2010 NFL Preview

Article by Zach Saltz

Posted - 8/19/10

The 2010 NFL season commences Thursday, September 9, with a rematch of the NFC Championship game, Saints vs. Vikings.  The Thursday kick-off game has traditionally been low-scoring and snooze-tastic, and you’d have to be a real idiot not to pick the Saints, Favre or no Favre.  Never bet against a reigning Super Bowl champion in its opener; the last time one such team lost in its first game of the season was the Brian Griese-led 1999 Denver Broncos.  Hell, even Charlie Batch won the 2006 opener for the Steelers.

Speaking of Pittsburgh and their backups, the Three Year Cycle theory with the Steelers must be considered for 2010.  For those of you not familiar with this nearly flawless theory, it maintains that every three years Pittsburgh boasts a team that is better than everyone realizes but loses in the playoffs (2007, 2004, and 2001), a lousy team that misses the playoffs (2009, 2006, and 2003) and a Super Bowl winning team that isn’t actually all that good (2008, 2005, and 2002 – OK, they didn’t technically win the Super Bowl in 2002, but if Tommy Maddox had beaten the Titans in Round Two, watch out).  If that theory holds in 2010, we should expect a double-digit win tally with a quick playoff exit.

But I say that this Cycle comes to an end in 2010.  After all, we are beginning a new decade, right?  Time to forget about the two worst years of the 2000s (2005 and 2008) when the Steelers “won” Super Bowls.  In fact, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Pittsburgh finished last in the AFC North – Cincinnati is defending the division title, Baltimore is my Super Bowl pick out of the AFC, and Cleveland looked brilliant in its final four games of last year.

Really, the North division provides the only true drama in the AFC because the other three divisions will be won by teams that haven’t been displaced from the top in six years – the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers.  For the Patriots and especially the Chargers, it’s a matter of the schedule.  In its first ten games, San Diego plays a whopping two playoff teams from 2009 – the Cardinals and the Patriots – and both are home games.  Their only other noteworthy games are at Indy (where they haven’t lost in six years) and at Cincinnati (a December game, the month in which Philip Rivers has never lost a game).  This team could be led by Dan Orlovsky and still win the division.  In fact, even predicting four losses is hard for me to do.  But then I remember that San Diego annually has an over/under of 2.5 stupid losses in the first eight weeks of the season (my money this year is on Seattle and Houston).  And they couldn’t win a playoff game to save their lives.

Then there’s the Patriots.  Tom Brady didn’t throw 50 touchdowns last year, but statistically, he was almost as magnificent as 2007 because he consistently played against quality pass defenses (in 2009, the Pats played the top three pass defenses – New York, Buffalo, and Denver – a total of five games, and Brady went 3-2).  With a healthy Welker back in the lineup and Moss and Brady in the last years of their contracts, I imagine them  excelling down the stretch, and their toughest non-division opponents (Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota Indianapolis, Green Bay) are all home games (remember that the Pats went 8-0 at  Foxboro last year).

So what about the Pats’ AFC East rival everyone is talking about?  Sorry Buffalo fans, I’m talking about the New York J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.  Somehow, I don’t see it happening.  The Revis holdout is bad news, and at this point in his career, LT is dead weight.  The underlying issue though: Just as Major League Baseball has again swung to being a pitcher’s sport, the NFL is an offensive game, and I don’t think Mark Sanchez can be a blue-chip quarterback.  I didn’t think he was talented at USC, and everyone seems to forget that prior to the Jets’ playoff run last year (spearheaded by their defense, not their offense), Sanchez sucked.  The guy completed 50 percent of his passes and had a quarterback rating of 63.  Even if he suddenly pulls a Rex Grossman, I would never trust him.

I do like the Dolphins, however.  Don’t ask me why, but I do.  Henne is a playmaker, Ginn is exceptional, Marshall is a great addition, and they’re the only team that does the Wildcat effectively.  Plus, their final three home games in December are against Cleveland, Buffalo, and Detroit.  They’re flying under the radar, which is nice, and always seem to take one from the Pats each year.  Pencil them in as a wildcard team.

The Colts will win the AFC South again, but by default.  They’re like the token Harvey Weinstein Best Picture nominee.  How last season’s team won 14 games is mind-boggling, as was why so many people thought they would win the Super Bowl.  Actually, it’s not mind-boggling – it’s because you simply can’t bet against Peyton Manning.  Indianapolis won seven games last year by four points or less.  The 2008 and 2009 Colts squads are the only two teams to rush for fewer than 1,300 yards in a season and have a winning record (let alone, win 23 games in a row).  You think Mark Sanchez could do that?  They play a total five games in prime time this season, including Manning Bowl II.

I like Houston as the other wildcard.  Kind of an AFC version of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals – bad history, prolific passing offense, no real defense, everyone’s favorite “sleeper” pick the last five years.  They won’t beat the Colts, but with Slaton back healthy and a suddenly spry defense, with two rookies of the year (Cushing and Ryans) and a number one pick finally starting to prove himself (Mario Williams), this team would be a solid contender in any other division than the AFC South.  I like them for the exact reason I don’t like the Jets – their passing game makes them a threat to anyone.

But the team I like most in the AFC is Baltimore.  Yes, lots of people are picking them, and no, it wouldn’t surprise me if they lose to the eventual AFC Champ in the playoffs (exactly what they’ve done in their last three playoff appearances).  They have a rough schedule (their first four away games are all against playoff teams).  But under Project Flacco, the offense has been getting better with each season, and the addition of Anquan Boldin could produce (gulp) a 4,000-yard passing season for the Ravens.  Ray Rice is explosive, although it should be noted that the last Baltimore Raven to lead the team in rushing for consecutive years was Jamal Lewis in ’05-’06.  Last year’s team kept losing games they should have won, and could have easily been a 12-win team with a made field goal or one incomplete pass.  This year’s team should excel on all fronts, but it’s not as though we didn’t hear the same kind of rhetoric last year at this time.

Division Champions

New England 11-5

Baltimore 12-4

Indianapolis 11-5

San Diego 12-4

Wild Card Teams

Miami 10-6

Houston 9-7

Round One

Houston over Indianapolis

New England over Miami

Round Two

Baltimore over Houston

New England over San Diego

AFC Championship

Baltimore over New England

The NFC is the conference I like a little less, and boasts teams I dislike for the most part (Dallas and Minnesota being the biggest culprits).  I think neither team will have the same success they had in 2009.  As usual, Dallas has as many nationally-televised games than LeBron James ESPN specials (a ridiculous six games), but people forget that the “prolific” Tony Romo/Miles Austin offense failed to score more than 24 points in a single game after November 1, and could only manage a field goal in their playoff humiliation in Minnesota.  Their “all-star” defense only picked off 11 passes all season (and forced only 21 turnovers, fifth worst in the league and fewer than Detroit and Seattle).  They play in arguably in toughest division in football, and cannot beat up on the Redskins any longer.  I think we’re ripe for yet another “this team deserves better than Wade Phillips” season.

As for the Vikings, Favre playing or not playing makes an obvious difference.  But not as big of one as most people would forecast.  Last season’s success was a bit of a fluke – Minnesota played only beat one quality opponent on the road (Green Bay, of course) and didn’t win an away game after November 1.  Their corners are average at best, and though Adrian Peterson had 18 touchdowns last season, he only had three 100-yard rushing games.  They do have a nice string of three straight manageable home games in December, but like the other purple-colored NFL team, Baltimore, their first four away games are against playoff teams.  If Favre is still recovering from his ankle injury, early victories may be hard to come by.

My two favorite teams in the NFC for 2010 are Green Bay and New Orleans.  Lots of people like the Packers, and it’s easy to see why: Exceptional quarterback, tough, unique defense, and excellent ball-handling.  I always tell people Rodgers reminds me of a young Steve Young, both athletically and with all the personnel issues he’s gone through.  He gets sacked a ton, but rarely turns the ball over.  The only issue with the Packers (besides the ghost of Favre): Close games.  They simply are not clutch.  In 2008, it bordered on the ridiculous, with seven losses coming by four points or fewer.  They improved in 2009, but still faltered in their epic playoff game in Arizona.  These are the same struggles Young, Favre, and Peyton Manning experienced early in their careers, and I’m convinced Rodgers can move beyond them.

I like the Saints, although no team has ever won consecutive NFC South titles (and the last NFC team to win back-to-back Super Bowls was the ’92-’93 Cowboys).  Virtually their entire team comes back intact, their impossible to beat at home, and any belief that the franchise is “cursed” has been thankfully put to rest.  Their schedule isn’t too rough – only two playoff teams in the first 10 weeks, and home matchups with Cleveland, Seattle, and St. Louis.  Their Thanksgiving Day game at Dallas could be the first watchable Thanksgiving game in decades.  Carolina has their strong running game, but Matt Moore still needs to develop, and I question whether Atlanta is as much a contender as everyone else seems to annually believe.

As for the rest of the conference?  Something is telling me to pick the Giants in the NFC East.  They’re the type of team that responds well to doubt – no one thought they could win the division in ’05, no one thought they could win the Super Bowl in ’07, and lots of people think they’re washed-up after witnessing the disaster of their last four games in ’09. Manning statistically had his best season last year, and they’re just enough under-the-radar to forget about.  I like the Redskins, too, and believe they’re a team just nutty enough to make the headlines every week with team antics and wins.  The Kolb-era Eagles have 8-8 written all over them.

And then there’s the NFC West, which is so weak, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in eight years is expected to win it.  Am I on the 49ers bandwagon?  I was in ’06 and ’07, and they disappointed me.  Their only wins against a team with a winning record last season were their two victories over Arizona (a team they’ve owned over the past few seasons).  Seattle and St. Louis are out of the question, which leaves Arizona . . . a team that has been dominated by San Francisco.  So yes, I like the 49ers.  And if that sounds familiar, so is my claim that Seattle will suck.

That’s all for my NFL predictions.  Here are a few other random thoughts: TO won’t eclipse 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns receiving . . . Chris Johnson won’t be as explosive as his historic 2009 campaign, but will still manage 1,500 yards rushing . . . Kansas City and Cleveland will improve by 3-4 games and be legitimate threats in their division, if not for a little while . . . Atlanta, Denver, and Jacksonville will win 3-4 fewer games than they did last year . . . Rodgers will be MVP . . . Over/under on bonehead remarks made by Chris Collinsworth per game: 7.5.

Division Champions

New York 11-5

Green Bay 13-3

New Orleans 13-3

San Francisco 10-6

Wild Card

Washington 10-6

Minnesota 9-7

Round One

Minnesota over New York

Washington over San Francisco

Round Two

Green Bay over Washington

New Orleans over Minnesota

NFC Championship

Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl XLV

Baltimore over Green Bay