Super Bowl XLV Predictions

Article by Zach Saltz

Posted - 2/6/11

At the beginning of the year, I predicted the Packers would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl . . . and I also predicted that the Steelers would finish last in their division.  OK, it made a little more sense at the time: The defense seemed to be getting old (Polamalu had not been healthy in over a year), Roethlisburger would miss four games on the outset, Santonio Holmes was gone, and, well, I hate them.  Meanwhile, the Browns looked great down the stretch in ’09, the Ravens were . . . well, the Ravens, and the Bengals were defending a division title.  But hey, at least I got half of my Super Bowl prediction correct.  Also of note from that historic article were the now-infamous sentences: “I like the 49ers,” “[The Houston Texans] would be a solid contender in any division other than the AFC South,” and “I like the Redskins, too.”

So you can at least trust my opinion when it comes to the NFC (as long as it is not a team quarterbacked by Donovan McNabb).  So here’s what I’m thinking for how the Packers will perform this Sunday: Uh, pretty well.  This is a team that hasn’t trailed by more than a touchdown at any point all season long – a historic level of greatness that the NFL hasn’t seen in nearly 50 years.  And this ability to respond to deficits will work well in the Packers favor; one of the keys to Pittsburgh Steelers football is building early leads of 10-0 and 14-3 and holding on to them for dear life down the stretch (see their game against the Jets two weeks ago). 

One unoriginal idea that has been overplayed is how Green Bay will excel in an indoor stadium on artificial turf.  I don’t put too much of a steak into this claim.  Sure, they put up 48 points in the Georgia Dome three weeks ago, but the Packers’ record indoors this year was only 2-2.  What I do buy into is that the Packers’ defense (not surprisingly) plays better on the grass and in cold weather: Of the five regular season games where they allowed 270 yards or less, all were outdoors and four were played after November 7.  The bottom line is, some first quarter jitters aside, I’m not liking the chances of this being a low-scoring, physical, defensive affair – ironic since, of course, these are the number one and number two scoring defenses in the league, respectively.

Green Bay will need to score points to win – in games where they score 20 points or fewer, they are only 2-4 (in games of 21+ points, including the playoffs, the Packers are 13-2).  They will need to force turnovers as well; the Pack are 10-1 in games where its opponent had two or more turnovers. One has to believe that Aaron Rodgers will play well, since no defense has appeared to sufficiently intimidate him yet.  Last year, he threw for 383 yards and 3 TDs against a Polamalu-less Steelers secondary.  Since the Pittsburgh defensive line has looked stellar all season and the Packers’ running game has been one of the team’s biggest question marks, Green Bay’s key to success will be completing many short passes, picking up first downs, and keeping the Pittsburgh offense off the field.  There’s no reason to think they will not have a fair amount of success doing this against the Steelers.

So I guess, in a strange way, it isn’t too difficult to calculate what Green Bay needs to do, and what they will do, in Super Bowl 45.  Rodgers will throw at least two touchdowns, and they’ll score over 20 points.  They’ll force two turnovers.  I would bet my life on all this.  What is more difficult to predict – and, ultimately, more important to predict – is how Pittsburgh will play.

Will this be the same team that ran the ball with extreme ease, dominated the time of possession, and went up by multiple scores early, like they did against the Jets?  Or will they look like they did in the first half of their divisional playoff matchup against the Ravens – sluggish, unable to move the ball, turning over the ball stupidly, and giving up a bunch of sacks?  Ultimately the Steelers won that game, of course, but it took a two-touchdown comeback, two questionable calls (the holding call on the Ravens’ punt return TD and the no-call on the hold during the Mendenhall TD), and a ridiculous 3^rd-and-19 conversion.  And if Roethlisburger doesn’t convert that gutsy third down pass at the end of the Jets game, and Sanchez gets the ball back . . . well, I’m not completely convinced the Jets would have scored a touchdown in under two minutes with no timeouts, but it would have been interesting. 

Here’s the bottom line: The Steelers are the kind of team that builds a lead and barely holds on to it down the stretch (the best example of this was Super Bowl XLIII).  More than any single team of the last five years, they’ve won games they’ve deserved to lose.  This season, they won at least three games they probably should have lost: Versus Baltimore (the last-minute Flacco fumble), Buffalo (the Stevie Johnson “How could God have done this to me” end zone drop), and Miami (the Gene Singatore call).  On the complete flip side, the Rodgers-era Packers have blown more games they’ve deserved to win than any other team in recent memory.  This season, they blew two overtime games against the Dolphins and Redskins, and, as three weeks ago demonstrated, they should have beat the Falcons in Atlanta during the regular season.  Every Packers fan was secretly holding his breath after Caleb Hanie threw that touchdown pass two weeks ago.  Of the 21 defeats that Rodgers has experienced since he took over as starter in 2008, 16 were by a touchdown or less (including last season’s one-point loss to Pittsburgh).  Likewise, 8 of the Steelers’ 14 victories this season (including the playoffs) have been by eight points or fewer.  Similar stats, vastly different stories.  It’s also worth noting that when the Steelers lose, it tends to be by larger margins (their 10 and 13-point defeats against the pass-happy Saints and Patriots), and the Packers blow teams out.

So, if the Steelers win, it will be close, and if the Packers emerge victorious, it will probably be by ten or more points.  I guess conventional wisdom would favor the team that wins games it doesn’t deserve to win as opposed to the team that blows games it should have had in the bag.  But as Bill Simmons has pointed out, Pittsburgh is due for a dud with all of their injuries and close calls; and given the fact that the Packers’ offensive scheme most resembles New England’s, the one team that seems to be Pittsburgh’s kryptonite (the Steelers are 1-6 against Tom Brady), and given the fact that Pouncey’s injury at center will enable Clay Matthews to potentially massacre Roethlisburger, it’s hard to believe Pittsburgh will be ready for the way the Packers have come together these last few weeks.  Still, it’s hard to honestly pick against a team that has won two Super Bowls in the last five years, converts more third downs than hair follicles on Troy Palumalu’s magnificent scalp, and has an officiating crew that favors them in every single game.  But it is more fun to pick the Pack, and given the Ducks’ horrible loss against Auburn, it would be redeeming to see the team in green finally emerge on top.

Prediction (hope): Green Bay 34, Pittsburgh 22.
Prediction (realistic): Pittsburgh . . . no, let’s just stay with “hope.”

Playoff Doppelganger: Last year’s Super Bowl – New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17.  Why not?  Powerful NFC offensive juggernaut against a more experienced, but softer AFC squad with injury concerns.  The Packers haven’t had the luxury of playing Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez at home – the two pansy quarterbacks both Pittsburgh and Indy faced on both their roads to the Super Bowl – and are more likely to play gutsy, like the Saints last year.  Plus, after the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl on the final drive, the Steelers beat the Cardinals the next year in virtually the same way.  What’s to say the Packers won’t win in the same fashion New Orleans did last year?  I’m totally calling a 74-yard BJ Raji interception return for a score in the last few minutes.