2011 Golden Globe Predictions

Article by Todd Plucknett

Posted - 11/21/10

 So, we are about a month away from the announcement of the Golden Globe nominations. The HFPA is always an interesting group. They separate the categories of course, but they also are all about star power. Johnny Depp, Clint Eastwood, Leo Dicaprio, Angelina Jolie, Julia Roberts, and Tom Cruise can all attest to this. If they are in a movie, they normally show up here. They can nominate one person multiple times in the same category. They also are refreshing because they love their comedies. They are not afraid to recognize a straight-up comedy in say the directing or screenplay category. For example, It’s Complicated got a screenplay nod last year, which is the only place it showed up all awards season.

They also really like relationship dramas, such as Closer, About Schmidt, and Little Children. Each one of those got mentioned in multiple major categories. There is always one film they embrace that no one else does. Not sure which that will be this year, but I will try to find out. I will go with 6 nominations per category. They do that sometimes.

I am also going to take a stab at television predictions. This will be interesting…

Oh, and their Cecile B. DeMille award is going to the greatest guy ever Robert De Niro. Awesome.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE

 The Predicted Five

Rose Byrne – Damages

Jane Lynch – Glee

Susan Sarandon – You Don’t Know Jack

Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

Betty White – Hot in Cleveland

Predicted winner: Jane Lynch

Notes

Jane Lynch lost last year to Chloe Sevigny. I don’t see that happening this year, since Glee is more popular than ever. Maybe Susan Sarandon can provide a shocker.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE

 The Predicted Five

Neil Patrick Harris – How I Met Your Mother

Jeremy Piven – Entourage

Patrick Stewart – Hamlet

Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

David Strathairn – Temple Grandin

Predicted winner: Eric Stonestreet

Notes

This is hard. I went with Stonestreet because he is very funny in the show, and his speech at the Emmys really was really moving and genuine. Maybe I just want him to win.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE

 The Predicted Five

Claire Danes – Temple Grandin

Hope Davis – The Special Relationship

Judi  Dench – Return to Cranford

Winona Ryder – When Love is Not Enough: The Lios Wilson Story

Maggie Smith – Capturing Mary

Predicted winner: Claire Danes

Notes

This is already over. Claire Danes wins in a landslide.

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE

 The Predicted Five

Joseph Mazzello – The Pacific

Al Pacino – You Don’t Know Jack

Barry Pepper - When Love is Not Enough: The Lios Wilson Story

Dennis Quaid – The Special Relationship

Michael Sheen – The Special Relationship

Predicted winner: Al Pacino

Notes

This is Al Pacino’s award. I cannot see anyone challenging him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SERIES (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

 The Predicted Five

Toni Collette – The United States of Tara

Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

Tina Fey – 30 Rock

Laura Linney – The Big C

Lea Michele – Glee

Predicted winner: Edie Falco

Notes

Yeah, I have almost no explanation for this. Edie Falco won the Emmy, and she is a beloved TV actress. That should be enough. 30 Rock’s reign at the top could be over, and I don’t think Michele is ready to win one yet for Glee.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SERIES (DRAMA)

 The Predicted Five

Glenn Close – Damages

January Jones – Mad Men

Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife

Anna Paquin – True Blood

Kyra Sedgwick – The Closer

Predicted winner: January Jones

Notes

Margulies won last year. Paquin won the year before. Sedgewick won the Emmy. I went with Jones because Mad Men is still as popular as ever. It seems like her time.

BEST ACTOR IN A SERIES (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

The Predicted Five

Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock

Steve Carell – The Office

Thomas Jane – Hung

Matthew Morrison – Glee

Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

Predicted winner: Steve Carell

Notes

It is Carell’s last season on The Office. It seems like a good time to give him his second Globe. He won for his first season. He needs bookends.

BEST ACTOR IN A SERIES (DRAMA)

 The Predicted Five

Steve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire

Matthew Fox – Lost

Michael C. Hall – Dexter

John Hamm – Mad Men

Hugh Laurie – House

Predicted winner: Michael C. Hall

Notes

Everything seems in line for Hall to win his second in a row. They might want to give it to the last season of Lost, though. I will stick with Hall.

BEST TELEVISION MINISERIES OF MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE

 The Predicted Five

The Pacific

Return to Cranford

The Special Relationship

Temple Grandin

You Don’t Know Jack

Predicted winner: Temple Grandin

Notes

This could be close, but I think that Temple Grandin will continue its dominance. You Don’t Know Jack cold upset it, though.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

 The Predicted Five

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory

Entourage

Glee

Modern Family

Predicted winner: Modern Family

Notes

Modern Family seems to be the show that is gaining steam. It took the Emmy by surprise. It could go all the way to the Globes.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (DRAMA)

 The Predicted Five

Boardwalk Empire

Dexter

Lost

Mad Men

True Blood

Predicted winner: Boardwalk Empire

Notes

The Globes love new shows, so I am going with the upset by picking Boardwalk Empire. Mad Men can’t win every year, can it?

Ok. That’s enough of that. I am prepared for those to get shredded by the time the nominations come out. Now, on to the movie categories…

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

 The Predicted Three

How to Train Your Dragon

Megamind

Toy Story 3

Predicted winner: Toy Story 3

Notes

This is the place where the Globes can recognize a Brad Pitt film. Other than that, there isn’t anything too groundbreaking here.

BEST SCREENPLAY

 The Predicted Six

Another Year

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

Rabbit Hole

The Social Network

Predicted winner: The Social Network

Notes

The HFPA loves Mike Leigh, so consider Another Year in. The box office alone puts Inception in the running. Rabbit Hole is probably the relationship drama of the year. The Social Network is the clear frontrunner at this point.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 The Predicted Six

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Marion Cotillard – Inception

Mila Kunis – Black Swan

Blake Lively – The Town
Diane Wiest – Rabbit Hole

Predicted winner: Amy Adams

Notes

There isn’t too much to say here, other than that I think Kunis will be the surprise entry, being the comedic actress in a serious role. Amy Adams winning is just a stab in the dark. I really have no idea.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 The Predicted Six

Christian Bale – The Fighter

Bill Murray – Get Low

Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Justin Timberlake – The Social Network

Predicted winner: Geoffrey Rush

Notes

I think that this could be the start of the Christian Bale run. He needs to get nominated here to have a shot at the Oscars. The veteran card will be played by Nicholson and Murray. Geoffrey Rush still cannot be beaten at this point.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (Comedy/Musical)

 The Predicted Six

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right

Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs

Cher - Burlesque

Sally Hawkins – Made in Dagenham

Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right

Reese Witherspoon – How Do You Know

Predicted winner: Annette Bening

Notes

This will be a battle of the Kids Are All Right ladies. Hawkins just won two years ago. If the HFPA falls for Love and Other Drugs, Hathaway could be the surprise winner. She should have won two years ago, but somehow Winslet walked away with two awards. Cher will probably get nominated with her musical, since the Golden Globes cannot resist those. Bening will probably win, even though it should be Moore. Watch out for Angelina Jolie in Salt or The Tourist. She could easily sneak in there.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (Drama)

 The Predicted Six

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Lesley Manville – Another Year

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Julia Roberts – Eat Pray Love

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Predicted winner: Nicole Kidman

Notes

This will be interesting. Roberts normally gets nominated, but does not win. This will be the one time that Bening is not going to be in the running with the other powerhouse performances of the year. This could be where Lawrence starts her run. Maybe Portman takes it. I am going with Kidman, just because it has been a while since she has gotten any serious recognition. It just feels right.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (Comedy/Musical)

 The Predicted Six

Jim Carrey – I Love You Phillip Morris

Tom Cruise – Knight and Day

Johnny Depp – The Tourist

Michael Douglas – Solitary Man

Harrison Ford – Morning Glory

Paul Rudd – How Do You Know

Predicted winner: Michael Douglas

Notes

This could be the crazy Hollywood category. The only one left out is Robert Downey Jr. in Due Date. It just was not good enough, plus he won last year for Sherlock Holmes. Jim Carrey has been trying to get his film pushed for years now, and the HFPA loves him more than anyone else. If The Tourist goes comedy, then it will probably show up here. I chose Michael Douglas because he had two films this year, and this one feels more likely to get recognized. Plus it has been a long time since he has been relevant. This could reenergize his career.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (Drama)

 The Predicted Six

Javier Bardem - Biutiful

Matt Damon – Hereafter

Leonardo DiCaprio – Inception

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

Predicted winner: James Franco

Notes

This is such a packed category. I would have put DiCaprio on there for both Inception and Shutter Island, but unlike 2006, there is a ton of competition. Matt Damon should ride Clint’s film to a nomination again. Jeff Bridges is the only one I feel bad about leaving off, but the Globes are not always on the Coen Brothers bandwagon. No Country for Old Men only didn’t take any of the major awards. A Serious Man only got an Actor nod. It is just a gut feeling. James Franco should dominate this award. They love him.

BEST DIRECTOR

 The Predicted Six

Clint Eastwood – Hereafter

David Fincher – The Social Network

Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

Christopher Nolan – Inception

Martin Scorsese – Shutter Island

Peter Weir – The Way Back

Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan

Notes

They seriously cannot resist Clint. The rest of these are fairly safe picks. Christopher Nolan will probably win this, even though it really wouldn’t be deserved. His film made so much money. I don’t think it can be denied.

BEST PICTURE (Comedy/Musical)

 The Predicted Six

Burlesque

Get Low

How Do You Know

The Kids Are All Right

Love and Other Drugs

Made in Dagenham

Predicted winner: How Do You Know

Notes

I really do not know what to do here. Most of these are almost guaranteed nominations, but the winner is really hard to pick. I could see them falling for the musical. It could be the indie The Kids Are All Right. It could be the international Made in Dagenham. It could be the comedy-drama Get Low. They could break the rules and put Toy Story 3 in there. I went with How Do You Know, slightly over Love and other Drugs. It will be one of the box office films I think (last year The Hangover inexplicably won). James L. Brooks is also involved. That could be enough.

BEST PICTURE (Drama)

 The Predicted Six

Biutiful

Inception

The King’s Speech

Rabbit Hole

The Social Network

The Way Back

Predicted winner: The King’s Speech

Notes

I do not think the HFPA could fully ignore Inarritu’s films (Babel actually won this in ’06), but I am not exactly sure that it is eligible for this category. I don’t remember a foreign film ever making it into the Best Picture categories at the Globes. If it is ineligible, then count on that spot going to Another Year (which could be comedy/musical) or Black Swan. This will be the one awards show that The Social Network does not take home the gold. The King’s Speech is the obvious Golden Globe winner, having the popular British director and actors. Rabbit Hole is the relationship drama that they will likely fall in love with. The Way Back is Peter Weir, and that alone will get their attention. Inception could go all the way like Avatar did last year. I just don’t feel it, though. The King’s Speech has this sewn up.