Reactions to the Nominations

Article by Todd Plucknett

Posted - 2/14/11

Well, this was an interesting set of nominees. There were a few bad snubs, a few “Oh, I should have seen that coming” nominations, and of course a bunch of well-deserved awesome nominations. And Terry, watch Winter’s Bone before you start discrediting its Oscar merit. Maybe I was the only one who thought four nominations were coming its way, but you were completely writing it off. Anyway, I will go category by category and give some thoughts on the lineups. Here is what I think:

Best Picture
127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Predicted: 10 for 10

Reactions

Well, I know that this is one of the only categories that I am going to get 100% right. The only one really in question was Winter’s Bone vs. The Town, but the more important film got in. The interesting question now is which of these would have made the lineup if only five films were nominated. Obviously there are the frontrunners The Social Network, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, and The Fighter, then…what? Lyons seemed to think it would be Toy Story 3. Inception seemed like the choice, but without the Director nomination, who knows? True Grit could be the film, but I just find that sort of odd. My guess would be the Kids Are All Right. I think that this is proof that the ten nominee format actually can work. Well done, Academy. Seriously. I have not forgiven you for The Blind Side yet, but this lineup is really awesome. I mean, when the worst films in the list (The King’s Speech and Inception) are high-end three star films, you know the list is good. I approve.

Preliminary prediction: The Social Network

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – True Grit

David Fincher – The Social Network

Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

David O. Russell – The Fighter

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

Well, this is a surprise. What does Christopher Nolan need to do to get a Directing nomination? He did not necessarily deserve it for Inception, but it was going to make up for his snubs for Memento and The Dark Knight. Anyway, the Coens got in instead, and they are awesome. This is what, 9 nominations in 4 years?  That has to be some sort of a record.

Preliminary Prediction: David Fincher

Best Actor

Javier Bardem – Biutiful

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions

I like that James Franco is finally an Oscar nominee. I should have predicted Javier Bardem. I knew it. There is always one who misses all the precursors that gets in. It was him. Good for him. They really cannot resist Inarritu. I had Robert Duvall and Ryan Gosling in for Jeff Bridges and Bardem. Bridges had a nice follow-up to his Oscar, but he really did not deserve this nomination. Oh well.

Preliminary Prediction: Colin Firth

Best Actress

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

Well, this is about what I expected. I had the SAG-nominated Hilary Swank in for Michelle Williams, but I really just suspected that only one of the people from that film would get in. Gosling got the snub, so it makes sense that Williams would get in. Other than that, I am stoked for Jennifer Lawrence.

Preliminary Prediction: Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter

John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner – The Town

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

I had Andrew Garfield in for Mark Ruffalo. I am so happy for Ruffalo, but it is devastating for Garfield. The Social Network kinda got shafted in a couple categories. Maybe it is not as strong of a Best Picture lock as we thought. The rest was pretty predictable for this category. John Hawkes is a cool mention. Jeremy Renner becomes one of only three actors this year (Bridges and Firth being the others) who have back-to-back nominations.

Preliminary Prediction: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

I had Juliette Lewis in for Hailee Steinfeld. Good for her, though. She avoided a category confusion snub unlike many others could not do in the past. She should be a slam dunk win for this category, even though if I were to choose, it would be Amy Adams. That’s 3 nominations in 6 years for her. She has to win one at some point.

Preliminary Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld

Original Screenplay

Another Year

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

Ok. Mike Leigh makes a movie, and he is in for screenplay. I cannot believe that I didn’t predict that. It was the same exact situation as Happy-Go-Lucky. Anyway, the Black Swan snub is discouraging. The others were stone-cold locks. No real surprises here.

Preliminary Prediction: The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions

I got this completely right. I knew that they did not want Ben Affleck in there. It is pretty sad, considering that’s 2 of the best screenplays in the last 4 years that he has written. Neither of them got nominated. Maybe his third film will fit their fancy.

Preliminary Prediction: The Social Network

Cinematography

Black Swan

Inception

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

True Grit

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

Well, I had 127 Hours in for Black Swan. It was really a case when 6 films were vying for 5 spots. 127 Hours had some fascinating photography, though. Its snub is a little weird. I thought it was the frontrunner.

Preliminary Prediction: True Grit

Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part 1

Inception

The King’s Speech

True Grit

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions

Now we are getting into the ones I suck at predicting. I had the Narnia movie and Tron: Legacy in for The King’s Speech and True Grit. It seems a little foolish now, though.

Preliminary Prediction: Inception

Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland

I Am Love
The King’s Speech

The Tempest

True Grit

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions

Yep. This is stupid. Black Swan getting snubbed is ridiculous. It really got shafted in several categories. I had Coco Chanel & Ivor Stravinsky, Black Swan, and Robin Hood in for I Am Love, The Tempest, and True Grit. Well, True Grit is seriously stronger than we thought. Cool, I guess.

Preliminary Prediction: Alice in Wonderland

Sound Mixing

Inception

The King’s Speech

Salt

The Social Network

True Grit

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions

I had Toy Story 3 and Shutter Island in for Salt and The King’s Speech. I don’t know what to think of here. Salt is a cool mention. It is not unlike Wanted two years ago. Cool.

Preliminary Prediction: Inception

Editing

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions

I had Inception in for The King’s Speech. I guess that is a real contender for Best Picture now that it got this key mention. The others are cool, well-deserved nominations. I cannot argue too much.

Preliminary Prediction: The Social Network

Sound Editing

Inception

Toy Story 3

TRON: Legacy

True Grit

Unstoppable

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions

I had Iron Man 2, How to Train Your Dragon, and Secretariat in for TRON, True Grit, and Toy Story 3. I do not know too much about the category, so I guess I cannot comment too much. True Grit is really showing up everywhere.

Preliminary Prediction: Inception

Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part 1

Hereafter

Inception

Iron Man 2

Predicted: 1 for 3 (5)

Reactions

I only predicted 3, and 2 of them showed up on the list of 5. Wow…well done, self. There were only 7 films on the shortlist haha. Anyway, I had Scott Pilgrim (completely shut out…ugh) and TRON in for all but Inception. It is a weird list. Hereafter! They never have 5 nominees in this category. I like it.

Preliminary Prediction: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup

Barney’s Version

The Way Back

The Wolfman

Predicted: 0 for 3

Reactions

Nice. I got shut out in a category. I had Alice in Wonderland, Jonah Hex, and The Fighter. Cool for Barney’s Version. The Wolfman? Eh…ok. Yeah, this whole category is definitely the “What the Hell!?” nomination that we normally expect from the acting categories.

Preliminary Prediction: Barney’s Version

Song

“If I Rise” – 127 Hours

“Coming Home” – Country Strong

“I See the Light” – Tangled

“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3

Predicted: 2 for 4 (5)

Reactions

I predicted 5, and I had the songs from Karate Kid, Burlesque, and Waiting for Superman in for Country Strong and Tangled. This category is always messed up. There is not much to say. A.R. Rahman is going to get his third Oscar in 3 years.

Preliminary Prediction: “If I Rise” – 127 Hours

Score

127 Hours

How to Train Your Dragon

Inception

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions

I had Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland in for Inception and The Social Network. I thought Inception was ineligible…

Preliminary Prediction: The Social Network

Documentary

Exit Through the Gift Shop

GasLand

Inside Job

Restrepo

Waste Land

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions

I had Tillman Story and Waiting for Superman in for Exit Through the Gift Shop and Waste Land. BANKSY!!! I want him at the ceremony! Yes!

Preliminary Prediction: Inside Job

Foreign Language Film

Biutiful

Dogtooth

In a Better World

Incendies

Outside the Law

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reaction

 Yeah, I suck at this category. I had The Concert, Of Gods and Men, and White Material in for Dogtooth, Incendies, and Outside the Law. Cool for Inarritu.

Preliminary Prediction: Incendies

Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

Predicted: 3 for 3

Reactions

Nailed it. No real doubt here.

Preliminary Prediction: Toy Story 3

Overall predictions: 70/103 (67.96%). Without the last 5 categories: 57/81 (70.37%). On the Big 8 categories: 38/45 (84.44%). Last year my numbers were much higher. This was a strange year, though, so I am not complaining.

Top 10 coolest first-time nominees

1. Darren Aronofsky

2. Mark Ruffalo

3. Banksy

4. Jesse Eisenberg

5. Jennifer Lawrence

6. Aaron Sorkin

7. James Franco

8. Christian Bale

9. Tom Hooper

10. David O. Russell

Top 10 worst snubs

1. Black Swan for Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction, and Best Makeup

2. Andrew Garfield for Best Supporting Actor

3. Mila Kunis for Best Supporting Actress

4. 127 Hours for Best Cinematography

5. Black Swan for Best Original Screenplay

6. Christopher Nolan for Best Director

7. Mark Wahlberg for Best Actor

8. Shutter Island for Best Sound Mixing (and all other categories)

9. The Town for Best Adapted Screenplay

10. Hailee Steinfeld for Best Actress

So, what do we know now? Ebert thinks True Grit is going to win Best Picture, which is somewhat possible considering its love in every category. Black Swan is not as strong of a contender as we thought, after its double-digit nominations at the Critics Choice and BAFTAs, it only gets 5 Oscar nods. Inception is no Best Picture threat. The Social Network is in the exact same position as The Departed was. It had an inferior amount of nominations, but all of the key ones were there. It is probably not going to fall to The King’s Speech, even though the Producers Guild loss is discouraging. They almost always go another route. I really think that The Fighter is its biggest threat.

I really like that Hereafter got nominated for Visual Effects. That tidal wave scene was as good of an effect as I have ever seen. Hailee Steinfeld getting nominated is cool, even though it was the wrong category. And obviously…Exit Through the Gift Shop! That is the coolest thing ever. It was an amazing year for documentaries, and that was definitely worthy of its nomination. What if Banksy wins?! Ah, I cannot wait.

Well, stay tuned for the third annual Oscar challenge. It is going to be an interesting year, even though the main categories are pretty safely locked in with their winners. What did you think of the nominees? Look us up on Facebook.