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2011 Oscar Predictions: Arts and Tech
Article by
Todd Plucknett
Posted - 1/23/11
So, I caved in and decided to take a
crack at the rest of the nominations this year. Last year, I
did not do so well on most of these categories, mainly
because the bottom ones have screwy rules and are nearly
impossible to get inside the minds of the voters.
Following the
predictions, I will tally up the nominations for each film
(combined with the big 8 categories I predicted a couple
weeks ago of course). This year is interesting because there
is not a
Benjamin Button
or
Avatar
that will get 10-15 nominations. The closest thing might be
Inception,
but then again,
The Dark Knight
only ended up with 8, and the artistic and technical
elements of that film were far superior to
Inception.
It will be intriguing to see the final counts by the
Academy. Normally, a film will not win Best Picture without
more than a handful of nominations. Here is what I came up
with:
Best Cinematography
127 Hours
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Predicted winner: True Grit
Don’t Count out: Black Swan
Explanation
This normally has
a fair share of correlation to the best films of the year.
The Best Picture winner is almost always part of this
category.
True Grit
seems like a winner here, but I really do not know for sure.
Harry Potter
got a surprising nomination last year.
Black Swan
could easily slide in at the expense of
Inception.
Watch out for
127 Hours
for the win.
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of
the Dawn Treader
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows:
Part 1
Inception
TRON: Legacy
Predicted winner: Alice in Wonderland
Don’t Count out: Black Swan
Explanation
This seems to be
a foregone conclusion that
Alice in Wonderland
will get nominated and win this award. It is typical for the
Academy to give the award to Tim Burton films. This is
normally one of the categories that will give love to the
films that do not normally get it. Last year, nominees
included
Sherlock Holmes
and
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.
This group of sci-fi and fantasy films just seems right.
Don’t overlook films like
Black Swan
and
Shutter Island,
though.
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Coco Chanel & Ivor Stravinsky
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
Robin Hood
Predicted winner: Alice in Wonderland
Don’t Count out: Barney’s Version
Explanation
This is normally a throwaway category.
The winner is always a period piece or fantasy film with
extravagant costumes. I am pretty confident in these boring
choices.
Best Sound
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Predicted winner: Inception
Don’t Count out: Black Swan
Explanation
Usually this
category is more about action films, but every once in a
while they like to nominate the best films of the year. This
year, it seems like that will be the case again.
Inception,
qualifying for both categories, will be the slam dunk win
here.
The King’s Speech
is right on the outside looking in. Don’t be surprised to
see
Iron Man 2
or
TRON: Legacy
slip in here either. We can hold out hope for
The Town
too.
Best Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
Predicted winner: The Social Network
Don’t Count out: True Grit
Explanation
This almost
always is one of the main Best Picture foreshadowers, unless
there is a film like
Collateral,
Se7en,
or
The Bourne Ultimatum
that is so obviously well-edited, yet has no Best Picture
aspirations. These choices are pretty safe.
The King’s Speech,
if it gets nominated here, could be a real Best Picture
threat to
The Social Network.
Best Sound Effects Editing
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Iron Man 2
Secretariat
Unstoppable
Predicted winner: Inception
Don’t Count out: TRON: Legacy
Explanation
This is always
designated for the loudest movies of the year.
Inception
should dominate this.
Best Visual Effects
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
TRON: Legacy
Predicted winner: Inception
Don’t Count out: Iron Man 2
Explanation
Maybe
Scott Pilgrim
is wishful thinking. I don’t know.
Inception
can’t lose this. I would love to see a surprise
Hereafter
mention.
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
Jonah Hex
Predicted winner: Alice in Wonderland
Don’t Count out: The Wolfman
Explanation
This category
always has a stupid nomination, and this year, that will be
Jonah Hex.
Let’s just hope
The Fighter
miraculously wins this.
Best Original Song
“If I Rise” – 127 Hours
“Never
Say Never” – The Karate Kid
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” –
Burlesque
“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
“Shine” – Waiting for Superman
Predicted winner: “You Haven’t Seen the
Last of Me” – Burlesque
Don’t Count out: “Coming Home” – Country
Strong
Explanation
Yeah, I don’t
even think I have any comments on this. This category is
screwed up. I mean, who really heard of
Paris 36
last year?
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
The King’s Speech
Toy Story 3
Predicted winner: The King’s Speech
Don’t Count out: The Social Network
Explanation
This is hard to
predict. I didn’t even realize
The Hurt Locker
had a score, and it was nominated (same thing with
Michael Clayton
in ‘07). Don’t be surprised if
The Social Network
somehow gets in there. The winner is really just a tossup.
They will want to give
The King’s Speech
its share of wins, and this one just seems right.
Best Documentary Feature
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Predicted winner: Inside Job
Don’t Count out: Client 9: The Rise and
Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Explanation
This will
probably be 100% wrong. They never nominate the best ones
due to ridiculous rules. There are always ones that are
mostly unknown, and my
Gasland
mention is representative of that truth. If
Exit Through the Gift Shop
gets in and wins, who accepts for Banksy?! I want there to
be that dilemma! Come on Academy! Be cool!
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Predicted winner: Toy Story 3
Don’t Count out: Idiots and Angels
Explanation
I am pretty
confident in those three, but they always throw a wrench in
there somewhere. I mean,
The Secret of Kells?
I don’t get it.
Idiots and Angels
is about as random as it gets.
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
The Concert
In a Better World
Of Gods and Men
White Material
Predicted winner: In a Better World
Don’t Count out: The Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo
Explanation
There is not a
lot to say here. They suck at making rules for this
category. A random movie no one has ever heard of and never
really got released always wins. That’s what I was going for
here. Maybe
Dragon Tattoo
can make a shocking cool entry into this black hole of a
category that no one ever cares about.
Predicted nominations count
Inception: 9 noms / 4 wins
The King’s Speech: 9 noms / 3 wins
The Social Network: 8 noms / 4 wins
The Fighter: 8 noms / 1 win
127 Hours: 7 noms
Black Swan: 6 noms / 1 win
Toy Story 3: 6 noms / 1 win
Alice in Wonderland: 4 noms / 3 wins
True Grit: 4 noms / 1 win
Winter’s Bone: 4 noms
How to Train Your Dragon: 3 noms
The Kids Are All Right: 3 noms
Conviction: 2 noms
TRON: Legacy: 2 noms
Waiting for Superman: 2 noms
Burlesque: 1 nom / 1 win
In a Better World: 1 nom / 1 win
Inside Job: 1 nom / 1 win
Animal Kingdom: 1 nom
Biutiful: 1 nom
Blue Valentine: 1 nom
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of
the Dawn Treader: 1 nom
Coco Chanel & Ivor Stravinsky: 1 nom
The Concert: 1 nom
Gasland: 1 nom
Get Low: 1 nom
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows:
Part 1: 1 nom
The Illusionist: 1 nom
Iron Man 2: 1 nom
Jonah Hex: 1 nom
The Karate Kid: 1 nom
Of Gods and Men: 1 nom
Rabbit Hole: 1 nom
Restrepo: 1 nom
Robin Hood: 1 nom
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World: 1 nom
Secretariat: 1 nom
Shutter Island: 1 nom
The Tillman Story: 1 nom
The Town: 1 nom
Unstoppable:
1 nom
White Material:
1 nom
So, can you see
that? There isn’t anything too shocking here. Normally, the
Best Picture winner gets a handful of wins, except in the
case of
The Departed
and
Crash.
This is a bit like 2005 actually, in that
The King’s Speech
and
The Social Network
will get a few wins, along with a couple arts and
techs-driven films with
Inception
and
Alice in Wonderland.
Wins for films outside of these four films will be scarce.
127 Hours
will get the most nods without a win, unless it takes Best
Editing, which is very possible. I feel like I spread the
wealth a bit too much, though. There are a ton of films with
just one nomination. Oh well. These are probably mostly
wrong anyway. I can’t wait until nominations morning on
January 25th
to find out how I did.
So, what do you think? Let us know on
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