My Final Oscar Predictions

Or

The Worst Possible Scenario

Or

We’re In For a Long Offseason, Bub

Article by Zach Saltz - 1/20/09

I’ve learned, in this horrendously unpredictable era of the Giants and Cardinals making it to back-to-back Super Bowls and Proposition Eight failing miserably in California, that you can never really rely on anything anymore except for the scenario you most wish to avoid – in other words, the worst possible situation.  Well, being the pessimist (read: realist) that I am, I’ve decided to go with all of the picks that would make me most cringe (realistic picks, that is; I don’t really foresee the Academy giving Vantage Point a Best Picture nomination).  Now as we all know, I kind of hated Slumdog Millionaire, so expect that to be a big success when the nominations are announced this Thursday (and hence, their frequent appearance on this list).  Anything deviating from the following predictions will be a pleasant surprise in my book, and seeing the Steelers make the Super Bowl again makes me yearn for anything that’s pleasant, even if it’s an acceptance speech by Mickey Rourke.

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall E

One of the most ordinary, pedestrian collection of Best Picture nominees in recent memory.  Only one on my personal end of the year Top Ten (Benjamin Button) and even that was really only for the final hour of the picture.  Slumdog seems to be riding a bandwagon that’s unstoppable at the moment, and appears destined to enter the ranks of Gladiator, Chicago, and The Return of the King as films people for some reason thought were good enough to take home the top prize.  Why the Academy seems fervent in its refusal to honor the truly daring and moving motion pictures out there (Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married, and The Fall) is beyond me.

Best Director

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Boyle’s a lock if Slumdog is as hot a month from now as it is today.  See note above.

Best Actor

Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Didn’t watch the Golden Globes, but heard Rourke’s speech was a riot.  Again, assuming the very worst here (snubs for the brilliant DiCaprio, Pitt, and Eastwood), but not a terribly horrible group of faces.  If Penn hadn’t won in ’03 (when Bill Murray should have), than his title role would be the clear pick; but he did, and it’s not and the night should belong to yet another washed-up-B-list-actor-somehow-turned-respectable-thespian (-in-spandex).  Can’t wait to hear Marion Cotillard attempt to pronounce the last name “Rourke” . . . should come out something like “Hook.”

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Finally, the only category without any foreseeable problems (if they nominate the chick from Slumdog, I’ll kill ‘em).  All five are pretty fantastic (haven’t seen I’ve Loved You but Thomas’ French sounds pretty impeccable), but Winslet’s turn has finally come to take home the prize.  She’s very good in Revolutionary Road, although the film overall should be recognized far more, but I’d still personally give the award to Hathaway, whose role is fearless and uncompromising, but not in the same shitty “I-am-a-fantastic-looking-actress-playing-a-drug-addicted-whore-with-lots-of-slutty-makeup” was as everyone else.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Ralph Fiennes, The Reader

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Always a weird category, but not this year: It’s a posthumous runaway for Ledger, who was good, but wildly over-the-top in a juicy role that proved to be an actor’s paradise.  Bill Irwin’s shining performance in Rachel Getting Married has been too ignored, and Brad Pitt’s comic genius (yes, read that again: Brad Pitt’s comic genius) in Burn After Reading needs to be recognized somewhere, even if it’s about the goofiest role you’ll ever see.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Haven’t seen Vicky, but needless to say, all indicators seem to be pointing toward Cruz in yet another exceptionally weak category.  Except this time, there aren’t any real stunning performances in this area that have been neglected, save Tilda Swinton’s compelling turn midway through Benjamin Button.  Tough to think, however, that Doubt will garner four acting nominations without a single statuette, so don’t count out the chances of Adams or especially Davis.

Original Screenplay

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Wall E

The Wrestler

Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

What is Slumdog’s script adapted from?  It seems borrowed from every hollow Rocky sequel and Cliffs Notes synopsis of a Dickens masterpiece.  Anyway, now that my semi-obligatory slam on Slumdog is complete, I’ll say that I don’t give a shit about these categories (hehe, nothing’s really changed since my first post) but I will give the win to Rachel Getting Married for original screenplay, since I need to be selfish in at least one category (and can you really see the Academy handing the award to an animated film with about two lines of dialogue spoken in unintelligible robot-speak?)