in the race.

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

The Road

Frost/Nixon

Predicted winner: Milk

Don’t count out: WALL-E

Overall, I think my picks are about as accurate as they can come at this point in the year. So much of it is just speculation at this point. Many of these films have not even been screened yet, and some are not coming out until a limited release in late December. Some do not even have a trailer, so I am going on purely the plot and people involved. I could easily look incredibly foolish in a couple months if some films like W. do not pan out. It very well could happen. I really do not know. These are my best guesses, and there is a fair amount of thought that has gone into a lot of these predictions. Some of it is logic; some of it is recent Academy tendencies; some of it is wishful thinking. However, most of it is just my gut feeling. It is the best that I could do.