2010 Oscar Predictions: June

Posted – 6/15/09

Article by Todd Plucknett

TODD’S OSCAR TRACKER

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

An Education

The Human Factor

The Informant

The Lovely Bones

Shutter Island

Predicted winner: The Lovely Bones

Explanation

This category is always an interesting one. It is always stocked full of Best Picture nominees and such. So, my predictions involve most of the favorites. An Education got amazing reception at Sundance, and it is probably this year’s character drama that will be a hit with the Oscars. The Human Factor (or Invictus or whatever it is called) will be a smash hit with audiences and the AMPAS. The Informant looks to be a great spy thriller by Steven Soderbergh, who also has The Girlfriend Experience, which will increase enthusiasm for his more widely available movie. The Lovely Bones is this year’s Benjamin Button and may well sweep everything. Shutter Island is a Scorsese film that looks incredible. It will certainly be a hit at least in the screenplay category.

Others considered include Rob Marshall’s musical Nine, the Cormac McCarthy novel adaptation The Road, Guy Ritchie’s Sherlock Holmes, Spike Jonze’s Where the Wild Things Are, Michael Mann’s Public Enemies, and the Leo Tolstoy biopic The Last Station. Musicals are not usually successful in the screenplay categories, so Nine will have to be incredible to get in here. The Road was pushed back a year. Sherlock Homes could just be a blockbuster. Where the Wild Things Are may be a bit too weird for the Academy. Public Enemies really needs to be a hit. The Last Station is right outside the top 5.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Funny People

Ondine

Sympathy for Delicious

Up

Whatever Works

Predicted winner: Whatever Works

Explanation

Funny People looks to be the one that will finally get Judd Apatow his Oscar screenplay nomination. It deals with mortality, yet it is still going to have huge laughs with the tears. Comparisons to James L. Books have been made, and if it is received like that, then we will be looking at more than just a screenplay mention. Neil Jordan films always get attention, even if they are terrible like The Brave One and Breakfast on Pluto. This one has a sort of fantasy feel to it, which could get mentioned here if it is deep enough. Sympathy for Delicious could be wishful thinking. Mark Ruffalo is directing, and the Academy loves their actors directing. It sounds great, but it may not even be released this year. Up is Pixar…that’s a lock. Woody Allen’s Whatever Works looks like a return to Annie Hall’s style. He will get nominated at least.

Others considered include Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces, the Coen’s A Serious Man, the highly buzzed Love Ranch, Wes Anderson’s The Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Tarantino’s long-awaited Inglorious Basterds. Broken Embraces has a great chance. A Serious Man may not be serious enough. Love Ranch is an interesting option. The Fantastic Mr. Fox is written by a former nominee, which puts it in the running. We will just have to wait and see about Inglorious Basterds. He hasn’t been back to the ceremony since Pulp Fiction, so maybe they don’t want him back…

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams – Julia & Julia

Judi Dench – Nine

Sophia Loren – Nine

Mo’Nique – Precious

Evan Rachel Wood – Whatever Works

Predicted winner: Sophia Loren

Explanation

These nominees were not that hard to come up with. Amy Adams stars alongside Meryl Streep again. Everyone adores her. Even if she is lead, she will go supporting. Dame Judi Dench is in a movie. She is in. The Academy loves their veteran comebacks. Enter: the legend Sophia Loren. Precious (or Push) has gotten buzzed everywhere, and everyone is mentioning Mo’Nique as Oscar-level. She could very well make it. Maybe it will be this year’s Half Nelson. Woody Allen girls always get in. Evan Rachel Wood has danced around the top 5 before. She will likely get it this year.

Others considered include Patricia Clarkson for Whatever Works, Rachel Weisz for The Lovely Bones, Maggie Gyllenhaal in the great-sounding Crazy Heart, Charlize Theron in The Road, Leslie Mann in Funny People, and any of the Nine or Shutter Island girls. Clarkson stands a chance for the same reasons as Wood. Weisz is playing the mother role in a favorite film. Gyllenhaal is just waiting for her invite. Theron also has The Burning Plain, and if either is loved, she can make it. Mann could steal the show from her costars again, and if the film is loved, she could get the nod this time. I have a gut feeling that Fergie may make it for Nine too. We will see how that turns out.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Matt Damon – The Human Factor

James McAvoy – The Last Station

Sam Rockwell – Betty Anne Waters

Sam Shepard – Brothers

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Predicted winner: James McAvoy

Explanation

Matt Damon has three big movies this year. This seems his most likely nomination chance. James McAvoy has been snubbed a couple times. This is his big opportunity. Hopefully he capitalizes on it. Sam Rockwell has given several amazing performances. In a stellar cast alongside Oscar-favorite Hilary Swank, he could finally get his invitation. Brothers is a remake, but it could be well received. The AMPAS likes Jim Sheridan films, and Shepard hasn’t gotten nominated since The Right Stuff. He could make his comeback here. Stanley Tucci has the crucial role in the favorite. I think he is in.

Others considered include Brad Pitt in Inglorious Basterds, any of the Shutter Island guys, Alfred Molina in An Education, Kodi-Smit McPhee in The Road, Heath Ledger in The Imaganariun of Dr. Parnassus, and Joe Pesci in Love Ranch. Pitt needs to go supporting, and it needs to be widely loved. It is still a risky choice, though. The Shutter Island cast looks amazing. Jackie Earle Haley and Mark Ruffalo have real chances. Alfred Molina has been close before. He has a baity role. He could make it. I had Kodi-Smit McPhee on the list last year, but it was pushed back. It needs to be great. Ledger has everything going for him again. Pesci is a veteran former winner who supposedly retired. He may be lead, too.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice

Carrie Mulligan – An Education

Meryl Streep – Julia & Julia

Hilary Swank – Amelia

Audrey Tautou – Coco avant Chanel

Predicted winner: Audrey Tautou

Explanation

Halle Berry’s comeback may be right here. She plays a woman with multiple personality disorder. Sounds like a comeback. Carey Mulligan is poised to be this year’s breakout star. Meryl Streep is in. She may finally get that long-elusive third trophy. Hilary Swank in a biopic…she is in. She also has Betty Anne Waters. Audrey Tautou is a loved actress. She is in a biopic that totally suits her. I like her chances.

Others considered include Cameron Diaz for My Sister’s Keeper, Michelle Pfeiffer for Cheri, Penelope Cruz for Broken Embraces, Saoirse Ronan is The Lovely Bones, Robin Wright Penn in The Private Lives of Pippa Lee, Helen Mirren in The Last Station or Love Ranch, and Emily Watson in Within the Whirlwind. Diaz has been close several times. If this movie is anything good, then she has a shot. Michelle Pfeiffer would be a typical veteran mention. Almodovar brings out the very best in Ms. Cruz. Ronan has a crucial role in the favorite. Robin Wright Penn has never been nominated before, and this may be her chance. Emily Watson looks amazing in her film. She could get her third nomination this year as well.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Paul Bettany – Creation

Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island

Colin Farrell – Ondine

Morgan Freeman – The Human Factor

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Predicted winner: Morgan Freeman

Explanation

Paul Bettany looks sensational in Creation. He has been close several times, but that nomination has somehow always eluded him. I love his chances this year. Leonardo DiCaprio looks incredible in Shutter Island. He could finally win it this year. Colin Farrell will be nominated at some point. He should have 2 or 3 by now. This is his best shot yet. Morgan Freeman will probably win for playing the flawlessly-casted part of Nelson Mandela. Christopher Plummer has a real chance too as Leo Tolstoy.

Others considered include Jim Carrey in I Love You Phillip Morris, Johnny Depp in Public Enemies, Jeremy Renner in the highly-anticipated The Hurt Locker, Peter Sarsgaard in An Education, David Carradine in Su Qi-Er, Adam Sandler in Funny People, Javier Bardem in Alejandro Gonzalen Inaritu’s Biutiful, Viggo Mortensen in The Road, and Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine. Carrey is playing a homosexual man in a somewhat serious role. Hopefully the Academy can see past the fact that he is Jim Carrey. It may not be released this year, though. Depp is always nominated. This will need to be a smash, though. Renner was incredible in the Hurt Locker, but it may not be the Academy’s cup of tea. Sarsgaard is a fantastic character actor. This may be his long-awaited nomination that he should have had for Shattered Glass. Carradine died a tragic death not too long ago. He has 12 movies coming out this year, and this one translates to “True Legend”. They may want to honor his career with the nomination that he never got. It sounds great too. Sandler has the talent to pull off a nomination in Funny People. I hope he gets it. Bardem is loved by everyone, and he is playing in a beloved director’s film. He is right outside the top 5. Mortensen’s film needs to be a hit. Finally, Day-Lewis needs to be the center of attention in the almost exclusively female cast.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Spike Jonze – Where the Wild Things Are

Clint Eastwood – The Human Factor

Peter Jackson – The Lovely Bones

Rob Marshall – Nine

Martin Scorsese – Shutter Island

Predicted winner: Peter Jackson

Explanation

The Academy likes to nominate the directors of movies that are a bit too strange for them, even if it is one of the best of the year (such as Mulholland Dr., The Truman Show, Being John Malkovich, etc.). This is where Where the Wild Things Are has its best chance. Clint Eastwood is directing a movie. He is right at the top of the list. Peter Jackson is a near lock for his amazing-looking The Lovely Bones. Rob Marshall has a great chance for his musical Nine. Martin Scorsese is reinventing himself with Shutter Island. It is sure to please the AMPAS, who has nominated his last three efforts for Picture and Director.

Others considered include James Cameron for Avatar, Lone Sherfig for An Education, Michael Hoffman for the Last Station, Michael Mann for Public Enemies, Terry Gilliam for The Imaganarium of Dr. Parnassus, Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu for Biutiful, Woody Allen for Whatever Works, Judd Apatow for Funny People, Ang Lee for Taking Woodstock, John Hillcoat for The Road, and Neil Jordan for Ondine. Cameron is directing his first film since Titanic. The anticipation is insane on this one. If it delivers, he could go all the way. Sherfig and Hoffman are directing potential Best Picture nominees. Mann needs another invite; has it really been 10 years? Gilliam has never been nominated in this category. Can he ride Ledger’s momentum? Inaritu’s project sounds great. Woody Allen is always considered. Apatow needs his film to be taken seriously to be considered a contender. Taking Woodstock looks fun, and Lee’s direction is always superb. The Road needs to be great for Hillcoat to get in. Jordan is directing a potentially fantastic film. He is also a former winner. That always helps.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Five

An Education

The Human Factor

The Last Station

The Lovely Bones

Nine

Predicted winner: The Lovely Bones

Explanation

An Education is poised to get nominated here, but probably not win. The Human Factor is an incredibly safe bet. The Last Station has the potential to be fantastic, but it may just be a spotlight for its actors. The Lovely Bones is the favorite. Nine could be the return to good musicals for the Academy to nominate in this category.

Others considered include Ondine, Shutter Island, Up, Funny People, Biutiful, Whatever Works, Public Enemies, The Road, and Avatar. Ondine is just a hunch in all categories mentioned. Shutter Island may be too dark for the Academy. Up could be Pixar’s first Best Picture nominee, but it is not likely still. Funny People could make it if it is indeed a James L. Brooks style and quality film. Biutiful could be excellent. Whatever Works has endless potential if it is as good as the trailer. Public Enemies needs to be incredible and widely accepted to even be considered. The Road was pushed back. If it is anything like No Country for Old Men, then the comparisons will kill it. Finally, Avatar has the potential to be astonishing. Cameron is finally following up his 11-time Oscar-winning Titanic, and it is a passion piece. I hope it is great, but I am just not feeling it.

So, those are my ridiculously early predictions. There are dozens of movies with potential that I have left out, but these are the ones that I found that I think have the best chances. I know that there is going to be some hit foreign film that makes a run at Best Picture and some small indie comedy, possibly something like (500) Days of Summer, that is going to be loved and nominated in several categories that hasn’t even surfaced yet. These are just my early gut feelings.