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2011 Oscar Predictions: January
Article by
Todd Plucknett
Posted – 1/2/11
SEE OSCAR TRACKER
Most
of the categories have become somewhat solidified with the
Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Broadcast Film
Critics announcing their nominees. However, each category
has at least one spot that is still uncertain. Best
Supporting Actress is probably the best race as far as
nominations are concerned, but Best Actress has three or
four contenders that have legitimate shots at winning. This
is going to be a great Oscar season. I cannot wait until
nominations morning on January 25th.
I did my predictions note based completely on past trends
like I normally do, but on what I can actually hear being
said at 5:30am on that Tuesday morning, which made it even
more difficult to come to a decision on a few of them. Here
is what my final nominee predictions look like:
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Predicted winner: The Social Network
Explanation
The winner of
this is already decided. There is a 100% chance that Aaron
Sorkin’s masterful screenplay takes home the gold.
127 Hours,
Toy Story 3,
and
True Grit
seem to be locks. The other spot basically comes down to
Winter’s Bone
and
The Town.
I went with
Winter’s Bone
because it is just one of those rare cases where the tiny
indie film blows everyone away much like
Frozen River
did in 2008.
Others in contention
6.
The Town – It is breathing down the neck of
Winter’s Bone for
that 5th spot. I wouldn’t be shocked if it gets
in.
7.
The Ghost Writer – People are still bringing it up as a
contender. It is the type of movie that gets recognized,
just not when it was released so early in the year.
8.
Shutter Island – You can never count out the Scorsese
movie. If it gets any nomination, it might be this one.
9.
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World – It is picking up
nominations here and there. If they wanted to go the
mainstream route, this would be an inspired choice.
BEST ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Predicted winner: Inception
Explanation
This is all but
sewn up.
Inception
is still garnering several nominations, and this seems to be
the place that it will be recognized with a win.
The Kids Are All Right
and
The King’s Speech
are normal nominees in this category.
Black Swan
and
The Fighter
have Best Picture aspirations, so they are likely to be
mentioned here, but if any other movie gets in, it will be
at the expense of one of those two.
Others in contention
6.
Another Year – They love Mike Leigh, but this film’s
buzz is very quiet. Maybe with a BAFTA win or something it
can make a serious case for a nomination.
7.
Biutiful – This is the film likely to win Best Foreign
Language film, so screenplay is possible. Plus, they love
Inarritu. I am not counting it completely out.
8.
Buried – Forget
127 Hours, this is the one-man-show film of the year.
Its surprise win at the National Board of Review gives the
film life.
9.
Greenberg – It is a fabulous script by a past nominee.
It has gotten mentioned a few places, most notably the
Spirit Awards. It is still possible.
10.
Blue Valentine –
This is the ultimate long-shot. I don’t buy it, but it is
still possible if they really fall for the film. However,
judging by the SAG snubs of Gosling and Williams, that does
not seem be the case.
BEST ACTRESS
IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Juliette Lewis – Conviction
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
Predicted winner: Helena Bonham Carter
Explanation
This is so hard
to predict. I went with Lewis in a shocker, simply because
Ebert heralded it as basically the best character acting of
the year. Sadly, his opinion still has an impact on the
Oscars (see his
Juno
campaign). Plus, there always seems to be one nomination out
of nowhere (Michael Shannon and Maggie Gyllenhaal recently).
This could be that performance.
Adams, Carter, Leo, and
Mila Kunis all got the SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice
nominations. Until that point, Weaver looked like the
favorite. Honestly, any of them could win. I feel like Adams
and Leo might cancel each other out. Weaver’s film is too
obscure. Lewis’s performance is too small. Carter was
nothing too special. She could win via the Tilda Swinton
process of elimination.
Others in contention
6. Mila Kunis in
Black Swan – It
hurt to leave her off the list. All of the precursors are
there, and she deserves a nomination, but I just can’t
picture her name being said on nomination morning.
7. Julianne Moore in
The Kids Are All
Right – She could get nominated here easily if she had
been campaigned the whole time as supporting. DiCaprio got a
supporting SAG nod for
The Departed, and
Winslet won shockingly in lead for
The Reader after
being supporting the entire season. It could happen.
8. Hailee Steinfeld in
True Grit – If
she gets nominated, she will win for sure. Does this
category fraud remind anyone else of Tatum O’Neal?
9. Dianne Weist in
Rabbit Hole – If
they love the film, she could get swept in. It will need to
be like a Kidman win and Best Picture nomination-level love,
though.
BEST ACTOR IN
A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Predicted winner: Christian Bale
Explanation
Christian Bale has this won for the best
performance of the year by anyone. The other spots are
interesting. Garfield looked like a slam dunk nomination
until he missed the SAG. Hawkes is making a late run with
the SAG and Spirit nominations. Renner is coming out of
nowhere to get what is likely the only nomination for the
film. Rush secured his nomination months ago.
Others in contention
6. Mark Ruffalo in
The Kids Are All
Right – It is devastating that he is getting snubbed
again. *sigh*
7. Sam Rockwell in
Conviction – The
exact same as Ruffalo…
8. Michael Douglas in
Wall Street: Money
Never Sleeps – The Golden Globe nomination was a
pleasant surprise. The past Oscar winner for the same
character could make a last minute push.
9. Vincent Cassel in
Black Swan – If
it is unanimous love, he could get a nod for his brilliant
performance.
10. Ed Harris in
The Way Back –
You never know. Has anyone seen this movie?
11. Tommy Lee Jones in
The Company Men –
A second shocker nomination in four years for Jones?
BEST ACTRESS
IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Hilary Swank – Conviction
Predicted winner: Natalie Portman
Explanation
There are quite a
few contenders for the 5th
spot in this category. Bening is getting nominated again,
but her comeback Oscar will have to wait again. Kidman could
get into the mix for the win with a Golden Globe upset.
Lawrence is in the running, and if her film gets the Hawkes
nomination and a Director nod, she could be a real threat.
Portman should have this thing wrapped up, but they do award
their veterans sometimes. The final spot will go to Swank,
who got the SAG nomination by surprise. Plus, she is
Bening’s nemesis, so that makes it more interesting.
Others in contention
6. Julianne Moore in
The Kids Are All
Right – She is going to need her film to be absolutely
loved and get around splitting votes with herself in
supporting. She still has a decent chance, though.
7. Michelle Williams in
Blue Valentine –
The SAG snub is confusing, since it seems like an actor’s
film.
8. Lesley Manville in
Another Year –
Her film seems to be dead, but you never know with Mike
Leigh.
9. Tilda Swinton in
I Am Love – The
Ebert love fest for her could play her into contention.
10. Halle Berry in
Frankie and Alice
– Her Golden Globe Drama nomination keeps her in the
running.
11. Noomi Rapace in
The Girl With the
Dragon Tattoo – She keeps popping up here and there. If
it gets in the Foreign Language Film lineup, she could
surprise.
12. Sally Hawkins in
Made in Dagenham
– What happened to this movie?
BEST ACTOR IN
A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
Robert Duvall – Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Predicted winner: Colin Firth
Explanation
This is an
interesting group. Duvall and Firth play their veteran
cards. Franco is the Oscar host, and he is getting his first
nomination. Eisenberg seems to be the anti-Oscar contender,
yet his nomination is a certainty and a win is a
possibility. Finally, Gosling will get nominated. He is one
of the best actors of his generation, and he has only been
invited once for
Half Nelson,
despite all the precursors the year after for
Lars and the Real Girl.
Others in contention
6. Mark Wahlberg in
The Fighter – His
film is one of the ones to best, and his nomination is
semi-likely it seems.
7. Jeff Bridges in
True Grit – Do
they really need to nominate him again right after his win?
I don’t think they do.
8. Javier Bardem in
Biutiful – He
needs to overcome the bias against foreign films.
9. Paul Giamatti in
Barney’s Version
– Would this not be the coolest random nomination?
10. Ben Affleck in
The Town – If by
some miracle they love this film, then this performance is
definitely one that could make a run.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Predicted winner: David Fincher
Explanation
At this point, it seems like Fincher
cannot lose. Aronofsky’s direction is more showy, so he is
probably the most likely to upset. Nolan will need to settle
for screenplay. Russell’s film is beloved, so he could
provide the shocking upset if his film picked up a few wins
before this category. Finally, Hooper’s film is a lock, so
he is in, but a win is unrealistic.
Others in contention
6. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for
True Grit – How
many nominations can the brothers possibly get? A couple
more wouldn’t hurt.
7. Debra Granik for
Winter’s Bone –
Her film is going to need a unanimous love affair.
8. Danny Boyle for
127 Hours – It is
an impressive directing show, but his recent win might take
away from his votes.
9. Ben Affleck for
The Town – I
doubt it, but I cannot completely count it out. It was one
of the most unforgettable films of the year and had a
masterful directorial tone.
10. Mike Leigh for
Another Year –
You never know with him. He has gotten nominated without a
Best Picture nomination in the past.
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Predicted winner: The Social Network
Explanation
Last year proved
that the critical darling can actually sustain the buzz
throughout several months of being awarded.
The Social Network
should have this wrapped up.
The Fighter
is right behind, and if any film beats Fincher’s film, it
will probably be this one. Next is probably
The King’s Speech,
which looks like an Oscar movie, but it just doesn’t feel
like it. It will be difficult for it to take home the gold.
The Kids Are All Right
is the actor’s movie, and it is right there in the running
for Best Picture.
Winter’s Bone
is right in the mix as well.
Inception
is really the only box office smash in the predicted ten,
and the aura around Nolan right now is impossible to ignore.
A crazy, ridiculous upset? I hope not.
Toy Story 3
should be right up there with
The Social Network,
but it won’t be.
True Grit
is an interesting case, but as much as I think about it,
never did it cross my mind that this could win Best Picture.
127 Hours might be a bit
too small, but I would not be surprised if it snuck in for
that tenth spot.
Others in contention
11.
The Town – It had
a nice box office and superb reviews. Is that enough?
12.
Another Year – I
feel like this is redundant. Mike Leigh, blah blah blah…
13.
Rabbit Hole – The
actor’s showcase film could make it. With ten nominees,
anything is possible.
14.
Shutter Island –
I refuse to think that the film is dead.
15.
The Ghost Writer
– Ten nominees can mean anything.
16.
Conviction – This
is the closest I could come to a stupid
The Blind Side
nomination out of nowhere. However, this is a lot better
than that movie.
These are my
final picks before the nominations are announced. Those
lists of others in contention have certainly gotten trimmed
down in the last couple months. It is an exciting Oscar
season. There are actually ten films that deserve spots in
the Best Picture lineup! Maybe that idea was not such a bad
one after all. Last year was just ridiculous. I am prepared
for a chunk of these nominations to be dead wrong like they
normally are, and I know that I will be heartbroken in one
way or another, like I was with
Into the Wild.
I just hope that it is not Amy Adams, Jesse Eisenberg,
Andrew Garfield, Mila Kunis, or Darren Aronofsky, who none
of which seem to have a stranglehold on their nomination. Oh
well. I hope they can all secure their nominations. They
definitely deserve it.
So, that is all I have. What are your
thoughts? What are your picks? Look us up on Facebook and
let us know.
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