2011 Oscar Predictions: May

Article by Todd Plucknett

Posted - 5/11/10

I thought it was about time to throw out my first absurdly early 2011 Oscar predictions. Unlike last year, there are no real frontrunners. Last year, almost every major director had a film come out. This year, it is going to be a contest for the little guy and the forgotten directors. I threw in a possible nomination for both of my most anticipated films of the year (Stone and Cyrus). Neither is necessarily likely, but I can hope. It is going to be an interesting summer of movies, since last year about half of the Best Picture nominees including the winner were summer releases. So we will have to keep our eyes open. Some of the “in contention” acting choices may seem completely random, and that’s because they are. I searched for actors and directors for several hours, and I came up with some films with zero buzz that have interesting premises. I could just go with the safe picks, but that just wouldn’t be as fun, would it? Some of these films and roles sound terrific. We will see how that pans out. This is what I came up with:

Disclaimer: I am assuming again that The Tree of Life will get released this year. Risky, I know, but it might actually happen this year!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Miral

The Next Three Days

The Town

True Grit
The Way Back

Predicted winner: Miral

Explanation

This is an interesting category always. It is usually the films that are the frontrunners for Best Picture, so I went with some safe picks. Miral sounds amazing. It is the new film by Julian Schnabel, and there might be some left over enthusiasm from Diving Bell. It is my top choice at the moment. The Next Three Days is a Paul Haggis film, and this sounds more likely to be recognized than Elah did. He has not gotten nominated in a couple years. The Town is a potential winner here. It is written and directed by Ben Affleck, and it has a huge cast. It could be his sophomore slump, though. True Grit is the Coens, but is it too much to have 3 of these in 4 years? I think not. The Way Back is the return of Peter Weir. It is only his second film since The Truman Show (the other being Master and Commander), and it sounds like pure Oscar bait. It should be terrific.

Others in contention

The American stars George Clooney. It did not sound too great, but it is an acclaimed director, plus the trailer looked amazing. Toy Story 3 has little explanation needed, other than a couple websites predicted this for original screenplay. I don’t get that…it’s a sequel. The Social Network is a film that no one really knows about. The people involved imply that could be better than the premise appears. Winter’s Bone looks and sounds great, but it could be this year’s The Road or something. Barney’s Version is going to fly under the radar, but it could be terrific. It has a beloved cast, so chances are people will end up seeing it. There is Shutter Island as well, but this spot seems unlikely for a nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Black Swan

Cyrus

The Company Men

Inception

Somewhere

Predicted winner: The Company Men

Explanation

Original Screenplay is where all of the most interesting stories and scripts get their nominations. Black Swan seems so weird, but Darren Aronofsky is behind it. He will get his due soon. Cyrus looks perfect, and it is the Duplass brothers. This is their most commercial film yet, and it could be treated like a Baumbach film. The Company Men is a Best Picture frontrunner as of right now. It could pick up where Up in the Air left off with that premise, but it does have one giant gorilla on its back: Kevin Costner. Inception will be nominated if it is any good at all. Somewhere is a Sofia Coppola film, and it seems to be her return to her Lost in Translation and The Virgin Suicides style. It should be amazing, especially because my boy Benicio Del Toro is in it. And Woody Allen is never out of the discussion, so his You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger should be in the mix. 

Others in contention

The Kids Are All Right is getting huge buzz. I just do not think it sounds like total Oscar material. All Good Things had some buzz last year, but got pushed back. It still sounds good, though. Biutiful is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. It is bound to get a nomination somewhere. The Fighter is by a polarizing filmmaker in David O. Russell. People either love or hate I Heart Huckabees and Three Kings. This sounds more the Academy’s speed. Greenberg’s love will need to last all year, but it is by a former nominee, so at least that’s something. The Tree of Life’s status is just so uncertain. Screenplay might be a stretch. Blue Valentine has been getting strong praise since Sundance. Another Year is Mike Leigh, so you can count on it getting the British vote. How Do You Know is the new film by James L. Brooks. He has not gotten love since As Good As It Gets. This could be his ticket. Finally, Hereafter is the Clint Eastwood film written by Peter Morgan. That should ensure a nomination here, but screenplay has never been the strongpoint of his films. I would be happy to be proven wrong in this case.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life

Elle Fanning – Somewhere

Amy Ryan – Jack Goes Boating

Kristen Scott Thomas – Nowhere Boy

Naomi Watts – You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger

Predicted winner: Naomi Watts

Explanation

This is an excruciatingly hard category to pick at this point. I went with a few familiar faces and a couple newcomers. Jessica Chastain is one of the principle roles in Terrence Malick’s long-awaited epic. Acting nominations have never been popular for his films, but this one seems different. Elle Fanning has been doing great work for a couple years. Being a decent role in a Coppola film could get her nominated. Amy Ryan is a recent nominee and has an interesting role in a film directed by costar Philip Seymour Hoffman. I like the sound of it. Kristen Scott Thomas was left off for I’ve Loved You So Long and everyone seems to love her. A part in a biopic role seems like a logical choice here. Naomi Watts somehow has gotten nominated only once. This is a Woody Allen film. That normally means gold for his supporting ladies. She has to be the frontrunner as of right now. She also has a buzzed role in Mother and Child.

Others in contention

Amy Adams in The Fighter has gotten some mentions as being a contender. Rebecca Hall has The Town, and she is coming off a couple terrific turns in the last couple years. Anne-Marie Duff in Nowhere Boy got some mentions last season, but the film isn’t getting released until this year. Maria Bello has The Company Men, and Kirsten Dunst has All Good Things. Many people are citing Bryce Dallas Howard as a possible nominee for Hereafter, but she just is not talented enough. Elizabeth Banks probably has a good-size role in The Next Three Days, which could be a hit.  Catherine Keener and Marisa Tomei are probably going to have their fair share of good scenes in Cyrus.

Now, the performances that I found and I think are worth keeping track of starts with Laura Linney in Mark Ruffalo’s Sympathy for Delicious. I mentioned it last year as well. I just hope it’s good. Vanessa Redgrave is a past winner and got left off for Atonement, so a true story like The Whistleblower could spark raves if her part is big enough. Rosamund Pike is in my under-the-radar pick Barney’s Version. Frances Conroy is a wonderful actress who has an interesting-sounding part in Waking Madison opposite Elisabeth Shue. The status of the film is uncertain, though. Finally, I wanted to include one of my favorites Lauren Ambrose, who stars in a wonderful-sounding little film called Tonight at Noon. She is surrounded by a terrific cast, and as she has proved (in my eyes at least), she can shine with big stars around her.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE 

The Predicted Five

Bill Murray – Get Low

Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know

Sam Rockwell – Betty Anne Waters

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Predicted winner: Bill Murray

Explanation

This could be a wishful-thinking category. I include Bill Murray, who has already been praised for Get Low. People still complain that he did not win for Lost in Translation. This should be his moment. Jack Nicholson is reteaming with the guy who has gotten him two Oscars in the past, and he is bound to cement another nomination here for How Do You Know. Sam Rockwell should have been nominated for Moon. He now has a baity role opposite Hilary Swank playing a man who was wrongfully convicted of murder. Mark Ruffalo’s time may come this year with the buzzed The Kids Are All Right and Shutter Island being a box office hit. Geoffrey Rush is always in contention, and rightfully so. The King’s Speech sounds terrific, playing aside Colin Firth and Helena Bonham Carter. I almost want to guarantee this nomination.

Others in contention

The Coens always get their supporting guys in, so Josh Brolin seems to be the best bet for True Grit. Depending on the size of the roles, Sean Penn and Brad Pitt could get in for The Tree of Life. Chris Cooper may be the standout in The Company Men. Tom Wilkinson has a couple interesting roles in The Conspirator and The Debt, directed by Robert Redford and John Madden, respectively. Samuel L. Jackson might get some love for his role in Mother and Child. John Malkovich has Secretariat. Aaron Eckhart is opposite Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole. It is based on a play, which is always good for its actors. Paul Rudd has How Do You Know. It is about time that he gets recognized for being as talented as he is. Ed Harris probably has a good part in The Way Back. We also have Hank Azaria and Oliver Platt in a quirky film called Love and Other Drugs.

One that I found was Guy Pearce, who is in an indie film called Animal Kingdom. It won big at Sundance, and he is an actor that is bound to get noticed at some point. Barry Pepper has an interesting part playing Kevin Spacey’s protégé in Casino Jack. If people see it, who knows? It could be this year’s Training Day. He also has True Grit to provide some insurance. Nick Nolte is playing an alcoholic in Warrior, which could resonate with voters who want to re-validate him. Christopher Walken and Vincent D’Onofrio are amidst an intriguing cast in the true crime drama The Irishman. Finally, I couldn’t really find anywhere else to throw it in, but I have to mention Burke and Hare, a film by John Landis. The film has Tim Curry and Tom Wilkinson supporting Andy Serkis and Simon Pegg. It sounds hilarious. It would be so cool if the Academy notices a little comedy like this. This category would be the only real possibility, other than maybe screenplay if it is really good and does well at the box office.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE 

The Predicted Five

Hiam Abbass – Miral

Juliette Binoche – Copie conforme

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right

Elisabeth Shue – Waking Madison

Predicted winner: Hiam Abbass

Explanation

This will be an interesting category. It is always difficult to predict this early. Independent films normally get some love here.  My choice for the winner is Hiam Abbass for Miral. She was praised, yet got ignored by the awards for The Visitor. Miral seems like it could be this year’s Hotel Rwanda. Expect her to have a bunch of emotional scenes. Juliette Binoche hasn’t been back since 2000. Copie conforme looks like a good chance for her. The teaser trailer looked great as well. Jennifer Lawrence is the best young actress in the business, and Winter’s Bone seems like the role that will get her recognized. She was terrific last year in both The Burning Plain and The Poker House. Julianne Moore is always in contention, and The Kids Are All Right seems like another nomination for her. Elisabeth Shue still has only that one nomination, and Waking Madison seems like a logical return to good acting. She plays a woman with multiple personality disorder, so if she nails it, the Academy will be all over that. 

Others in contention

Annette Bening has some great roles, and she gets snubbed for a decent amount of them. Mother and Child is probably another one, along with The Kids Are All Right. Naomi Watts plays a CIA agent opposite Sean Penn. Could be this year’s The Interpreter. Michelle Williams will definitely be in the mix for the indie Blue Valentine. Natalie Portman could garner her second nomination for Aronofsky’s Black Swan. Hilary Swank is probably right outside the top 5 for the title role in Betty Anne Waters. Nicole Kidman has Rabbit Hole, and Dame Helen Mirren has The Tempest, Love Ranch, and The Debt. Any of those could get her another nod. Reese Witherspoon is the lead in James L. Brooks’s How Do You Know. That normally means Oscar gold, but she won very recently and she hasn’t exactly wowed us with quality follow-ups. Anne Hathaway has Love and Other Drugs. Also, Robin Wright Penn has The Conspirator, but Robert Redford films do not always pan out.

One of them random performances I am throwing out there is Leslie Manville in Mike Leigh’s Another Year. She is an unknown, but those are the people that seem to shine the brightest in his films. Anna Paquin still has Margaret coming out. This has been in post-production for about 4 years now. It still sounds terrific. Julia Roberts is always in talks for a nomination, and Eat Pray Love seems like an ideal role for her. The trailer implied that she is a contender. Finally, Sharon Stone has not been nominated in 15 years. Satisfaction has a promising premise, and she could be the heart of the story.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Leonardo DiCaprio – Inception

Colin Farrell - The Way Back

James Franco – Howl

Paul Giamatti – Barney’s Version

Predicted winner: Paul Giamatti

Explanation

Ok, this lineup looks way too awesome for it actually happen. Jeff Bridges will no doubt be on the verge of a second straight Oscar with his role in True Grit. The role was like written for him. Leonardo DiCaprio will likely get nominated for either Shutter Island or Inception, but he will still have to wait to take home the gold. Colin Farrell has been doing consistently great work for several years now, and The Way Back might be the film that gets him that first nomination. James Franco got raves at Sundance for his role as Allen Ginsberg in Howl. He needs a nomination. Paul Giamatti has that single nomination for Cinderella Man. My sleeper pick Barney’s Version sounds terrific, and it could/should be the role that gets Giamatti that lead nomination and potential win.

Others in contention

Matt Damon will be in the mix once again with Hereafter, but two years in a row with the same director probably won’t fly. Colin Firth has The King’s Speech, which will get him a second straight BAFTA win most likely. Stephen Dorff would be a new face, being the lead in Coppola’s Somewhere. Sean Penn has Fair Game and The Tree of Life. Javier Bardem has the lead in Inarritu’s Biutiful. I expect great things from him. Mark Wahlberg has The Fighter, and we know that Russell can certainly direct him. His most underrated performance was in Three Kings. George Clooney is obviously possible and semi-likely for The American. Ryan Gosling has Blue Valentine. Russell Crowe hasn’t gotten the nod in 9 years. He is the lead in Haggis’s The Next Three Days. Robert Duvall has gotten love already for Get Low. Johnny Depp’s name will get him in contention for the Hunter S. Thompson novel adaptation The Rum Diary. Jim Broadbent is in Leigh’s Another Year. Hopefully Jim Carrey can pull off greatness in I Love You Philip Morris. Finally, Philip Seymour Hoffman directs himself in Jack Goes Boating. It sounds wonderful, but directing yourself normally doesn’t garner awards.

I have to mention my most anticipated film, the brilliant John Curran’s Stone. Robert De Niro and Edward Norton should be in contention for it. Casey Affleck has The Killer Inside Me, which looks amazing, but it could be this year’s The Bad Lieutenant and no one will see it. Aaron Johnson was nominated for a BAFTA last year for playing John Lennon in Nowhere Boy, which is getting released here this year. Add in his breakout role in box office smash Kick-Ass, and he has the makings of a surprise nomination for that biopic role. Chris Evans finally has a decent-sounding role in Satisfaction playing a male escort coming to grips with his life. It could be this year’s Mysterious Skin, though, and only indie awards will be kicked his way. Kevin Spacey has been sputtering in recent years. He has an odd-sounding role in Inseparable, which could be this year’s Gran Torino or something. Terrence Howard is due for another nod, and he is playing in a war film called Red Tails, which is about the first African-American pilots in WWII. George Lucas is involved. It could do what Miracle at St. Anna didn’t. Finally, the star of ET Henry Thomas is playing Hank Williams in The Last Ride.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Christopher Nolan – Inception

Julian Schnabel – Miral

Peter Weir – The Way Back

John Wells – The Company Men

Predicted winner: Peter Weir

Explanation

This is a much easier list to come up with. There aren’t as many options. Darren Aronofsky has been knocking on the door for years. This might be the story that finally gets him some love. Christopher Nolan was so groundbreaking that the Academy changed its rules for his picture alone. He will get nominated no matter what the film is like. Julian Schnabel is directing one of the favorites, and it sounds just amazing. Peter Weir has never won an Oscar after 6 nominations. This could be his ticket. John Wells would be the new face, and his film sounds like a winner. He should glide to a nomination if his film lives up to its premise.

Others in contention

Among those getting left out is Sofia Coppola for Somewhere. A lady won this award last year, so that will probably mean bad news for her. Clint Eastwood is bound to get rejected again for Hereafter, even though it sounds different than anything he has done before. Don’t I say that about every one of his films? Martin Scorsese has three straight Picture-Director nominations, so Shutter Island could still be in the mix depending on its DVD campaign. Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life project is just too uncertain to predict. Robert Redford would be a cool return to greatness if he were nominated for The Conspirator. James L. Brooks should never be counted out either. His How Do You Know could be a sleeper.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten

Another Year

Black Swan

The Company Men

Hereafter

Inception

Miral

Somewhere

The Tree of Life

True Grit

The Way Back

Predicted winner: Miral

Explanation

Now, down to the best picture ten. I still cannot believe we have ten nominees, but here we go. Last year, only two of the Best Picture nominees were not nominated in the screenplay categories, so that is the basis here. I have 7 of the films matching up. Another Year will be getting the British vote, which always goes far. Mike Leigh is a past nominee 6 times over. That should be enough. Black Swan should have enough enthusiasm to take it to a nomination. I am sure The Wrestler would have made it if there were ten slots in 2008. The Company Men could be the winner, but that is what I thought about Up in the Air. It might be too light to take home the prize, but it should be nominated at least. Hereafter should capitalize on everyone snubbing Eastwood 9 times in the last two years. Inception will be the blockbuster of the group. Miral seems likely to soar to a nomination. Also, Diving Bell got left off in 2007, so that could even increase voter urgency to recognize this. Somewhere is probably a safe bet. Coppola needs to redeem herself for her misstep Marie Antoinette, which wasn’t all that bad anyway. The Tree of Life should make an appearance here simply on principle. It has been in the works for so long. If it lives up to half of its hype, it will get a nomination. True Grit is the Coen Brothers. It will likely run circles around the original, unless it turns out like The Ladykillers. Nah, that can’t happen can it? Finally, I have been pumping up The Way Back this whole time. I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes this, since 2005 was the last time that Picture and Director split. I just feel like Miral and The Company Men are a bit more relevant. 

Others in contention

First four out: The American, Toy Story 3, Shutter Island, and How Do You Know. I am hoping that The American is as good as its trailer implies. I could be a hit. Toy Story 3 is in the running for obvious reasons, but I just have a bad feeling about this. It is a sequel, and we know how much that works for the Academy. I hope I’m wrong. Shutter Island might still be talked about next February. The ten spots make this a bit more likely than a normal year. How Do You Know should be in the mix if it really is a return to form for Brooks. Also possible is Ben Affleck’s The Town, Robert Redford’s The Conspirator, and John Madden’s The Debt. Oh, and perhaps The Kids Are All Right can prove me wrong and be the indie comedy in the Best Picture race.

That’s all I have right now. I will update this in a few months. This will likely get destroyed by then, but then again, I could look like a genius. That makes it worth it.