2010 Oscar Predictions: October

Article by Todd Plucknett

Posted - 10/17/10

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Now that some of the contenders have been released, I figured that I could update my Oscar predictions. Since the last entry, there have been a few key festivals, most notably The Toronto International Film Festival, which always anoints one or two films that will end up being major Oscar contenders. This year, those were The King’s Speech and Black Swan. It also shot down the previous favorites Never Let Me Go and Miral, which have gotten mired in mediocre and/or bad initial reviews. I still have some faith in Never Let Me Go, though, since major critics such as Peter Travers still loved it. It is this year’s Atonement for sure, but probably will not resonate quite as much with worldwide viewers. Also, the ongoing saga of The Three of Life continues, which is now slated for early 2011…or 2012…who knows? I just want to see it already! Anyway, here is what I came up with:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

The Way Back

Predicted winner: The Social Network

Explanation

This category always seems to take shape early on. This is about as final as I could come up with. The Social Network is the clear frontrunner with its flawless adaptation by Aaron Sorkin, who amazingly has never been nominated. 127 Hours is getting great reviews, and there probably is leftover love for Boyle’s last film, Slumdog Millionaire. Toy Story 3 is a lock for a nomination, and the one film that I can actually see taking down The Social Network. True Grit is the Coens, and it looks riveting. Lock. Finally, The Way Back got a release date hammered out and a trailer was released, and it looks like the kind of epic adventure that the Academy loves. I think it is in.

Others in contention

6. The Town

They may want to wait a bit longer before starting to throw serious Oscars at Ben Affleck. He deserves a nod here, though, just like he did for Gone Baby Gone.

7. Winter’s Bone

A nomination here still doesn’t seem likely. It is going to need a big DVD push or critic sweep for it to get the kind of Oscar love it is capable of.

8. Love and Other Drugs

Edward Zwick directing is always interesting. It has a cool young cast, and it looks like a really sharp script.

9. Rabbit Hole

Maybe I am the only one who does not really believe in this movie, but its momentum is steadily building.

10. Secretariat

The big Hollywood picture could create some noise, but this is more The Blind Side it appears. Screenplay just isn’t going to happen.

11. The Next Three Days

Paul Haggis’s picture just seems too action-oriented for the ceremony. I am not counting it out, though. It could surprise.

12. Shutter Island

This film needs to start getting some steam, or it will be completely forgotten.

13. Barney’s Version

Still under-the-radar, but that is starting to suggest irrelevance. I still like its chances in lead actor, at least.

14. Never Let Me Go

Its window is closing. It might be strictly an arts and techs film.

15. Miral

It is Schnabel, so I will continue to mention it until it actually gets a theatrical release.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

Another Year

Black Swan

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

Predicted winner: The King’s Speech

Explanation

This category features a handful of the Best Picture contenders. The frontrunner is The King’s Speech, which has gotten high praise at the festivals. It just seems totally the Academy’s speed. Mike Leigh wrote Another Year, so that is probably in. Inception seems to be losing its steam, but it is going to be really hard to deny Nolan in the screenplay category. The Kids Are All Right is the indie comedy of the year. The only one that I am not sure of is Black Swan. At some point the Academy is going to have to stop snubbing Aronofsky. This might be the film that breaks through for him.

Others in contention

6. The Fighter

The trailer for this looks really interesting. David O. Russell is a hard sell, but this seems so much like the classic underdog stories. The Academy might not be able to resist.

7. Somewhere

This got some festival love, and it could well bring Ms. Coppola back to the Oscars.

8. Made in Dagenham

This has built up some momentum, but its status is really unknown. I haven’t completely bought into it yet.

9. Biutiful

This has a strategic limited release slated for December 29, which will help. Inarritu films have yet to be denied by the Oscar nominations.

10. Blue Valentine

The trailer looks really good. Relationship dramas are never that strong in this category, though. Look at Closer, for example…

11. The Company Men

This has almost no buzz, but it has yet to be seen. I still think it has a decent shot.

12. Hereafter

This doesn’t look like the Academy’s cup of tea, but it does look fascinating.

13. What’s Wrong with Virginia

Dustin Lance Black’s directorial debut, just two years removed from winning an Oscar for Milk. I would say that is worthy of mentioning.

14. How Do You Know

James L. Brooks is not exactly in As Good As It Gets form it seems.

15. You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger

Same goes for Woody Allen.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Elle Fanning – Somewhere

Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole

Predicted winner: Amy Adams

Explanation

This category is lacking, as usual. Amy Adams looks tremendous in the trailer for The Fighter, which following two nominations, seems like the kind of role that could get her a statue. Helena Bonham Carter seems like a sure bet in a Best Picture frontrunner. She has not been back in 13 years. Elle Fanning seems like she has the sort of child role to get raves and support. Jacki Weaver has unanimously impressed for the Sundance hit from Australia Animal Kingdom. Dianne Wiest is a two-time winner, and that is always worth something. She was the most interesting part of that preview.

Others in contention

6. Kristen Stewart – Welcome to the Rileys

She is one of the biggest stars in the world, and the whole stripper/hooker part is not exactly a tough sell with the Academy.

7. Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham

One of the stronger underdog films features a beloved actress. She is said to be terrific here.

8. Leslie Manville – Another Year

Mike Leigh films are always buzzed, and she is said to be the best in the film. Lead or supporting?

9. Blake Lively – The Town

The best performance in the film, and the one most likely to get nominated.

10. Kristen Scott Thomas – Nowhere Boy

Her film is not getting much buzz, but I still have confidence in her.

11. Mila Kunis – Black Swan

She looks amazing, but she might not be ready yet.

12. Barbara Hershey – Black Swan

Is this the comeback of the year? Her part seems very small, but I would not doubt her making it in.

13. Rebecca Hall – The Town

Her part is much bigger than Lively’s, but somehow leaves less of an impact.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Matt Damon – True Grit

Ed Harris – The Way Back

Andrew Garfield – The Social Network

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Predicted winner: Geoffrey Rush

Explanation

This category is stacked, as usual. Geoffrey Rush is a lock for a nomination, as well as a win at this point. Matt Damon also has Hereafter and The Adjustment Bureau (early 2011), but the Coen Brothers’ film seems like the place where they will give him his nomination. Ed Harris needs a win soon, and this could be another good chance for him. Andrew Garfield may not be the scene-stealer, but he has all the emotional scenes. Mark Ruffalo seems to finally be on track for his first, long-deserved nomination.

Others in contention

6. Sam Rockwell – Conviction

I am sad to say that I fear that he could miss out on another nomination. He will make it eventually.

7. Justin Timberlake – The Social Network

The scene-stealer could surprise, but they would choose Garfield over him, unless the film completely sweeps and nominates both.

8. Christian Bale – The Fighter

He transforms himself again, but his off-camera stuff might hinder his chances. He looks to be astonishing in the film, though.

9. Bill Murray – Get Low

He has lost most of his buzz, but if he steals a couple critic awards, he will be right back in the race.

10. Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know

It is still Jack in a James L. Brooks film, even though it looks just too light for him to get in.

11. Vincent Cassel – Black Swan­

He has been around for a while, and this could be his best shot at a nomination yet.

12. Aaron Eckhart – Rabbit Hole

He has gotten high praise out of the festivals.

13. Jeremy Renner – The Town

It could be too early for him to get his second nomination.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right

Sally Hawkins – Made in Dagenham

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Predicted winner: Annette Bening

Explanation

Even though she does not deserve it for The Kids Are All Right, it appears that Annette Bening is going to run away with the win that she should have had for either The Grifters or Bugsy. Sally Hawkins was totally snubbed in 2008, so they might want to make up for that. Jennifer Lawrence got universal appeal, and she is still going strong. Natalie Portman is said to be just perfect. Michelle Williams seems like Blue Valentine’s best shot at a nomination.

Others in contention

6. Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right

They should have campaigned her in supporting. That way, she could have finally won her Oscar. The last time two lead actresses from the same film were nominated was 1991.

7. Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

I think that it will either be her or Lawrence, not both.

8. Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

She is getting the buzz to take it all the way, but I just do not buy the hype.

9. Lesley Manville – Another Year

Category confusion could cost her the nomination.

10. Diane Lane – Secretariat

I am willing to guarantee a SAG nom/win, but the Oscar seems unlikely.

11. Carey Mulligan – Never Let Me Go

She has been all over the place this year, and she could still sneak out a nomination for this. Everyone seems to love her.

12. Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs

Could be a comedy-drama that the Academy loves, but also could just be another lame rom-com. We will see.

13. Hilary Swank – Conviction

It is almost like the Academy doesn’t even want her to come close to another win.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Robert Duvall – Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

Predicted winner: Colin Firth

Explanation

This seems to be taking shape already. Colin Firth is as near to a lock for the win as is possible in October. Jeff Bridges was born to play Rooster Cogburn, and getting directed by the Coens always helps. Robert Duvall is a legend, and this is the kind of performance that a veteran is rewarded for. And he has that superb “Oscar scene” in the end. Jesse Eisenberg is the star and best performance in the film. It just seems like it is time that he gets nominated after so many great performances in great films. James Franco has the role of a lifetime, and he could easily get his first nomination.

Others in contention

6. Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

The buzz for the film is only building. He could get swept in.

7. Paul Giamatti – Barney’s Version

He needs to win at some point.

8. Javier Bardem – Biutiful

He is said to be just devastating in the film. He could get the necessary first place votes to become part of the party.

9. Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine

People love him, and relationships dramas are normally successful in the acting categories.

10. Matt Damon – Hereafter

He looks incredible in the preview, but we will have to wait for the reviews to come out. Normally Clint actors get nominated.

11. Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island / Inception

One of his films needs to get nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. He will probably split votes with himself.

12. Johnny Depp – The Tourist

The movie looks too weird, but it is Depp and an Oscar-winning filmmaker, so who knows?

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

Danny Boyle – 127 Hours

David Fincher – The Social Network

Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

Christopher Nolan – Inception

Peter Weir – The Way Back

Predicted winner: David Fincher

Explanation

The only person I can see beating David Fincher at this point is Peter Weir, just because he has somehow never won before. His film is going to need to be astonishing to get in that league, though. Danny Boyle won recently, so he will be happy with just a nomination. Tom Hooper is in because he directed one of the favorites. Christopher Nolan seems like a sure-bet, but we all thought he was in for The Dark Knight, as well. His vision alone should guarantee his nod here.

Others in contention

6. Mike Leigh – Another Year

Not all Leigh films are loved by the Academy, so we will have to wait for its theatrical release to see how this one will fare.

7. Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

He will likely deserve the nom, but the Academy doesn’t like him for whatever reason.

8. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – True Grit

It is said to be one of the best films of the year, but how many nominations and wins can they give this duo?

9. David O. Russell – The Fighter

They do not always like him, but this is totally Academy material.

10. Lisa Chodolenko – The Kids Are All Right

She directed one of the likely Best Picture nominees, and sometimes the comedy directors get in.

11. Sophia Coppola – Somewhere

She is a former nominee in this category, so she is a legitimate choice.

12. Ben Affleck – The Town

I just do not see them giving him a nomination here, even though the direction in both of his films is one of the best aspects.

13. Clint Eastwood – Hereafter

Will their snubbing tendency continue? Probably.

14. Lee Unkrich – Toy Story 3

It could be a Best Picture contender, so why not nominate the director?

15. Martin Scorsese – Shutter Island

He is going to need some precursors to get back in the race.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten

127 Hours

Another Year

Black Swan

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

The Way Back

Predicted winner: The Social Network

Explanation

This is really tough. The winner, The Social Network, was easy to pick, but could this be the Citizen Kane or The Graduate situation where it gets nominated but loses? It could happen, since many of the voters are older and might not get swept up in the internet age masterpiece like the younger voters will. 127 Hours and Another Year seem like locks because of their directors’ goodwill with the Academy. Black Swan just is going to have too much acclaim to not make it. I am sure that The Wrestler would have made a lineup of 10 in ’08. Inception has the box office, so it is probably getting nominated. The Kids Are All Right is the indie comedy of the year. The King’s Speech is the British film that will get nominated and probably not win. Toy Story 3 is the conclusion to the series, and could make some noise if it takes the screenplay category. True Grit seems like a sure-thing. The Way Back feels like it is going to be nominated regardless of how good it is.

Others in contention

11. The Fighter

It is just on the outside. It could easily sneak in.

12. Winter’s Bone

This will need to get some precursor love to get in the final 10. Maybe the comparisons to Frozen River will help.

13. Secretariat

The big classic Hollywood picture could resonate with the older voters.

14. The Town

It just doesn’t seem like a Best Picture nominee.

15. Made in Dagenham

It has good material and a great cast, but is it more than just North Country?

16. Rabbit Hole

I don’t buy it, but it has to be mentioned.

17. Blue Valentine

It seems too small for this category.

18. Hereafter

If it has a monster box office and great reviews, then it could slide in.

19. Shutter Island

It needs to build up some steam soon.

20. Never Let Me Go

Never underestimate the British voters. This seems like a longshot, though.

21. Love and Other Drugs

This Zwick film just does not seem like it can be mentioned on enough ballots to make the final 10.

22. Biutiful

The voters love Inarritu. This is a major darkhorse.

23. Miral

I do not know what happened to this. I find it hard to believe that it is really that weak.

24. Conviction

I do not buy it in this category, but it is possible.

25. Get Low

Its buzz is almost dead, but since the actors are so popular, I am not completely counting it out.

So, that is all I got for this month. I decided to format it a bit different this time to actually give an idea of what is right on the edge of making the final lists. I will update this in a couple months, probably around the time that the National Board of Review, Critic’s Choice, and Golden Globe nominations are announced. I might even predict those. Who knows?

So, what are your thoughts? Did I miss anything? What would you nominate? Let us know.