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2010 Oscar Predictions: Final
Article by
Todd Plucknett
Posted - 1/25/10
Following the two major awards shows before the
nominations are announced, I have completed my final predictions. From
the Critics Choice awards, we learned that
The Hurt Locker is still the
one to beat in the Best Picture race. We also learned that Sandra
Bullock’s average performance in
The Blind Side actually stands a chance at winning the Oscar, who
took home a share of the Best Actress award and won the Golden Globe
Best Actress in a Drama award as well. Also,
The Hangover won Best Comedy
at both awards, so that terrible film is actually somehow gaining Oscar
buzz. Of all the great R-rated comedies and sports films with great
performances, why are they awarding these two average films? Is it
really that bad of a year? Also, the Writers Guild of America
nominations came with several ineligible screenplays, so those cannot
really be taken that seriously. Here is what I think the major
categories will look like come February 2nd.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Up in the Air
District 9
Predicted winner: Up in the Air
Explanation
Up in the
Air is going to win this without a doubt.
An Education and
Precious are obvious
nominees. The other two are more difficult.
Invictus has gotten all the
key mentions, but it has yet to win almost anything.
District 9 is just a hunch.
The only other real possibilities are
Fantastic Mr. Fox,
A Single Man, and
Julie & Julia. Either way,
whatever is nominated with
Up in
the Air is not going to stand a chance.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of
Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Predicted winner: Inglourious Basterds
Explanation
This category is basically locked up. The only
question mark is
(500) Days of
Summer. But what would take its place?
Avatar could get in, I
suppose.
The Hangover could
get a wildly undeserved nomination. I actually really dig these
potential nominees. There is not a weak one in the bunch.
The Hurt Locker just is not a
screenwriting achievement, or else I would predict that to win. To me,
at this point, it is the Tarantino’s to lose.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by
Sapphire
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
Predicted winner: Mo’Nique
Explanation
This will be interesting. Farmiga, Kendrick, and
Mo’Nique are in. Mo’Nique is going to win. But the other two spots are
completely uncertain. The precursors went to Penelope Cruz, but maybe
the Academy has had enough of her lately. Julianne Moore would be a
great addition. And the only truly great performance in
Nine was by recent winner
Marion Cotillard. Those are my predicted ones. Other possibilities:
Cruz, Diane Kruger for
Inglourious Basterds (SAG nomination), Samantha Morton for
The Messenger, and the
sleeper Melanie Laurent in
Inglourious Basterds. Cotillard and Laurent have been billed as
lead, but the Academy doesn’t always go by that.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Basterds
Predicted winner: Christoph Waltz
Explanation
Waltz has already won. The other ones I can’t
really see changing. Damon is the only one with a spot to lose, even
though he arguably gave the best performance of the bunch. Christian
McKay is still right on the outside for his performance in
Me and Orson Welles, and
Alfred Molina has gotten some key mentions for
An Education. Other than
that, there really is no chance that this is not what the category looks
like.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by
Sapphire
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Predicted winner: Meryl Streep
Explanation
There really is only one spot open here. Emily
Blunt is fighting with Helen Mirren for that fifth spot. I would hope
that the lovely Abbie Cornish could sneak in too, but I wouldn’t count
on it. This category is down to Streep and Bullock. I hope it is Streep,
who hasn’t won in 28 years, despite having 11 soon to be 12 nominations
in that time period. Bullock is just an overrated popular actress who
they will probably award because she had two high-grossing films this
year. I am predicting Streep out of sheer preference. Maybe Sidibe can
sneak a win. She definitely deserves it, but they will need to have
Slumdog-type of love for
Precious if she is going to
be considered for the prize.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
Predicted winner: Jeff Bridges
Explanation
There is no chance that this changes. The only
far-fetched scenario is if they give Matt Damon a nod for
The Informant and leave him
off for
Invictus, much like
they did with Tommy Lee Jones in 2007. They left him off for the Oscar
darling
No Country for Old Men
and gave him the nod for
In the
Valley of Elah. Ok, that is a stretch, even though he definitely
deserves it. I just needed some sort of alternate situation. I can’t see
Bridges losing this. He has never won before in that brilliant and
underappreciated career.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by
Sapphire
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Predicted winner: Kathryn Bigelow
Explanation
This went to Bigelow at the Critics Choice and
Cameron at the Globes. Weird that it is down to the former spouses.
Avatar is still gaining buzz.
It will be close. The other nominees are fairly locked in. Lee Daniels
is the only one who is not secure. Clint is right behind.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Predicted winner: The Hurt Locker
Explanation
Nine of these are locked in. The only one that is
not is
District 9. Everyone
loves it, and it got the Producers Guild mention.
Nine is still very possible.
Star Trek got the PGA
nomination too.
The Last Station
and
A Single Man could get
the spot. Maybe even
(500) Days
of Summer if they are in a comedy mood. The winner is coming down to
The Hurt Locker and
Avatar. I am going with the
former. They have not awarded a war film in this category since…Platoon.
It just feels like the right film at the right time.
Now for the rest of the categories:
Best Cinematography
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon
Predicted winner: Avatar
Best Art Direction
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The Young Victoria
Predicted winner: Avatar
Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
The Last Station
Nine
The Young Victoria
Predicted winner: The Young Victoria
Best Sound
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up
Predicted winner: Avatar
Best Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air
Predicted winner: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Predicted winner: Avatar
Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
Predicted winner: Avatar
Best Makeup
District 9
The Road
Star Trek
Predicted winner: District 9
Best Original Song
“I See You” – Avatar
“The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart
“(I Want To) Come Home” – Everybody’s Fine
“Cinema Italiano” – Nine
“All is Love” – Where the Wild Things Are
Predicted winner: Crazy Heart
Best Original Score
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Up
Where the Wild Things Are
Predicted winner: Up
Best Documentary Feature
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Every Little Step
Facing Ali
Food Inc.
Predicted winner: The Cove
Best Animated Feature
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
Predicted winner: Up
Best Foreign Language Film
Baaria
Letters to Father Jacob
Mother
A Prophet
The White Ribbon
Predicted winner: Letters to Father Jacob
Predicted nominations count:
Avatar: 10 noms / 5 wins
Inglourious Basterds: 8 noms / 2 wins
The Hurt Locker: 7 noms / 3 wins
District 9: 7 noms / 1 win
Up in the Air: 7 noms / 1 win
Up: 6 noms / 2 wins
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire: 5 noms
/ 1 win
Nine: 5 noms
Invictus: 4 noms
Star Trek: 4 noms
The Young Victoria: 3 noms / 1 win
A Single Man: 3 noms
Crazy Heart: 2 noms / 2 wins
An Education: 2 noms
The Last Station: 2 noms
A Serious Man: 2 noms
Where the Wild Things Are: 2 noms
The White Ribbon: 2 noms
The Cove: 1 nom / 1 win
Julie & Julia: 1 nom / 1 win
Letters to Father Jacob: 1 nom / 1 win
(500) Days of
Summer: 1 nom
Baaria: 1 nom
The Beaches of Agnes: 1 nom
The Blind Side: 1 nom
Bright Star: 1 nom
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs: 1 nom
Coraline: 1 nom
Every Little Step: 1 nom
Everybody’s Fine: 1 nom
Facing Ali: 1 nom
Fantastic Mr. Fox: 1 nom
Food Inc.: 1 nom
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus: 1 nom
The Informant!: 1 nom
The Lovely Bones: 1 nom
The Messenger: 1 nom
Mother: 1 nom
The Princess and the Frog: 1 nom
A Prophet: 1 nom
The Road: 1 nom
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 1 nom
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