2010 Oscar Predictions: September

Posted – 9/7/09

Article by – Todd Plucknett

TODD’S OSCAR TRACKER

Sadly, it has been announced that one of the most anticipated films of the year, Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island is getting pushed to February 2010, the month where movies go to die. Therefore, it will technically be eligible for next year’s Oscars, but will most likely receive nothing due to its release date. The last film to really do damage in that month was The Silence of the Lambs. Also, Crazy Heart was gathering some buzz, but that is pushed back to 2010 now also. Well, that narrows down my options for this year’s awards. It seems to be a fairly weak year. Oh, and The Tree of Life is now rumored to be a 2009 release. All these postponements and mass uncertainty around this project is making me nervous, but it is Malick. He will deliver.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

An Education

Invictus

The Informant!

The Lovely Bones

Precious

Predicted winner

Precious

Explanation

This is an interesting category. An Education and Precious seem to be near-locks. The Lovely Bones, even if it does not fare well in the major categories, will be nominated for screenplay. Invictus is a guaranteed nomination, but oddly enough, an Eastwood film has never won a screenplay Oscar. The Informant! is just a gut feeling. It looks awesome too.

Nine is right outside the top 5. Musicals and screenplay nominations do not always go together. The Road is losing steam. Where the Wild Things Are and Sherlock Holmes are looking less likely. The chances for Public Enemies died with the ratings. The Last Station is a wild card. Up in the Air has a great opportunity too, given the fact that it includes a favorite writer-director in Jason Reitman and a favorite leading man in George Clooney. Brothers can still get in if it distinguishes itself enough from the popular Danish film from which it is based, much like how The Departed did. When a few more of these films get released, this category will become more solid. It is probably the easiest to predict each year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Bright Star

Inglourious Basterds

Ondine

The Tree of Life

Up

Predicted winner

Ondine

Explanation

Up is a lock. Inglourious Basterds has some insane buzz, and Original Screenplay seems to be the safest bet for Tarantino to be recognized again finally. Bright Star is emerging as a favorite, which would be a nice return to greatness for past Oscar-winner Jane Campion. Ondine looks gorgeous, and Neil Jordan has not been back since The Crying Game. And I have to think that The Tree of Life will get a mention here.

The Hurt Locker’s buzz is incredible, and it could easily take one of these spots. Broken Embraces is looking strong. Sympathy for Delicious is still just wishful thinking. Biutiful has a great chance, given that it is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s new film, and every one of his films gets nominated somewhere. Funny People and Whatever Works are both dead in the water. A Serious Man may not be serious enough to make a run at a nomination. The Fantastic Mr. Fox and Ponyo are still possibilities, given that they are both written and directed by past nominees. I love the potential for Tim Blake Nelson’s Leaves of Grass. Maybe even (500) Days of Summer or something like District 9 can make the final cut. Avatar is still right outside. This is always a cool category for unconventional films to get nominations. We will see how this all plays out.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Judi Dench – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Sophia Loren – Nine

Mo’Nique – Precious

Rachel Weisz – The Lovely Bones

Predicted winner

Sophia Loren

Explanation

Nothing has happened to make me think that Sophia Loren will not get the comeback win for Nine. Dame Judi Dench is in of course. Mo’Nique’s buzz cannot be stopped at this point. Rachel Weisz has the mother role in a buzzed film. Vera Farmiga is an actress who has been in a lot of great films, and she is always a highlight. This could finally be her film to shine and grab that nomination.

Any of the other Nine ladies are still logical choices. Charlize Theron can still make it for The Road if the film has any quality. She has the tremendous The Burning Plain getting released this year as well. Anna Kendrick is also getting some positive mentions for Up in the Air. Emma Thompson has been overlooked recently, so she could get swept in with the An Education buzz. I suppose recent winner Marion Cotillard is still possible for Public Enemies, just because this category is not exactly popping with competition. Look for another lackluster supporting actress category this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Matt Damon – Invictus

James McAvoy – The Last Station

Paul Schneider – Bright Star

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Basterds

Predicted winner

Stanley Tucci

Explanation

Matt Damon needs to get another nomination at some point. Clint may well be his winning hand. Every single review praises the Cannes-winning Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds. Even though QT doesn’t always get nominated, his supporting men do. He is in. Stanley Tucci has to be the favorite for his role. He was also superb in Julie & Julia. James McAvoy has been flirting with nominations for a while, and this is probably his greatest opportunity. Paul Schneider is a veteran actor who is always great. I love Bright Star’s chances, and if he is a scene-stealer, he will slide right into competition.

Tobey Maguire is garnering buzz for Brothers. I still like Sam Shepard’s role too. Christian McCay plays the iconic title character in Me and Orson Welles. I like his chances. Alfred Molina in An Education has a high possibility. If they ignore Moon, then Sam Rockwell can still make it in for the great-sounding Betty Anne Waters. Child actor Kodi-Smit McPhee can get in for The Road. Richard Kind has a great role in A Serious Man. Joe Pesci could shine in Love Ranch, but he could be lead. Never count out Mr. Ledger. Richard Dreyfuss in Leaves of Grass could surprise. And why not someone like Brad Pitt for Inglorious Basterds or The Tree of Life? This category has almost no sure-fire nominees yet. I love it.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Abbie Cornish – Bright Star

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Hilary Swank – Amelia

Predicted winner

Meryl Streep

Explanation

Meryl Streep is a lock for a nomination. Maybe she will win supporting. Either way, she is most likely winning her long-deserved third Oscar this year. Abbie Cornish is said to be outstanding in Bright Star. Carey Mulligan is the newcomer of the year. Michelle Monaghan looks sensational in Trucker. She could be this year’s Melissa Leo. Audrey Tautou wasn’t nominated for Amelie, and she is in a biopic. I like her chances. Hilary Swank has two Oscar-begging projects. I am going with Amelia.

Audrey Tautou wasn’t nominated for Amelie, and she is in a biopic. I like her chances as well. Charlotte Gainsbourg won the Cannes Best Actress for Von Trier’s Antichrist. She could sneak in. Horror films have gotten mentioned in this category in the past. Penelope Cruz is still a possibility. Michelle Pfeiffer can play her overdue card. Saoirse Ronan is still semi-possible. Gabourey Sidibe is said to be superb in Precious. Helen Mirren, Emily Watson, and Robin Wright Penn are still awaiting reviews. Maybe someone like Ramola Garai could get in for Glorious 39. Don’t count out Julie Delpy for The Countess either. I like everything she does, and this could finally be her acting nomination that she deserved for Before Sunset. This category is still fairly wide open.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Paul Bettany – Creation

George Clooney – Up in the Air

Colin Farrell – Ondine

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Predicted winner

Morgan Freeman

Explanation

Morgan Freeman has this won. I still love Paul Bettany’s chances for a first nomination. Colin Farrell needs to get in at some point. Christopher Plummer is the only one I can see taking this from Freeman. And then there’s George Clooney. Everyone loves him. He is the next Cary Grant. I like his chances.

Sam Rockwell in Moon is the best performance I have seen this year. I hope it gets its due. Matt Damon is still possible for The Informant!. I just don’t see him coming away from this year without a nomination. Edward Norton could shine in his lead role in Leaves of Grass. Never exclude Johnny Depp from contention…or Sean Penn for that matter. Jeremy Renner is on the unstoppable vehicle that is The Hurt Locker. Javier Bardem is still possible. Daniel Day-Lewis needs to outshine his almost exclusively female cast. Hugh Dancy is said to be excellent in Adam. Peter Sarsgaard may well be the highlight of An Education. Viggo Mortensen needs his film to be amazing. Ben Wishaw for Bright Star is a strong underdog possibility. I am including the late David Carradine just because it would be awesome if he swaps one of the spots, even though it is next to impossible. And then there is Adam Sandler. Ugh…sorry man. Your film just wasn’t what we all thought it was going to be. It doesn’t really matter who is nominated alongside Freeman, though. This category was done the moment he and Clint signed their names to the project.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

James Cameron – Avatar

Jane Campion – Bright Star

Clint Eastwood – Invictus

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

Rob Marshall – Nine

Predicted winner

Terrence Malick

Explanation

This category has so many big names vying for the top spot. Here, it basically comes down to Terrence Malick. He is a living legend, and if this film lives up to half its buzz, he will get honored by the Academy this year. Clint Eastwood is in obviously. James Cameron’s Avatar project is so quiet and so immensely anticipated, I can only think that it will be astonishing. I say that he is very close to a lock for one of the five spots. Rob Marshall did not win for his Best Picture winner Chicago. The Academy may want to make up for that. Finally, I have a hunch that the last spot will go to Jane Campion.

Peter Jackson’s film just does not seem like one that will garner top awards. I could be completely wrong about that, however. I still like Spike Jonze’s chances. Lee Daniels is a strong possibility if the AMPAS falls in love with Precious as much as the festivals did. Kathryn Bigelow and Lone Sherfig are still very in the race. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu needs his film to be outstanding, as well as Neil Jordan. Jason Reitman was just validated for Juno, so now all of his projects are nomination possibilities. I can really see any of these directors making it to the ceremony. And with the Best Picture new rule, their films have twice the chance to get in. That only makes this category more honorable and more uncertain.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Five Ten

An Education

Avatar

Bright Star

Invictus

The Lovely Bones

Nine

Precious

The Tree of Life

Up

Up in the Air

Predicted winner

Invictus

Explanation

This was not that hard to come up with the new rule. Almost every film with any sort of chance makes it in. An Education seems to be the token British film in the Best Picture category. Avatar will need to massively disappoint to not make it. Bright Star seems to be a lock. Invictus has been in since it was announced. The Lovely Bones will probably make it to the top ten, even if it really isn’t the Academy’s cup of tea. The Academy loves their musicals, and Nine will be the beneficiary of that. Precious is the little film that could. The Tree of Life is in with its legendary director. The Academy wants an animated film nominated, and with WALL-E somehow coming up short, Up will coast to the Best Picture top ten. Up in the Air is looking strong. Of all of these, Invictus has to have the best shot for now.

The Last Station is possible if it is as great as its potential. Biutiful, The Hurt Locker, and Ondine are still strong possibilities. It would be awesome to see something like (500) Days of Summer make it in, because it really is the Annie Hall for the new millennium. Brothers needs to be incredible. A Serious Man is just outside my predicted ten. With the new rule, documentaries are now legitimate options. Enter Michael Moore’s Capitalism: A Love Story. And you never know…Inglorious Basterds? We will see.