2010 Oscar Predictions: December

 Posted - 12/6/09

Article by – Todd Plucknett

TODD’S OSCAR TRACKER 

With the recent announcements of the Golden Satellite awards, National Board of Review awards, Independent Spirit Awards, and the hosts of the Oscar ceremony (Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin), the awards season has finally begun. The Golden Satellite awards cannot be taken too seriously, given the fact that past nominees have included Chris Tucker for Rush Hour 2 and Cameron Diaz for Charlie’s Angels. However, they do have an interesting group of nominees every year. They are not bound by what is expected of them (seen in 2007 by nominating The Lookout everywhere and not being ashamed to honor the mainstream comedies). This year, the major boosts they caused were for The Damned United and The Stoning of Soraya M., two films of previously uncertain fate. The Spirit awards provided few surprises, other than the fact that Precious will be the indie darling of the year and get nominated everywhere. The National Board of Review winners are a good indicator of nominees. This basically locked in Up in the Air in all major categories, made Woody Harrelson suddenly the guy to beat in supporting, and confirmed that Invictus really is going to be another Eastwood powerhouse. Given all this new information, here are my newest predictions.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

An Education

Invictus

The Lovely Bones

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Up in the Air

Predicted winner: Up in the Air

Explanation

This category, as it does every year, is starting to solidify itself very early. It is obvious that Invictus and The Lovely Bones will get nominated if they have half of the quality promised by the trailers. Up in the Air and Precious are basically locks at this point. An Education is close to it. The only spoilers I can see are Julie & Julia, Nine, The Informant!, District 9, and A Single Man. They all have certain things going for them, but they also have things holding them back. In the case of Julie & Julia, it is the romantic comedy clichés. In the case of Nine, it is the fact that it is a musical. In the case of A Single Man (perhaps this year’s Little Children), it is the controversial material. District 9 has the category fraud aspect (adapted or original?). The Informant! may be just too strange for that type of film. That top 5 is totally solid at this early stage.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

(500) Days of Summer

Bright Star

Inglourious Basterds

A Serious Man

Up

Predicted winner: A Serious Man

Explanation

A Serious Man and Up are locks. (500) Days of Summer is a typical film for this category. Inglourious Basterds and Bright Star are written by past winners that have not been invited back in 15+ years. This lineup is looking as solid as adapted. Films with potential to get in are District 9, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and The White Ribbon. The Hurt Locker is most likely to make the final cut, but it really is not a writing achievement as it is technical and acting achievements. I am sticking with my predicted top 5.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Penelope Cruz – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Julianne Moore – A Single Man

Predicted winner: Julianne Moore

Explanation

This category is narrowing down as well. Penelope Cruz is getting the best in show reviews. Vera Farmiga is a veteran who will get mentioned at some point. Her costar Anna Kendrick is getting even better reviews, and seems to be the real deal. It’s good to see that all that potential she showed in Rocket Science was not a fluke. Mo’Nique seems unstoppable at this point. However, I am predicting the always reliable (except in the case of Hannibal) Julianne Moore. She will win someday, and judging by the trailer, she will have several scenes that could solidify her Oscar this year. Other potential nominees include the rest of the Nine cast (especially Oscar darling Dame Judi Dench), Emma Thompson for An Education, Samantha Morton in The Messenger (who has gotten a nice boost with a nomination at the Spirit awards), and the wildcard Melanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds. I could see any of them making it this year. My top 5 are the ones whose chances look most promising at the current time. We will see in the coming weeks how The Lovely Bones and Nine get received, which will impact this category certainly.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Matt Damon – Invictus

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Basterds

Predicted winner: Christoph Waltz

Explanation

I love this category. It is already shaping up to be the most interesting of the year. Stanley Tucci’s buzz is enormous, and given the character, he will sail to a nomination. Christoph Waltz is a lock. After those, it is up in the air. Woody Harrelson has gotten significant boosts from his Satellite and Spirit nominations and National Board of Review win. Maybe he will win that Oscar that was stolen from him in 1996. Matt Damon has been getting raves, and the trailer implies plenty of great scenes for this understated, brilliant actor who needs another nomination. Christian McKay is a real dark horse in the category. If enough people see it, I am certain that his seemingly pitch-perfect performance as Orson Welles will be an award favorite. The other strong contenders include Alfred Molina in An Education, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, and Fred Melamed from A Serious Man. It is totally the type of strange Coen brothers character that would get mentioned if the film is as popular as it should be with the Academy. As always, this will be an interesting race from now until February.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Shoreh Aghdashloo – The Stoning of Soraya M.

Abbie Cornish – Bright Star

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Gaborey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Predicted winner: Meryl Streep

Explanation

This category is unusually strong this year. The frontrunner is Oscar-queen Meryl Streep. Carey Mulligan is garnering Audrey Hepburn comparisons for her performance. Abbie Cornish has been raved in nearly every review. Gaborey Sidibe is said to be hauntingly good. Now, with the several mentions for The Stoning of Soraya M. at the Satellites, I have to include former nominee Shoreh Aghdashloo. Almost none of these performances are safe (other than Meryl). On the outside looking in are Marion Cotillard for Nine, Penelope Cruz for Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces, Helen Mirren for The Last Station, Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria (nominated for this and for Sunshine Cleaning at the Satellites), Audrey Tautou for Coco Before Chanel, Michelle Monaghan for Trucker, and recent nominee Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones. Normally at this point, this category is fairly locked up. This year, there are too many films with unknown status, too many contenders, and too many big names in big roles to come up with a definitive top 5. This is my best guess, taking into account the few subtle indications we have had so far.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Paul Bettany – Creation

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

George Clooney – Up in the Air

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Predicted winner: Morgan Freeman

Explanation

This category is next to impossible. I am only willing to say that Morgan Freeman and George Clooney are locks. Jeff Bridges seems to be a good bet for his role that seems similar to The Wrestler. Colin Firth is getting raves for his role, calling it the best of his career. I am sticking with my wildcard Paul Bettany. He needs to get nominated sometime. After those 5, there are so many strong contenders. There is Sam Rockwell for Moon, a performance that seems wildly forgotten at this point but could sneak up with a few key critic mentions. Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man was the standout of the cast. Robert De Niro hasn’t been back since Cape Fear in ’91. He looks amazing in Everybody’s Fine, which could be his ticket, like About Schmidt was for Jack. Michael Sheen is getting raves for The Damned United. Ben Foster in The Messenger and James McAvoy in The Last Station are right behind. Matt Damon also has The Informant!, his best performance in years. Johnny Depp and Daniel Day-Lewis are never out of it. Nicolas Cage is a wildcard for Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans. Then there is Jeremy Renner. It seems that everyone wants him to get nominated. With his Spirit nomination last year for his staggering performance in The Hurt Locker and universal acclaim this year, I think he has an excellent chance. This category is so packed. I love it.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Clint Eastwood – Invictus

Rob Marshall – Nine

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Predicted winner: Rob Marshall

Explanation

Best Director was always easy to predict. It was always the Best Picture nominees with one exception. Now I have 10 to pick from. Kathryn Bigelow seems unstoppable. Lee Daniels will get in with the John Singleton vote and universal appeal. Clint is Clint. Rob Marshall seems like a sure bet if the movie lives up to half the hype. He was also not awarded for his Best Picture Chicago, which is still fresh in the minds of the voters. Jason Reitman is the new indie voice in cinema, and his chances are almost secured. Other contenders include Quentin Tarantino, Jane Campion, Peter Jackson, the Coens, Lone Sherfig for An Education, and the brilliant, yet unconventional choices of Spike Jonze for Where the Wild Things Are and Neill Blomkamp for District 9. Oh yeah, and James Cameron. His film’s expectations are monumental. It needs to be spectacular. This is an interesting bunch of directors. I will be fine with almost any combination of them.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Five

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Invictus

Nine

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

A Serious Man

A Single Man

Up

Up in the Air

Predicted winner: Up in the Air

Explanation

Now to the big one. My predicted winner is Up in the Air. It seems totally the Academy’s speed, and they seem to be in love with Reitman and Clooney. It is a safe choice, but it is not a likely winner, sad to say. It is just the one that seems to be the most relevant at the moment. The Hurt Locker, fresh off its Gotham win, seems to be locked in. An Education should be the British film mentioned on the list. Invictus is nearly a lock. Precious has backing from Oprah and Tyler Perry. It’s in. A Serious Man and Up are basically locks. I can’t think of a scenario where Nine doesn’t make it in. A Single Man is a gut feeling. Now, we come to the final spot. The Academy moves to 10 nominees to give some love to the mainstream films that deserve best of the year honors. None of the contenders are box office films. Inglourious Basterds is the only contender that wide audiences saw (and it is the best film of the year). Other contenders for that spot are District 9 and Avatar. This is why I can sense a possible nomination for Julie & Julia or even (500) Days of Summer. The Lovely Bones is still uncertain. The Last Station needs some reviews. The Messenger is a dark horse. Who knows about Brothers? Bright Star and The White Ribbon are possibilities. Where the Wild Things Are? Everybody’s Fine? It is so wide open. We have no idea what to expect from the 6-10 films. It could be anything. How close really were WALL-E and The Dark Knight last year? We will see in the coming weeks with the announcement of the Independent Spirit awards and Golden Globes what films are gaining the most significant Oscar buzz. It is going to be fun to track.