2010 NFL Playoff Predictions: Conference Championships

Article by Zach Saltz

Posted - 01/21/11

I suppose any logical Patriots fan should know that New England is now a cursed franchise.  After blowing Super Bowl 42 to the Helmet Catch and a guy so inept he shot himself, they lose their quarterback in 2008, suffer through “4^th and 2” and an embarrassing blowout playoff loss at home in 2009, and now, in 2010, get outplayed by a team they beat by six touchdowns only weeks earlier.  Maybe the lesson of the Patriots was to avoid too much success, too early.  Maybe the lesson of this year’s Patriots (and, for that matter, the ’07 squad) is to avoid blowing too many teams out because then you forget how to play with urgency in crunch time (evidenced by last week’s pathetic seven-and-a-half minute fourth quarter drive when they were still down by ten.)  Maybe the lesson is to avoid glossing over New York teams.  Maybe they are simply the sports equivalent of Hilary Swank: going from nowhere to improbably winning two Best Actress Oscars in a span of five years, and then breaking up with Chad Lowe, making dud after dud (The Black Dahlia, Freedom Writers, Amelia, and Conviction) and still being made fun of for looking like a guy.  Hell, she actually looks a little like Tom Brady (who shares the same initials as her most famous onscreen role, Teena Brandon).

The Patriots were outplayed last Sunday, just as the Saints, Ducks, and Ravens were themselves, in completing arguably the most depressing nine day span of football in my lifetime.   At least with the Saints, Ducks, and Ravens, it came down to one big play that ultimately clinched the victory for their foe (the Marshawn Lynch run, the ultra-questionable Michael Dyer “His elbow was down!” run, and the ridiculous 3^rd-and-19 catch by Anonymous Steeler Receiver).  There was no single play that epitomized the outcome of the game; just small, stupid plays by the Patriots that added up to a pretty clear loss by the mid-third quarter.  The interception by Brady.  The end zone drop by Crumpler.  The botched fake punt.  The 7-and-a-half minute drive.  The Cromartie onside kick return. 

So here’s the question: Can football be salvaged in these next few weeks?  Statistically speaking, there is a 75 percent chance the answer could be yes, if the Packers, Bears, or Jets win the Super Bowl.  But they won’t.  Come on, you know they won’t.  This season will once again end in victorious ecstasy for the idiotic towel-waving fans of a city which doesn’t seem aware that it has a baseball team, too.  It will end with more Troy Polamalu shampoo commercials, and Big Ben sexually assaulting more women,  Mike Tomlin guest-starring on House playing Omar Epps’ twin brother, and Rooney Mara turning into a sex symbol.  Without further ado, here is my pessimistic outlook on life, starting with the most pessimistic first:

NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh, 6:30 PM ET, CBS

All right, let’s get my hate for Pittsburgh out of the way before we actually cover this game.  Here are the mind-boggling stats: Since 2005 (when they and the refs won Super Bowl XL) and including this coming week, the Steelers will have played six playoff games.  Four were at home, two were the Super Bowl.  None of the opponents in these six playoff games were seeded higher than four.  During this stretch, the Steelers have played only one quarterback who has appeared in the Super Bowl (Kurt Warner), and in four games, their defense allowed 24 points or more. 

So before we start crowing them the “Team of the Decade” over the 2001-2007 Patriots, let’s remember that during that time, New England played five away games (three of which were AFC Championship games), and had ten games where they held opponents to 17 points or fewer.  11 of its 17 opponents were seeded third or higher and, frankly, its Super Bowl competition was much stiffer (’01 St. Louis, ’03 Carolina, ’04 Philadelphia, and ’07 NY Giants vs. ’05 Seattle and ’08 Arizona).  So let’s just remember this before we buy into any of Terry Bradshaw’s crap that this Pittsburgh team is truly the team of the decade.

I really would like to think that the Jets can pose problems for the Steelers.  There are certainly positive signs: They just went on the road and held two of the NFL’s top-four scoring teams (featuring quarterbacks with a combined six Super Bowl appearances) to 16 and 21 points, respectively.  Let’s also not forget that they went into Pittsburgh last month and upended them on their own soil (albeit, with Polamalu MIA.)  I know this may be hard to stomach at first, but in a way, this year’s Jets almost remind me of . . . (wait for it) . . . the 2005 Steelers.  The parallels are certainly there: Shaky quarterback in his second season suddenly beginning to look good (Roethlisburger and Sanchez), veteran runningback never on a championship team (Jerome Bettis and LaDanian Tomlinson) complemented by second-year speedster (Willie Parker and Shonn Greene), loaded defense, fiery coach, a “never say die” attitude, both seeded sixth but with 11 regular-season wins, and both beat Peyton Manning in Indianapolis.  Like this year’s Jets, it was the Steelers’ second straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game in 2005, but unlike this year’s Jets, their competition was a little tamer: Jake Plummer and the Denver Broncos.

(Side Note: That was the worst year ever in the NFL.  Seriously.  Seattle and Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, with Denver not far behind, Brady loses his first playoff game, the Colts self-destruct, and the Vikings suffer through the Love Boat scandal and still finish 9-7.  On a related note, my fantasy football team started 8-3, but lost its last four games to miss the playoffs, with the last game decided on a . . . [wait for it] . . . Alge Crumpler dropped pass in the end zone.  Eerie.)

You could have convinced me that the Jets had a fighting chance at the beginning of the week.  They were tough, unintimidated, and not afraid to mouth off to opponents.  But since then, Rex Ryan and the team have done something unthinkable: They’ve completely changed their identity out of respect for the Steelers.  Huh?  So you go into the playoffs claiming you’re not frightened of Manning or Brady, and would love to take it to both of them . . . but you call the Steelers one of the best teams in the league, and that it is an honor to play them?  Why, Rex Ryan, have you completely changed your identity and the identity of the team?  Antonio Cromartie, where are you?  Braylon Edwards, Jason Taylor?  Even Santonio Holmes – this was the team that you won a Super Bowl for that gave up on you!  LT, this was the team that beat you in each of the last two seasons! 

Maybe they will start talking as the game gets closer.  But there seems to be a contentment about the Jets which is profoundly disturbing.  They seem happy to simply beat the Colts (who beat them in the Championship last year) and the Pats (their divisional foe).  It’s like they’ve achieved their goals for the year, and are happy to bow their heads to the superior team.  For a team so loud and brash, not a single Jet has even uttered the words “Super Bowl.”  Quiet, determined, and taciturn, this team’s identity is not.  When has a team ever had success when it changed its identity so abruptly?

So instead of believing that they can dictate the pace of the game, keep the Pittsburgh offense on the sideline by converting  short third downs, and have a mistake-free Sanchez make big throws when he needs to (all things they did in their last two playoff games), I believe the Jets will trail early, be forced to throw, make turnovers, and give up third downs to anonymous Pittsburgh receivers.  I don’t even think the referees will have to work that hard to ensure a Steeler victory – maybe 2-3 bogus calls on the Jets, and 4-5 no-calls on the Steelers.  Last week’s early 21-7 Ravens lead had me elated, but it was misleading; Baltimore’s offense did nothing the entire game, and Pittsburgh made a handful of stupid mistakes early on.  The Jets may be able to force the Steelers into a few dumb plays, but their offense, like the Ravens, will not be able to consistently move the ball, on the ground or through the air.

Playoff doppelganger: 2008 AFC Championship Game – Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14.  The sixth-seeded Ravens could never recover from a 13-0 deficit, and although they got close a couple times, Roethlisburger always had an answer, especially on third-down conversions.  I left midway through the third quarter so I really couldn’t tell you much about the game, but I have a feeling I might be leaving this game earlier.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, NY Jets 17 

Green Bay vs. Chicago, 3:00 PM ET, Fox

OK, here’s the good news: Aaron Rodgers has played magnificent over the last two weeks, and the Packers look like the odds-on favorites to win it all at this point.  They’ve developed a strong running game, forcing turnovers, and have a passing game that seems unstoppable (it makes you wonder how anyone was able to hold this team to two touchdowns or fewer in four games.)  But let’s remember that the Falcons were never all that good to begin with (like I wrote last week), and Green Bay was able to put up those 48 points in the comfy confines of a dome. 

But at the same time, I still feel that Chicago is overvalued.  Sure, they looked good last week . . . against the 8-9 Seahawks.  The running game looked particularly strong and Jay Cutler didn’t make any mistakes . . . but it was against the Seahawks.  They did split the season series with the Bears, but in both games, they were outgained by the Packers, and owed most of their Week Three home victory to a late Rodgers interception, not superior all-around play.  As I noted last week, there isn’t that much of a home-field advantage with Chicago because they’ve played erratic at home, and if any team can play them in the bitter snow and cold, it is Green Bay.  Chicago won last week because Seattle couldn’t convert on any of its first eight third-down conversions, and as a result, the Bears were able to build a four-touchdown lead.  Does anyone really see either of those things happening this week?  The only chance Chicago really has is if they dramatically slow down the pace of the game and force Rodgers into making mistakes.

Now, here’s the real question: Do the Packers have what it takes to beat the Steelers?  All signs point to yes.  Last season’s regular-season meeting between the two was an epic passing contest (886 combined yards through the air and 6 passing TDs) that came down to a last-second touchdown completion from Roethlisburger to Wallace.   The Packers are more physical and aggressive than the Steelers, and do not necessarily need to establish an effective running game for their offense to succeed.  It’s a marquee matchup, with two legendary teams which have never met in the Super Bowl.  Merry Christmas, Roger Goodell.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Championship Game – New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.  This was still in the glorious era when Tom Brady was unbeatable in the playoffs and Roethlisburger was told just to hand the ball off on third-and-longs.  Although the game was in Pittsburgh, New England showed no signs of intimidation and got out to a huge lead early, with Big Ben making crucial mistakes. 

Prediction: Green Bay 37, Chicago 10