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2010 NFL Playoff Predictions:
Conference Championships
Article by
Zach Saltz
Posted - 01/21/11
I suppose any
logical Patriots fan should know that New England is now a
cursed franchise.
After blowing Super Bowl 42 to
the Helmet Catch and a guy so inept he shot himself, they
lose their quarterback in 2008, suffer through “4th
and 2” and an embarrassing blowout playoff loss at home in
2009, and now, in 2010, get outplayed by a team they beat by
six touchdowns only weeks earlier.
Maybe the lesson of the
Patriots was to avoid too much success, too early.
Maybe the lesson of this year’s
Patriots (and, for that matter, the ’07 squad) is to avoid
blowing too many teams out because then you forget how to
play with urgency in crunch time (evidenced by last week’s
pathetic seven-and-a-half minute fourth quarter drive when
they were
still down by ten.)
Maybe the lesson is to avoid
glossing over New York teams.
Maybe they are simply the
sports equivalent of Hilary Swank: going from nowhere to
improbably winning two Best Actress Oscars in a span of five
years, and then breaking up with Chad Lowe, making dud after
dud (The
Black Dahlia,
Freedom Writers,
Amelia,
and
Conviction)
and still being made fun of for looking like a guy.
Hell, she actually looks a
little like Tom Brady (who shares the same initials as her
most famous onscreen role, Teena Brandon).
The Patriots were
outplayed last Sunday, just as the Saints, Ducks, and Ravens
were themselves, in completing arguably the most depressing
nine day span of football in my lifetime.
At least with the Saints,
Ducks, and Ravens, it came down to one big play that
ultimately clinched the victory for their foe (the Marshawn
Lynch run, the ultra-questionable Michael Dyer “His elbow
was down!” run, and the ridiculous 3rd-and-19
catch by Anonymous Steeler Receiver).
There was no single play that
epitomized the outcome of the game; just small, stupid plays
by the Patriots that added up to a pretty clear loss by the
mid-third quarter.
The interception by Brady.
The end zone drop by Crumpler.
The botched fake punt.
The 7-and-a-half minute drive.
The Cromartie onside kick
return.
So here’s the
question: Can football be salvaged in these next few weeks?
Statistically speaking, there
is a 75 percent chance the answer could be yes, if the
Packers, Bears, or Jets win the Super Bowl.
But they won’t.
Come on, you know they won’t.
This season will once again end
in victorious ecstasy for the idiotic towel-waving fans of a
city which doesn’t seem aware that it has a baseball team,
too.
It will end with more Troy
Polamalu shampoo commercials, and Big Ben sexually
assaulting more women,
Mike Tomlin guest-starring on
House
playing Omar Epps’ twin brother, and
Rooney Mara turning into a sex symbol.
Without further ado, here is my
pessimistic outlook on life, starting with the most
pessimistic first:
NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
All right, let’s
get my hate for Pittsburgh out of the way before we actually
cover this game.
Here are the mind-boggling
stats: Since 2005 (when they and the refs won Super Bowl XL)
and including this coming week, the Steelers will have
played six playoff games.
Four were at home, two were the
Super Bowl.
None of the opponents in these
six playoff games were seeded higher than four.
During this stretch, the
Steelers have played only one quarterback who has appeared
in the Super Bowl (Kurt Warner), and in four games, their
defense allowed 24 points or more.
So before we
start crowing them the “Team of the Decade” over the
2001-2007 Patriots, let’s remember that during that time,
New England played five away games (three of which were AFC
Championship games), and had ten games where they held
opponents to 17 points or fewer.
11 of its 17 opponents were
seeded third or higher and, frankly, its Super Bowl
competition was much stiffer (’01 St. Louis, ’03 Carolina,
’04 Philadelphia, and ’07 NY Giants vs. ’05 Seattle and ’08
Arizona).
So let’s just remember this
before we buy into any of Terry Bradshaw’s crap that this
Pittsburgh team is truly the team of the decade.
I really would
like to think that the Jets can pose problems for the
Steelers.
There are certainly positive
signs: They just went on the road and held two of the NFL’s
top-four scoring teams (featuring quarterbacks with a
combined six Super Bowl appearances) to 16 and 21 points,
respectively.
Let’s
also not forget that they went into Pittsburgh last month
and upended them on their own soil (albeit, with Polamalu
MIA.)
I know this may be hard to
stomach at first, but in a way, this year’s Jets almost
remind me of . . . (wait for it) . . . the 2005 Steelers.
The parallels are certainly
there: Shaky quarterback in his second season suddenly
beginning to look good (Roethlisburger and Sanchez), veteran
runningback never on a championship team (Jerome Bettis and
LaDanian Tomlinson) complemented by second-year speedster
(Willie Parker and Shonn Greene), loaded defense, fiery
coach, a “never say die” attitude, both seeded sixth but
with 11 regular-season wins, and both beat Peyton Manning in
Indianapolis.
Like this year’s Jets, it was
the Steelers’ second straight appearance in the AFC
Championship Game in 2005, but unlike this year’s Jets,
their competition was a little tamer: Jake Plummer and the
Denver Broncos.
(Side Note: That
was the worst year ever in the NFL.
Seriously.
Seattle and Pittsburgh in the
Super Bowl, with Denver not far behind, Brady loses his
first playoff game, the Colts self-destruct, and the Vikings
suffer through the Love Boat scandal and still finish 9-7.
On a related note, my fantasy
football team started 8-3, but lost its last four games to
miss the playoffs, with the last game decided on a . . .
[wait for it] . . . Alge Crumpler dropped pass in the end
zone.
Eerie.)
You could have
convinced me that the Jets had a fighting chance at the
beginning of the week.
They were tough, unintimidated,
and not afraid to mouth off to opponents.
But since then, Rex Ryan and
the team have done something unthinkable: They’ve completely
changed their identity
out of respect
for the Steelers.
Huh?
So you go into the playoffs
claiming you’re not frightened of Manning or Brady, and
would love to take it to both of them . . . but you call the
Steelers one of the best teams in the league, and that it is
an honor to play them?
Why, Rex Ryan, have you
completely changed your identity and the identity of the
team?
Antonio Cromartie, where are
you?
Braylon Edwards, Jason Taylor?
Even Santonio Holmes – this was
the team that you won a Super Bowl for that gave up on you!
LT, this was the team that beat
you in each of the last two seasons!
Maybe they will
start talking as the game gets closer.
But there seems to be a
contentment about the Jets which is profoundly disturbing.
They seem happy to simply beat
the Colts (who beat them in the Championship last year) and
the Pats (their divisional foe).
It’s like they’ve achieved
their goals for the year, and are happy to bow their heads
to the superior team.
For a team so loud and brash,
not a single Jet has even uttered the words “Super Bowl.”
Quiet, determined, and
taciturn, this team’s identity is not.
When
has a team ever had success when it changed its identity so
abruptly?
So instead of
believing that they can dictate the pace of the game, keep
the Pittsburgh offense on the sideline by converting
short third downs, and have a
mistake-free Sanchez make big throws when he needs to (all
things they did in their last two playoff games), I believe
the Jets will trail early, be forced to throw, make
turnovers, and give up third downs to anonymous Pittsburgh
receivers.
I don’t even think the referees
will have to work that hard to ensure a Steeler victory –
maybe 2-3 bogus calls on the Jets, and 4-5 no-calls on the
Steelers.
Last week’s early 21-7 Ravens
lead had me elated, but it was misleading; Baltimore’s
offense did nothing the entire game, and Pittsburgh made a
handful of stupid mistakes early on.
The Jets may be able to force
the Steelers into a few dumb plays, but their offense, like
the Ravens, will not be able to consistently move the ball,
on the ground or through the air.
Playoff doppelganger:
2008 AFC Championship Game – Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14.
The sixth-seeded Ravens could
never recover from a 13-0 deficit, and although they got
close a couple times, Roethlisburger always had an answer,
especially on third-down conversions.
I left midway through the third
quarter so I really couldn’t tell you much about the game,
but I have a feeling I might be leaving this game earlier.
Prediction:
Pittsburgh 27, NY Jets 17
Green Bay vs. Chicago, 3:00 PM ET, Fox
OK, here’s the
good news: Aaron Rodgers has played magnificent over the
last two weeks, and the Packers look like the odds-on
favorites to win it all at this point.
They’ve developed a strong
running game, forcing turnovers, and have a passing game
that seems unstoppable (it makes you wonder how
anyone
was able to hold this team to two touchdowns or fewer in
four games.)
But let’s remember that the
Falcons were never all that good to begin with (like I wrote
last week), and Green Bay was able to put up those 48 points
in the comfy confines of a dome.
But at the same
time, I still feel that Chicago is overvalued.
Sure, they looked good last
week . . . against the 8-9 Seahawks.
The running game looked
particularly strong and Jay Cutler didn’t make any mistakes
. . . but it was against the Seahawks.
They did split the season
series with the Bears, but in both games, they were
outgained by the Packers, and owed most of their Week Three
home victory to a late Rodgers interception, not superior
all-around play.
As I noted last week, there
isn’t that much of a home-field advantage with Chicago
because they’ve played erratic at home, and if any team can
play them in the bitter snow and cold, it is Green Bay.
Chicago won last week because
Seattle couldn’t convert on any of its first eight
third-down conversions, and as a result, the Bears were able
to build a four-touchdown lead.
Does anyone really see either
of those things happening this week?
The only chance Chicago really
has is if they dramatically slow down the pace of the game
and force Rodgers into making mistakes.
Now, here’s the
real question: Do the Packers have what it takes to beat the
Steelers?
All signs point to yes.
Last season’s regular-season
meeting between the two was an epic passing contest (886
combined yards through the air and 6 passing TDs) that came
down to a last-second touchdown completion from
Roethlisburger to Wallace.
The Packers are more physical
and aggressive than the Steelers, and do not necessarily
need to establish an effective running game for their
offense to succeed.
It’s a marquee matchup, with
two legendary teams which have never met in the Super Bowl.
Merry Christmas, Roger Goodell.
Playoff doppelganger:
2004 AFC Championship Game – New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.
This was still in the glorious
era when Tom Brady was unbeatable in the playoffs and
Roethlisburger was told just to hand the ball off on
third-and-longs.
Although the game was in
Pittsburgh, New England showed no signs of intimidation and
got out to a huge lead early, with Big Ben making crucial
mistakes.
Prediction:
Green Bay 37, Chicago 10
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