2010 Oscar Predictions: August

Article by Todd Plucknett

Posted - 8/12/10

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I thought it was about time for an update to my predictions. Not too many of my predictions have been disproven, simply because most of the films have yet to get a theatrical release. Some new additions have come up due to some trailers, however, and a couple films have gotten pushed back a year. Here is what the current state of the Oscars looks like:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Miral

The Social Network

The Town

Toy Story 3

The Way Back

Predicted winner: The Social Network

Explanation

This group of predictions does not look too much different than it did in May. Miral has gotten a trailer released, and it looks really good. Maybe not the Best Picture winner I was thinking of, but it is going to be a contender. The Social Network’s trailer looks absolutely perfect. I cannot wait to see it, and if that trailer is any indication, this could be the one to beat at the Oscars in several categories. The Town has the best trailer of the year, and we all know that Ben Affleck can write. Toy Story 3…lock. The Way Back’s status is quiet and uncertain, but it still looks amazing on paper.

Other contenders include Paul Haggis’s The Next Three Days, which could go either way. Winter’s Bone doesn’t seem likely in this category, but then again, Frozen River got its nod for screenplay. True Grit is the Coens, and it can still easily slide into this category. I like Barney’s Version’s trailer, and it could be an under-the-radar nomination in the vein of In Bruges. Shutter Island is still possible, depending on how the next few months go for it. Inception’s popularity is hurting it. Never Let Me Go is right outside as well.

 BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Black Swan

The Company Men

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

Predicted winner: Inception

Explanation

This is a stacked category. The early word on Black Swan has been tremendous. The Company Men has a great trailer, but it will need to compete with that leftover love for Up in the Air, due to its similar subject. Inception is the clear frontrunner. It is a great script, no doubt, but it is getting a little out of control. The Kids Are All Right is making a run at being the beloved indie comedy of the year. The King’s Speech seems to be gaining momentum.

Somewhere still has Coppola’s name next to it, so it is still in contention. Mike Leigh’s Another Year is getting good reviews. David O. Russell’s The Fighter is still unknown. Woody Allen is always in contention. Hereafter still looks like it has a chance if they stop snubbing Clint films. Blue Valentine has gotten love from everywhere it played. Cyrus sort of came and went, so its potential nomination seems unlikely. James L. Brooks’s How Do You Know still sounds like it has a chance. Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours has been coming out of nowhere garnering buzz. Dustin Lance Black’s What’s Wrong with Virginia seems to be another baity, political drama. The Tree of Life…who knows?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Helena Bonham-Carter – The King’s Speech

Elle Fanning – Somewhere

Freida Pinto – Miral

Kristin Scott Thomas – Nowhere Boy

Kristen Stewart – Welcome to the Rileys

Predicted winner: Helena Bonham-Carter

Explanation

This is shaping up to be absolutely pathetic. I cannot find a winner in any of the films. Helena Bonham-Carter is the closest thing, whose film seems to be getting good early marks. She steals almost every movie she is in, but I am somewhat going out on a limb here. Elle Fanning has the goods, and her role looks great. Freida Pinto looks really good in one of the frontrunners Miral, but it is unclear if she is lead or not. Kristen Scott Thomas is always in contention, so why not? Kristen Stewart looks like she truly has some brilliant scenes in Welcome to the Riley’s, playing a teenage stripper. The trailer looked like the acting is going to be amazing. This could be three big roles for her this year, and the one that will bring her the recognition for being the great actress she really is.

The rest of these are long shots, or at least they seem that way. Dianne Wiest in Rabbit Hole has been mentioned, but her film has Nicole Kidman in it, so it is probably going to suck. Jack Goes Boating looks somewhat cliché, but Amy Ryan looks like she could have some truly great, emotional scenes.  Lesley Manville has Mike Leigh’s Another Year, but who knows if she is lead or not? Blake Lively looks amazing in The Town, as does Rebecca Hall. Marion Cotillard has gotten high praise for Inception, but then again, she did last year for Public Enemies. Jessica Chastain for The Tree of Life seems less likely, mainly because Malick has never had an acting nomination for his films. Elizabeth Banks could have a juicy role in The Next Three Days. You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger could be a weaker Woody Allen film, but Naomi Watts is still deserving of being mentioned. Vanessa Redgrave could play her veteran card and sneak in for The Whistleblower. Why not throw in Mila Kunis for Black Swan? I can dream, can’t I?

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know

Sam Rockwell – Conviction

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Justin Timberlake – The Social Network

Predicted winner: Geoffrey Rush

Explanation

This could be the category to watch (it always is). Jack Nicholson could get another nomination, and James L. Brooks has held his ticket multiple times. Sam Rockwell needs to get nominated soon, and Conviction (formerly Betty Anne Waters) looks like he delivers the goods. Mark Ruffalo is in the same boat as Rockwell, and his film is getting high remarks from everyone. Geoffrey Rush is always giving showy performances, and his role will likely be great as the king’s speech therapist. Justin Timberlake looks awesome in the trailer, and after Alpha Dog, we know that he is a born performer. Plus, the Academy likes singers acting. Yeah, I am thinking that highly of The Social Network at the moment.

Bill Murray still is right in contention for Get Low. The Coens could get Josh Brolin or Barry Pepper in for True Grit. Pepper is more likely, since he also has that awesome-looking part in Bagman. Guy Pearce has The Animal Kingdom, which is gaining some buzz. There are Sean Penn and Brad Pitt in The Tree of Life. Ed Harris and Colin Farrell might be lead or supporting in The Way Back. Christian Bale transformed his body again for The Fighter, but his buzzed roles always underwhelm the Academy. Zack Galifianakis is in It’s Kind of a Funny Story, by the guys who did Half Nelson. Everyone loves him. I almost put him in the top 5. I still want to throw in Nick Nolte as the sleeper in Warrior. There are tons more that are in contention, but this paragraph would be pages long. Oh yeah, and anyone in The Company Men. Chris Cooper and Kevin Costner look really strong.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Hiam Abbass – Miral

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Julia Roberts – Eat Pray Love

Elisabeth Shue – Waking Madison

Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Predicted winner: Hiam Abbass

Explanation

Hiam Abbass has not given me any reason to not predict her for the win. Jennifer Lawrence seems like a lock, but I am afraid that they will snub her flawless performance. Julia Roberts…enough said. Elisabeth Shue is still my sleeper pick, but I am stubborn, so I am still predicting her. Hailee Steinfeld is the female lead in True Grit, which is a juicy part, but it was annoyingly played in the original. Not too many Coen characters can be described as such.

First runners up are Annette Bening and Julianne Moore for The Kids Are All Right. They will probably split votes. Anne Hathaway in Love and Other Drugs seems likely. Robin Wright Penn has The Conspirator, directed by Robert Redford. Natalie Portman is probably going to be amazing in Black Swan. Hilary Swank will need to be incredible to get votes for Conviction since her two wins are considered a joke by many. Jennifer Connelly has What’s Wrong with Virginia. Reese Witherspoon is the lead in James L. Brooks’s film. Rachel Weisz seems to always be loved, and her part in The Whistleblower is likely to get her critical praise. Finally, Michelle Williams stars in Blue Valentine, which I have no confidence in. She also has Shutter Island, so you never know.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

James Franco – Howl

Paul Giamatti – Barney’s Version

Kevin Spacey – Bagman

Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

Predicted winner: Paul Giamatti

Explanation

Just like last time, this category is just filled with awesomeness. There is no way it ends up this cool. Jeff Bridges might win, actually. James Franco has Howl and 127 Hours, which is just as likely. Paul Giamatti can still be my frontrunner. Kevin Spacey looks amazing in Bagman, and from those who have seen it, they say it is his best work in many years. Mark Wahlberg deserved a nom in Russell’s Three Kings, and he also has the box office smash The Other Guys. He will be fresh on the voters’ minds.

Robert Duvall has Get Low, but the critical praise is not great enough to garner a nomination it seems. Colin Farrell has London Boulevard and The Way Back, but he may be supporting in one or both of them. Leonardo DiCaprio seems unlikely in Inception, but Shutter Island is still hanging in the balance. Matt Damon could secure two noms in a row if he is great in Hereafter. Javier Bardem has gotten huge praise for Biutiful. Of course Johnny Depp is possible, and he has The Rum Diary this year. Russell Crowe could get nominated for Haggis’s The Next Three Days. Colin Firth has The King’s Speech, which will probably get nominated, but I already gave it two acting wins so I am leaving him off. Sadly, Stone looks way too cool for the Oscars to take notice. My guys De Niro and Norton will have to wait for another time. George Clooney looks terrific in The American. Michael Douglas has The Solitary Man and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. They may want to finally give him the nom that they missed for Wonder Boys. James Gandolfini looks sensational in Welcome to the Rileys. Finally Ben Affleck and Philip Seymour Hoffman direct themselves. It works on occasion, so they are worth mentioning.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Lisa Chodolenko – The Kids Are All Right

David Fincher – The Social Network

Christopher Nolan – Inception

Julian Schnabel – Miral

Peter Weir – The Way Back

Predicted winner: Peter Weir

Explanation

The Kids Are All Right is at its peak in buzz, and everything just points to it being the indie comedy that knocks on the Best Picture door. Lisa Chodolenko will get swept in with her film. The Social Network is going to be amazing. David Fincher could secure his second nomination in three years. Christopher Nolan is a lock. Julian Schnabel will likely be nominated for Miral. Peter Weir needs a win at some point. He has been snubbed too many times.

Others in contention include Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, Danny Boyle for 127 Hours, Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, and of course Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life. Ben Affleck could secure a nom here for The Town to completely legitimize his filmmaking talent. Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford, and Sofia Coppola are also right behind. Then there is Marty. It could happen if the Inception buzz fades.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten

Another Year

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

Miral

The Social Network

The Town

Toy Story 3

The Way Back

Winter’s Bone

Predicted winner: The Way Back

Explanation

Ok, now to the big one. Another Year is Mike Leigh. The British vote should be enough. Inception is a lock for a nomination it seems. The Kids Are All Right just seems really likely at this moment. The King’s Speech is going to be terrific. Miral looks great, but it may not live up to what Schnabel did with Diving Bell. The Social Network seems totally likely. The Town deserves a mention after that trailer. Toy Story 3 got the best reviews of the past 10 years or so, and it made a truckload of money. The Way Back has enough going for it to be the frontrunner. Winter’s Bone is just rolling along with its Frozen River-type appeal.

First four out: Black Swan, The Company Men, Hereafter, True Grit. Black Swan seems and looks too amazing to be nominated. The Company Men is also total Oscar bait, but Up in the Air might kill its nominations. I hope I am wrong about that. Hereafter will probably be snubbed. True Grit is a possibility if the Coens continue their amazing streak of serious movies. How Do You Know might finally be the critical return of Brooks, but he really has been nowhere close in some 13 years. Somewhere’s status is unknown, but its trailer looks good. The Fighter is a possibility. Love and Other Drugs getting positive mentions. Boyle’s 127 Hours is right there. Finally, The Tree of Life I decided to just leave off my predictions because it is not getting screened anywhere. If it sneaks in a limited release date in December, then it will be right back on the predictions list.

That is all for a little while. I will post again when some of these films finally get released, so not until like October or November. Most of these I really have no clue, so I just changed up some stuff that really had no reason to be changed. Some of them are wishful thinking. I am prepared for them to get trashed, but it is always fun to speculate anyway.