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2009 Oscar Predictions: December
Posted – 12/10/08
Article by
Todd Plucknett
We are now past the first major award precursor of
the season, the National Board of Review. Also, the Independent Spirit
Awards announced their nominations, as did the always shaky Golden
Satellites. These have brought boosts to such films as the already
steaming
Slumdog Millionaire;
we now know Josh Brolin and James Franco are serious contenders for
Milk; and it confirmed the
fact that Clint Eastwood can never be stopped or underestimated after
being named Best Actor by the NBR. Here is the way I see it shaping up
as of right now.
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
The
Predicted Five
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Predicted
winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Don’t count
out:
Revolutionary Road
Explanation
I still feel that this lineup is basically locked
up.
Revolutionary Road is
sitting on the outside, even though it is a strong Best Picture
contender. The only one in question is
Doubt, which could just end
up getting all the love from Golden Globes.
The Dark Knight is still not
out, but I just do not see a screenplay nomination for it.
BEST ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY
The
Predicted Five
Happy-Go-Lucky
I’ve Loved You So Long
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
WALL-E
Predicted
winner: Happy-Go-Lucky
Don’t count
out: The Wrestler
Explanation
I am not confident in
Synecdoche, New York’s
chances, but since it is Charlie Kaufman, I think that it still has a
great shot at getting nominated in this category. The buzz for
Vicky Christina Barcelona is
building, so Woody Allen is not out yet. With the early reviews and the
newest trailer of
The Wrestler,
I am now convinced that it could be a contender in all categories,
including this one. Also, now that
Gran Torino won best original
screenplay at the NBR, I suppose it is a contender here. I hope
Rachel Getting Married has a
chance to get in as well. It’s sad that
The Burning Plain has zero
buzz. It looked really promising.
BEST ACTRESS IN
A SUPPORTING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Predicted
winner: Penelope Cruz
Don’t count
out: Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Explanation
Penelope Cruz’s buzz is at its peak. Kate Winslet
will get her win in Best Actress, unless her votes split. The others are
fairly safe at this point, but Marisa Tomei and the two
Rachel Getting Married
supporting performers still have a good chance.
BEST ACTOR IN A
SUPPORTING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
Josh Brolin – Milk
James Franco – Milk
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Predicted
winner: Heath Ledger
Don’t count
out: Liev Schreiber - Defiance
Explanation
This is the first time that Liev Schreiber has not
been in my predicted five. His chances are still great, especially with
the NBR giving it its top 10 recognition, which is the first sign of
anything good coming from that film. I am not sold on Michael Shannon,
but the fact that people will recognize him from bit parts in big films
the past several years will help his chances. He has also been said to
be the scene-stealer, but the trailer never mentions him. Robert Downey
Jr. can make it in, but
Tropic
Thunder is just not the Academy’s thing. Emile Hirsch is still a
contender, but the fact that Ben Lyons said he was the best supporting
character in the film probably means that his chances are pretty much
dashed. Don’t count out Ralph Fiennes in any of his three films either.
BEST ACTRESS IN
A LEADING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristen Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Predicted
winner: Kate Winslet
Don’t count
out: Cate Blanchett – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Explanation
This lineup is almost set. Cate Blanchett is said
to be amazing, but I think she will fall just short to these other five
stronger contenders. Michelle Williams could surprise for her role in
Wendy & Lucy, but it’s
unlikely. Angelina Jolie would need to start winning critics awards and
the Golden Globe to get back in the race. Melissa Leo is the dark horse,
not only because she is a veteran, but because everyone loves her film.
The Spirits nominated it in several categories, and it won two NBR
awards. She could slide in there somewhere.
BEST ACTOR IN A
LEADING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Predicted
winner: Mickey Rourke
Don’t count
out: Will Smith – Seven Pounds
Explanation
Now that Clint Eastwood is officially a lock for a
nomination, this lineup is looking more secure. Leonardo DiCaprio is
more of a safe pick than Will Smith at this point, which is why I
swapped them. Smith’s film will be seen by everyone, but I am just not
confident in the film itself. Richard Jenkins still needs momentum,
which I thought he might get from the NBR, but sadly he didn’t. Brad
Pitt can get in if the voters can get their minds around the fact that
it is the most popular man on the planet. Benicio Del Toro’s chances are
finally increasing. Michael Sheen still could be a sleeper if he can
hold his own with Langella.
BEST DIRECTOR
The
Predicted Five
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mike Leigh – Happy-Go-Lucky
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Predicted
winner: Gus Van Sant
Don’t count
out: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Explanation
The only real limb I am going out on in this
category is Mike Leigh. The Academy adores him, but can he really take
Danny Boyle’s spot? My gut feeling says yes. Clint Eastwood is still in
the race for
Gran Torino,
especially with the recent confirmation that the film is actually great.
Ron Howard has a likely Best Picture nominee, which will help his
chances. Darren Aronofsky can still slide in if his film blows everyone
away. But the real question is: how much will the Academy like
Synecdoche, New York?
BEST PICTURE
The
Predicted Five
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Predicted
winner: Milk
Don’t count
out: WALL-E
Explanation
This lineup is still the most likely. I do not see
any of these legitimately falling from the top 5.
The Dark Knight is the
wildcard. The Academy doesn’t like play adaptations in this category, so
Doubt is out.
The Reader has an outside
chance.
The Wrestler needs
unanimous approval to have a shot. It’s good to know that
Australia is out of the mix.
The only film I can see breaking into the top 5 is
WALL-E. Oh, and there are
always both Clint films.
This month is looking good. The race is really
taking shape, and I can’t wait to see the Best Actor contenders duke it
out through the entire awards season. That race is entirely in the air.
We will get an even better idea of how the race could look when the
Golden Globe nominations are announced on the 9th. I will
probably do another one of these between then and the end of the month.
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