2008 Oscar Predictions: November

Posted – 11/11/08

Article by Todd Plucknett

 TODD'S OSCAR TRACKER

Last month, one of the main contenders in every category was The Road. With that project failing to get finished in time, it falls off my predictions. I still believe in that film though, and if by some chance that it does get released this year, it will likely be nominated in multiple categories. In a similar bind is Joe Wright’s The Soloist. I do not know what is going on with that picture either, but it doesn’t look promising for its chances to be contending this year. Defiance looks like it has a decent chance for this year’s awards, so I will include that film in these predictions.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Doubt

Slumdog Millionaire

The Reader

Predicted winner: Slumdog Millionaire

Don’t count out:  Revolutionary Road

Explanation

I know it is somewhat far-fetched at this point, but I feel that every one of the predicted five is a near lock. Benjamin Button looks like it can’t miss, especially in this category. Frost/Nixon looks incredible and full of brilliant dialogue. Doubt is a play adaptation, which makes it the only real question mark in the category. The Reader is this year’s The Hours, and it only depends on how good it actually is. Then there is Slumdog Millionaire, which has taken the festivals by storm and will likely continue through awards season. On the outside looking in are Revolutionary Road, which could possibly slide in there, and films like Defiance and box office giant The Dark Knight. I do not have too much faith in either project for this category, however.

BEST ORINIGAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Happy-Go-Lucky

I’ve Loved You So Long

Milk

Synecdoche, New York

WALL-E

Predicted winner: Happy-Go-Lucky

Don’t count out: The Burning Plain

Explanation

This is an interesting category. None of the top Best Picture contenders, except Milk, are original screenplays. Milk will be nominated for sure. The Academy cannot resist Mike Leigh, and his Happy-Go-Lucky is building an incredible amount of buzz currently. Synecdoche, New York is a Charlie Kaufman film and looks brilliant. I’ve Loved You So Long seems poised to make a run at some of the major categories. WALL-E will capitalize on the Academy’s trend to put an animated film in this category when it is good enough. On the outside looking in are Guillermo Arriaga’s The Burning Plain, Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Australia, W., Vicky Christina Barcelona, and the Clint Eastwood films Changeling and Gran Torino. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams – Doubt

Viola Davis – Doubt

Kate Winslet – The Reader

Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

Predicted winner: Amy Adams

Don’t count out: Elizabeth Banks – W.

Explanation

Supporting Actress is heating up. Amy Adams and Viola Davis are safe choices, though I have more confidence in Adams at this point. Kate Winslet probably will make it in this category, even though the trailer shows that she is almost undeniably leading. Taraji P. Henson has given a few fantastic performances in the past few years, and it is time she gets nominated for one of the giant contenders this year. If someone will be nominated from that film, it will be her. Marisa Tomei was left off last year, and she is said to be excellent aside Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. Just outside are Elizabeth Banks, who is seemingly everywhere right now, Vera Farmiga in Nothing But the Truth, Debra Winger’s small but crucial role in Rachel Getting Married, Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona, and the fantastic Rosemarie DeWitt. She definitely should be nominated, but I don’t think she will be, sadly.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Liev Schreiber – Defiance

James Franco – Milk

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

Josh Brolin – Milk

Predicted winner: Heath Ledger

Don’t count out: Jason Butler Harner - Changeling

Explanation

This is a great year for this category. Heath Ledger will win his posthumous Oscar. Liev Schreiber looks amazing in the trailer. James Franco, Josh Brolin, and Emile Hirsch are all fine picks for this category, but I think Hirsch’s part looks smaller than Brolin’s and less significant than Franco’s. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is the one who could steal the win from Ledger. Just outside are Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder and Ralph Fiennes for either The Reader or The Duchess. Jason Butler Harner also is in contention and completely under the radar. He gives a crazy psychopathic performance that is totally the Academy’s style, and if one actor from Changeling has a chance, it’s him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Kristen Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky

Predicted winner: Kate Winslet

Don’t count out: Michelle Williams – Wendy & Lucy

Explanation

My lineup seems fairly safe at the moment. If enough people see I’ve Loved You So Long, Kristen Scott Thomas will soar to a nomination at least. Meryl Streep is in. Kate Winslet is finally going to win her long-awaited Oscar. Anne Hathaway seems like a sure thing, and she definitely deserves it. Sally Hawkins is the breakout star of the year, and the Academy loves Leigh performers. Nicole Kidman could get in there if Australia is actually good. Angelina Jolie is technically not out of the race, but she has very little shot at breaking through this year (again…). Charlize Theron could make it for The Burning Plain if it is popular enough. Emily Blunt and Keira Knightley are both battling for similar votes, but they will cancel each other out. Michelle Williams looks amazing in Wendy & Lucy, and she is the one most likely one to break through to get in the top 5.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Sean Penn – Milk

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

Will Smith – Seven Pounds

Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Predicted winner: Frank Langella

Don’t count out: Josh Brolin – W.

Explanation

This is an incredibly strong category this year. Sean Penn hopefully will not get snubbed. Frank Langella looks like he has all but won the Oscar. Mickey Rourke is said to be the best he ever has been, and it is a comeback for the ages. Will Smith looks incredible, and it is the same director as The Pursuit of Happyness. Everyone loves him; he is in as far as I am concerned. Clint Eastwood has not won an acting Oscar. He will get his chance here.  Josh Brolin will be nominated here or in supporting, but not both. Ditto for Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Brad Pitt might have a chance here with his two acclaimed and varied performances, but he will probably get snubbed again. I am not ready to predict Richard Jenkins, but he definitely should be nominated for his mightily impressive work in The Visitor. I feel that The Visitor might be this year’s Starting Out in the Evening, though, and it will be unjustly ignored by the Oscars. Leonardo DiCaprio has a great chance if Revolutionary Road lives up to the hype. Hopefully Che gets released in time, which will give Benecio Del Toro his shot at a seemingly deserved nomination. Don’t count out Michael Sheen either if he can hold his own with Langella. And Colin Farrell…some day, hopefully.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant – Milk

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mike Leigh – Happy-Go-Lucky

Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road

Predicted winner: Gus Van Sant

Don’t count out: Clint Eastwood – Changeling or Gran Torino

Explanation

This race is intense. There are so many talented people looking to get in. Christopher Nolan looks like a lock. It could finally be Gus Van Sant’s year to win. David Fincher’s new film has the most Oscar potential of his brilliant career, and the visual brilliance of the film could carry him to a nomination even if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nod. Sam Mendes looks like a strong choice right now. Can the Academy resist Mike Leigh? I think not. Clint Eastwood is always an option, but his lacking reviews for Changeling hurt his chances some. Danny Boyle has a good shot for his likely Best Picture nominee, as does Ron Howard. Baz Luhrmann could get in if Australia is good. The ultimate dark horse: Charlie Kaufman.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Revolutionary Road

Frost/Nixon

Predicted winner: Milk

Don’t count out: WALL-E

Explanation

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Milk are very safe picks at this point. Slumdog Millionaire could end up being this year’s The Kite Runner, but I have more faith in this picture. Frost/Nixon looks incredible and will likely be nominated. Revolutionary Road’s buzz is looking stronger each day. The irresistibly sweet WALL-E could still sneak in with all the political films going at each other. Same goes for Happy-Go-Lucky. Never count out either Clint film. The Dark Knight may not be able to be stopped. The Reader’s chances have increased with the new trailer. Australia could get in for its seemingly outstanding technical achievements, and it could still be a decent film. I still do not know what to make of Defiance. Rachel Getting Married and Synecdoche, New York still have a chance as well, but they will need unanimous approval from the Academy.

November predictions are looking better than October. Some films fell out of the race, and some came in. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. I have a lot of confidence in certain pictures, but they haven’t even come close to a release date yet. At this point, though, you can only speculate and hope for some luck.