2009 Oscar Predictions: December - Post-GG/SAG Nominations

Posted – 12/20/08

Article by Todd Plucknett

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There have been some significant awards already given out, which only confirms that Slumdog Millionaire is the one to beat, and that WALL-E is a real Best Picture contender. The Critics Choice awards gave some support to some of my predictions, and brought a couple contenders back in. The Screen Actors Guild created a few locks. The Golden Globe nominations had some noteworthy omissions, some of which I predicted correctly. The Best Picture race is still up in the air. Most of the acting nominations seem to be fairly locked in.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

Predicted winner: Slumdog Millionaire

Don’t count out:  Revolutionary Road

Explanation

This race is just about over. Slumdog won. Revolutionary Road is still a possibility for the top five if it gets recognized in all the other major categories. Doubt is really the only one that could fall out of the predicted five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Happy-Go-Lucky

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Vicky Christina Barcelona

WALL-E

Predicted winner: WALL-E

Don’t count out: The Wrestler

Explanation

This is a strange category. I have no idea how it is going to shape up, except for the fact that Milk and WALL-E are going to be in there and fight for the win. Gran Torino, Synecdoche, New York, and I’ve Loved You So Long are still on the outside, with the last two losing buzz. It is looking like The Wrestler can still make it. Maybe something like Frozen River or The Visitor can slide in there. It is a fairly weak category. All the major contenders are adapted.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams – Doubt

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Christina Barcelona

Viola Davis – Doubt

Vera Farmiga – Nothing But the Truth

Kate Winslet – The Reader

Predicted winner: Penelope Cruz

Don’t count out: Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

Explanation

Penelope Cruz cannot be stopped at this point. Taraji P. Henson is right outside the top 5. Debra Winger couldn’t Ruby Dee her way into the SAGs, so her chances are all but dead. Rosemarie DeWitt has won a decent amount of precursors, so she can still make it. Marisa Tomei can still get in, especially with her Globe nod. She may not have gotten the SAG, but she didn’t for In the Bedroom either. I have a feeling that Vera Farmiga is going to be the Laura Linney shocker of the season, which is only reinforced by the fact that she was snubbed for The Departed. Those are about all the legitimate contenders.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Josh Brolin – Milk

Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder

James Franco – Milk

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

Predicted winner: Heath Ledger

Don’t count out: Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

Explanation

Ok, this category is fun. Dev Patel is in the wrong category for the SAG, much like Leo was for The Departed. I am not convinced he is in yet, though that can change in the near future. Brolin’s recent awards are making him a near lock for a nomination, but the Globe snub hurts. Same goes for Franco. With the Golden Globe love, Robert Downey Jr. looks like his chances are at their peak. Michael Shannon has not been mentioned at all for any award, and the lack of SAG nod was the nail in the coffin for him. Liev Schreiber’s chances are fading, with very little positive word coming from that film. Ralph Fiennes got a Globe nod, so his chances are still alive. Tom Cruise has zero chance at the Oscars, though. Eddie Marsan is a sleeper. None of that matters, though. Heath Ledger won this.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky

Melissa Leo – Frozen River

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Predicted winner: Kate Winslet

Don’t count out: Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Explanation

Kate Winslet has basically won this. Sally Hawkins is not too secure in her spot, especially with her SAG snub. Kristen Scott Thomas needs to take the Globe to get back in. Melissa Leo is riding her superb performance and general love for her film to a possible nomination. The chances for Michelle Williams are shot; her film is just too small. Kate Beckinsale got a nice boost from the Critics Choice. Angelina Jolie is set up exactly like she was last year, but this year she is riding on the Clint bandwagon. You never know.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

Richard Jenkins – The Visitor

Sean Penn – Milk

Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Predicted winner: Mickey Rourke

Don’t count out: Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road

Explanation

Finally I can predict Pitt. Everything points in his favor, but the Academy does have that sort of bias toward him and Jolie, which kept him out for Babel. He has much more momentum this year, though. DiCaprio was hurt by the SAG snub and overall mediocre word about that film. They have only nominated him three times? Maybe he will get snubbed again. Richard Jenkins may have already secured a spot. Benicio Del Toro and Clint Eastwood are next in line. Will Smith’s chances are dead. The most interesting thing about this category is who is going to win. Rourke, Penn, and Langella have shared just about every award so far. Who is going to take home the top prize: the unbelievable comeback, the redefining performance by a former winner, or the often overlooked veteran? I have to go with the comeback.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon

Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant – Milk

Predicted winner: Danny Boyle

Don’t count out: Andrew Stanton – WALL-E

Explanation

This is a tossup category. Revolutionary Road seems to have underwhelmed many people. I think Mendes needs to have his film score several nominations to get back to the ceremony. Darren Aronofsky needs universal appeal, which it appears he is getting. Never count out Clint. Stephen Daldry is still an option. I still like Mike Leigh’s chances, though his film is losing steam. Andrew Stanton is sitting right there with the wild card WALL-E waiting to get nominated. This category seems to belong to Danny Boyle, though.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Five

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Predicted winner: Slumdog Millionaire

Don’t count out: Revolutionary Road

Explanation

I am puzzled by this category. I feel Milk is a frontrunner, but its Globe snubs can’t be ignored, though I somehow saw that coming. Only Crash and The Sting have won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Picture at the Globes, so can Milk make it three? Benjamin Button is a sleeping giant. Slumdog seems to be making its case to be the one to beat. WALL-E’s chances are suddenly real, though I saw this coming a long time ago. Revolutionary Road could be treated like this year’s Little Children. The Dark Knight, The Reader, and The Wrestler are still possibilities. I really have no clue what will win. Slumdog is sweeping almost everything. It could finally be the light-hearted film to take the top prize. We will have to see how the rest of the Guilds go. Go WALL-E!