2010 NFL Playoff Predictions – Divisional Round

Article by Zach Saltz

Posted - 1/14/11

I’m seriously considering not watching this weekend’s playoff action.  I’m on a fairly horrible sports stumble since June; the Celtics blow it in Game Seven, my fantasy football team loses when Philadelphia lays an inexplicable stinker against Minnesota, and the Ducks lose the national championship on a crummy call.  Now the Seahawks are hot, the Ravens haven’t beaten Ben Roethlisburger since 2006, and I’m on suicide watch.  At least I can say I had faith in the Seahawks.  Ugh.  Last week, I wrote about the games in the chronological order they were being played; this week, I’ll introduce each game in the order of ways they infuriate me, with the most infuriating right at the top:

Seattle vs. Chicago, 1:00pm E.T. Sunday Fox.
Level of infuriation: 10

Before I commence my rant on the ridiculous NFL home seeding for the playoffs, let’s make one thing very clear: As much as I personally hate Seattle, they absolutely deserved to win the wild-card game last week against the Saints.  No suspicious umpire calls, no unlucky breaks or injuries for the Saints, except for their runningbacks (not a huge loss for a team that couldn’t run the ball all season anyway.)  The Marshawn Lynch run, however personally disgusting it was to watch (as well as the innumerable replays of it afterward) was a legitimately great play.  The fault was mostly in the Saints’ gameplan; they couldn’t convert easy third-and-fourth-and-shorts, were happy to let the Seahawks start with the ball on their own forty after each kickoff (does anyone really believe Leon Washington is that good?), and their corners played flat-out horrible.

So let’s not mistake the Seahawks’ performance last weekend for great playoff football.  The Seahawks victory only further crystallizes an important criticism of the current NFL playoff seeding system.  The home factor could not have been underscored more in that game for Seattle; no WAY do the Saints lose that game in New Orleans, or even win by less than three touchdowns.  No way does Hasselback throw for four touchdowns after spending the last four years on the Lost island, and no way does Lynch make that run.  And yet because of the stupendously stupid playoff seeding system, where the division winner gets homefield regardless of if their regular season record was worse than the best wild-card team, we get the 7-9 Seahawks (oh, pardon me, 8-9 Seahawks) getting a home game instead of a team that actually deserved it – and potentially hosting another playoff game if they and the Packers each emerge victorious this weekend (SPOILER: This is precisely what I’m predicting).  Is there anyone who actually believes Seattle warrants a home game over the Packers? 

So then, by that logic, I shouldn’t get too flustered because (breathing slower, calming down) the Seahawks have to go on the road this week and play the Bears in Chicago.  No way that I, an avowed Seahawk hater and someone who actually got stomach pains watching their pathetic team be the unfair benefactors of horrible playoff seeding last week, would honestly believe Seattle has a chance of winning a playoff game on the road.

Well think again.  You heard it right here: There is no way Seattle is losing this weekend (pulling out my hair in agony; combined with the Ducks defeat, I’m going bald fast).

Like last week’s game, I’m not picking the Sea Chickens because I believe they’re actually talented.  I’m predicting them because their opponent is even worse (it’s like the ’94 Oscars, when Jessica Lange won Best Actress for Blue Sky; that’s right, just imagine how bad her fellow nominees must have been.)  It’s not just that the Bears already lost to the Seahawks in Chicago earlier this season.  It’s that they’re an unpredictable, surprisingly soft team that has LETDOWN written all over them.  First off, Mike Martz is one of their coaches.  Secondly, Jay Cutler is their quarterback, and as far as I know, Jay Cutler has never won any type of meaningful post-season game of any sort, whether in football, beach volleyball, or a mouthing-off contest against Philip Rivers.  Thirdly, they’ve had an easy schedule most of the year, and their home record is suspect.  In Chicago, they were blown out by the Patriots (not unforgivable, but at home?) and lost to Seattle and Washington (pretty unforgivable in both instances).  They should have lost to the Lions Week One, were it not for the infamous Calvin Johnson Call, and they gave up 34 points to the Jets.  Most importantly, they are the Bears, and as they proved in 2001 and 2005 (and nearly in 2006, when they had to take – you guessed it – the Seahawks to overtime to win), they cannot be relied on when it counts.  Like the Seahawks, they finished in the bottom ten in both passing and rushing yards, and although he protected the ball slightly better than in 2009, Cutler still threw 16 interceptions and fumbled the ball 10 times.  A few weeks ago, I really liked the Bears because it seemed like, on any given day, they could beat anyone; then I suddenly woke up, stopped drinking the kool-aid, and realized that on any given day, they could equally lose to anybody.

The thing I hate about this is that, besides the fact the other six playoff teams are all legitimate contenders and make this matchup look like a farce, if the Seahawks do beat the Bears and host the NFC Championship game, people will look back at this team and remember them as the unheralded surprise team that really had it in them all season, and pulled it together when it counted.  People will say, “Oh, it’s like the 2008 Cardinals miracle playoff run all over again!”  Not true.   Seattle was a crummy team all year long, with the third-worst SRS in the league, and were simply lucky enough to host a team that mistook Leon Washington for Anton Chigurh, and then play the Chicago Bears.  I guess you also cannot entirely root out the divine factor, since Clipboard Jesus is currently on their bench.  They stunk, they still stink, and they are doing a fabulous job of making the lockout look more bearable.  Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Seattle Seahawks!

Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 Divisional Round – Arizona 33, Carolina . . . no, wait a second.  I absolutely refuse to compare this team to the 2008 Cardinals (although a Jay Cutler-Jake Delhomme comparison is a harder lock than a Judi Dench Best Supporting Actress nomination).  Let’s just go with either of the abysmal Chicago home playoff games from the last decade: Philadelphia 33, Chicago 19 (2001 Divisional Round), Carolina 29, Chicago 21 (2005 Divisional Round).

Prediction: Seattle 33, Chicago 24.

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, 4:30 E.T. Saturday CBS
Level of infuriation: 7

Even if I didn’t hate the Steelers as much as I do, this game would still get at least a five because of how sick I’m getting of hearing how these teams hate each other.  You know, like most teams in the NFL, they like each other, they hang out and shake hands after games and stuff.  But the Ravens and the Steelers?  They HATE each other!

OK, enough of this, people!  First of all, as far as I can tell, they have virtually the same game plan, with a big, lanky quarterback, a suspect offensive line, and a brutal, physical defense.  They have kickers that like to make things interesting, and (as has been mercilessly repeated already), their games are always close.  Does that mean they hate each other?  People have even been calling this a “long and storied rivalry.”  Right, since, from like 1996.  Plus, why would the Steelers hate the Ravens?  They’ve won two Super Bowls in the last five years, while the Ravens boast borderline-decent teams that make the playoffs every year, and go 1-1.

Anyway, I’m picking the Steelers in this game, and it’s not just because I’m feeling pessimistic about sports and negative about life in general lately.  Baltimore is going to be overconfident after beating a truly terrible Chiefs team (a team that beat “America’s Darling” Seahawks 42-24, but never mind.)  If they go into the game passing, a healthy Troy Polamalu will intercept Joe Flacco.   If they try to run, the powerful defensive line will make easy pickings of Ray Rice.  The Ravens won in Pittsburgh in September because of a fluky last second touchdown pass from Flacco to Houshmandzadeh, and that game was without Ben Roethlisburger. 

That’s my other point of infuriation about this game: People like the Ravens because, historically, they’ve appeared to have played the Steelers close over the last several seasons.   Since 2004, the Steelers hold a slight advantage in the series between the two, 8 wins to 7.  But if we pull a Lester Burnham and look closer, those numbers are deceptive: Five of those wins came in games Roethlisburger did not start, and the other two wins came during his “motorcycle-burst appendix” 2006 campaign.  Quite simply, the Ravens have never quite known how to contain Big Ben, and although his numbers against Baltimore are not spectacular (save their 2007 meeting in Pittsburgh, when Roethlisburger threw five touchdowns and recorded a perfect QB rating), he’s always able to make plays down the stretch when it matters. 

As a side note, this Pittsburgh team scares me.  I mean, besides the fact they cannot beat the Patriots (let alone go into Foxboro and do it), the 2010 Steelers verge on “scary good.”  I’ve looked for past ways in which I’ve tried to sell them as posers (2007: Easy schedule; 2008: Couldn’t run the ball and turned the ball over too much; 2009: Couldn’t win games they were supposed to) but I really cannot find much to say.  They’ve solved their running and turnover issues, you can’t run against them, and they played better on the road than at home.  They did beat up on crummy teams this year while losing to good ones, but heaven forbid, they wouldn’t be the Pittsburgh Steelers if they didn’t do that each year.  Thank God they can’t beat Tom Brady.  (Side note: I was going to end that last paragraph with a “. . . right?” but I’ll save that unparalleled degree of pessimism for next week).

Playoff Doppelganger: 1998 AFC Divisional Round – Denver 38, Miami 3.  This was Elway’s final season, when the Broncos started off 13-0 and was the first in a string of “teams that won their first ten games and made people believe the 1972 Dolphins may have gotten anxious” (honorary list includes: 2003 Chiefs, 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, and, the most laughable team, the Kerry Collins-led 2008 Titans).  Miami had beaten Denver earlier in the year, and yes, these two teams “really hated each other.”  The Broncos wanted to show, once and for all, that it really wasn’t much of a contest between the two.   Plus, I hated the late-1990s Broncos as much as I hate the Roethlisburger-era Steelers.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 6.

Green Bay vs. Atlanta, 8:00 E.T. Saturday Fox
Level of infuriation: 5

This matchup gets a five on my scale because the winner of this hard-fought battle between the NFC’s two best remaining teams gets the sanctimonious honor and privilege of moving on and playing (drumroll please) the winner of Seahawks-Bears.  And if the Packers win, they have to go on the road again, even though, by that point, they would have more than proven to be the NFC’s best and most deserving team of a home game.  Remember how during the NFC’s run of dominance in Super Bowls from the early 80s to the late 90s, most people would consider the NFC Championship the “real” Super Bowl?  For all intensive purposes, let’s just consider this matchup the “real” NFC Championship Game.

I am, in fact, picking the Packers in this game for a few important reasons.  First, let’s address the Falcons.  Can anyone recall a more bland 13-win team with a number one seed?  (Again, excluding all 2008 Tennessee Titans jokes).   Sure, they have a few impressive wins (they swept Tampa, beat the Ravens, Packers, and the Saints in New Orleans) and have one of the most fearsome young offensive trio in the game this side of Aikman-Smith-Irvin.  They don’t turn the ball over much, and are exceptional at home (oh yes, they beat the Seahawks, too.  Amazing, huh?)  But they sure are bland.  They don’t run the ball as well as you think, Matt Ryan still hasn’t won a playoff game, and Roddy White is their only quality receiver.  Plus, bland #1 seeds never go all the way.  Numerous examples from history prove this, even beyond the NFL (recent examples include the 1994 Atlanta Hawks, the 2001 Houston Astros, and David Archuleta on Season 7 of American Idol.  Hold on, did I really just make an American Idol reference?)

The Packers lost to the Falcons in Atlanta earlier this season, but outgained them by over 120 yards, and lost on a last-second field goal.  They were terrific last week in blitzing Michael Vick and forcing him to make poor throws, including that costly end zone interception.  They virtually eliminated the running game, which will be critical for Atlanta to establish early to control the tempo of the game.  Green Bay is, of course, one of the league’s most versatile teams, and can play fast-tempo or slow.  They finally found a potential replacement for Ryan Grant in Rookie RB James Starks, which took the pressure off Aaron Rodgers (nonetheless throwing TD passes to Brandon Jackson, James Jones, and Tom Crabtree; it’s safe to say Rodgers is excelling in the Brady school of anonymous receivers.)   It may be strange to say this for a team that lost three of its final six regular-season games, but the Packers really have come together in these last several weeks of the season to form a team that no one wants to play.

And yet the top seed in the NFC gets to take them on (let me remind you again, the Falcons beat the Seahawks 34-18 in Seattle less than a month ago; if I were a Falcons fan, I’d be upset my team didn’t manage to lose more games this season.  Can anyone say, “Trade for JaMarcus Russell?”)  This will be a hard-fought game which will ultimately come down to which playoff team is more experienced and less prone to stupid mistakes.  This also my lock for the one playoff game this weekend that will actually be close.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 NFC Divisional Round – New York 21, Dallas 17.  A pretty inexperienced Dallas squad had swept the season series with the Giants, but Eli Manning and crew pulled everything together down the stretch in miraculous fashion.  The Packers are arguably even more talented than that New York team was,

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 20.

New York Jets vs. New England, 4:30 E.T. Sunday CBS
Level of infuriation: 1

Ah, it’s nice to have a return to the basics in the NFL playoffs.  The better team wins.  The better team gets homefield advantage.  The better team has Tom Brady as its quarterback.

For all the stupidity of last weekend, it feels better than ever as a lifetime Pats fan to savor in this.  Mark Sanchez.  On the road.  Coming off a six-touchdown defeat in the teams’ last meeting.  Tom Brady.  At home.  Where he hasn’t lost in four years (we’re conveniently going to throw out last year’s Ravens debacle).  Coming off eight straight wins (each scoring 30+ points), and 11 straight games without an interception. 

I’ll stop writing this way.  As though it were a movie preview.  For the hilarious new comedy from the director of Step Brothers.  But really, the breakdown for this game can be entirely contained within a few brief, concise sentences: The Patriots are a far better team, there’s no way anyone can stop them in Foxboro, and the Jets are probably the most favorable matchup for them.  Although Revis Island clearly demonstrated he’s still a force in shutting down Reggie Wayne last weekend, it won’t have the same detrimental effect on the Patriots’ offense if he guards, say, Deion Branch.  Tom Brady can adjust by throwing some basic out routes to his two tight ends or Wes Welker.  Add in the “Belichick personal vendetta factor” (i.e. if the Patriots are up by 28 with two minutes to go in the half, he’ll still pound it into the end zone)

A few thoughts about the Patriots: I know everyone has discussed how the ’07-’09 era in New England will be remembered for the unstoppable force that was Brady to Moss.  But this year’s team proved that without Moss, the Patriots fit their ’03-’06 “Reche Caldwell is the number one receiver” mode which, frankly, fit their system much better than “Hurl it down the field to Moss and go up by five touchdowns” mode.  Actually, as a diehard Pats fan, this team reminded me far more of the ’03 Pats (my personal favorite New England squad) than the “historic” ’07 team: Excellent record against 10+ win teams (’03: 7-0, ’10: 6-1), double tight end set (’03: Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria, ’10: Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski), and a superb defense down the stretch to march into the playoffs (’03 Pats: Shutouts in three of its final four home games, ’10 Pats: A touchdown or less in four of its final five games.)  Although statistically the ’10 Patriots are much stronger than the ’03 team, I’m less confident about this year’s team winning the Super Bowl; there was no way that ’03 team was going to lose.  After all, the effects of David Tyree will never fully disappear.  But I can at least say I’m optimistic about their chances.

Playoff doppelganger: 2006 AFC Divisional Round – New England 37, New York 16.  OK, maybe a no-brainer, but the ‘06 Jets had also beaten the Patriots in the regular season (Tom Brady’s most recent regular-season home loss).  No way were the Pats going to let that happen again.

Prediction: New England 38, New York 20.